An Independent Scotland

[Ben]

A yes vote in Scotland would unleash the most dangerous thing of all - hope:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ng-of-all-hope

[holzz]

I'm English...I want a yes vote!!

Why?

We don't need Scotland...

We're not a poor country, and we don't need to export oil and gas.

And fuck Trident, I don't see why we need nukes anyhow (Germany hasn't got them, they do fine).

And the Act of Union was only signed out of convenience anyhow. Scotland had fucked up their colonialism and England didn't want a potential ally of France.

Let them go, I don't really give a shit either way.

[MaleChromosome]

If Scotland chooses to leave the UK then their membership of the EU lapses. This is the position of the European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso "If part of the territory of a member state would cease to be part of that state because it were to become a new independent state, the (EU) treaties would no longer apply to that territory," Barroso said, meaning an independent Scotland would no longer be part of the EU."

If Scotland reapplies to the EU then every member state must agree and Spain will have to consider the effect this would have on the Catalans and their own drive for independence.
There could well be an EU fudge allowing EU privileges to Scotland after a Yes vote and a fast track application process but under EU rules Scotland would have to accept the Euro and if an EU membership application were to fail then what?

Re NATO membership - NATO is pro nuke, NATO members "share" nuclear weapons and there are plenty of American nuclear weapons in Germany, Greece, Belgium, Canada etc. This allow Germany to have an anti-nuke policy but in reality is armed to the teeth.

For me the real clincher is the pensions position. Pensions are paid from General taxation not from some pot of money built up over the years. Yes, you pay NI for your working life but the payments made to you in retirement are funded from other peoples income tax. If Scotland votes Yes then the pension burden falls upon the taxpayers of Scotland and NOT the rUK. Why risk your personal financial future on a tax pool of 2.5million Scottish tax payers rather than the 30 million combined UK tax population?

Ship building, IF Scotland votes Yes and becomes a part of the EU then the rUK government MUST put tenders out to the whole EU. If the German or Polish ship yards are cheaper then the tender MUST go there. Independence will take away the opportunity for the MoD to place work with Scotland, it will be open tender.

This vote is for a permanent independence not one on which you can renege if the oil runs out or the employers relocate. Oil is a volatile commodity. OPEC could raise production. US shale gas production is ramping up and there is currently a surplus in production. Yes, this will change and that is the point. Oil is finite, independence is forever.

I don't think that devolution is a bad idea at all but it do think that the current position doesn't include answers to crucial questions. The rUK will be sitting pretty as a successor state. Scotland can default on its financial obligations to London and the market will decide what it thinks about that. I'm sure the Scots hate the Tories and a London based parliament but have certainty on what you are voting for before risking financial decline.

[flabbybody]

Latest poll indicates vote for independence next week will be defeated and Scotland will remain in UK. Sterling rallying against dollar confirming that financial markets believe polling data is correct.

[Prospero]

But the polls are very erratic. I think it is too close to call.

[flabbybody]

any idea what the latest odds are in the London books?

[Stavros]

Bookmakers give longer odds for the 'Yes' campaign, with odds-on prices for the 'No' campaign. A comparison with the passionate campaign for a separate Quebec which failed suggests that people prefer a status quo rather than radical change, and that what was true of Quebec in 1995 will be true of Scotland in 2014.
Although the 'Yes' campaign have achieved something no other independence campaign has matched -making independence look like a reality-, bookies believe many people tell pollsters they will vote 'Yes' rather than admit they will vote 'No'; but there are still many undecided voters, and it is not clear who the 16-17 year old group who are allowed to vote will choose. 97% of the adult population in Scotland has registered to vote suggesting the turnout of 63.8% in the last General Election in 2010 will rise to 80% or more next week. Postal votes have already been cast.

Bookies odds:
http://www.justbookies.com/election-...FY_ItAod9BsApA

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...on-97-per-cent

[flabbybody]

spot on analysis Stavros.
I agree that polls are skewed in favor of YES and handicappers see reality more clearly.

[flabbybody]

Election eve Flabbybody prediction from across the pond:
Late wave of big business media campaign will tap into voters' fears of NATO-less, UK- less, EU- less Scotland. NO will win by a surprisingly easy margin of victory.
Stavros Quebec analogy is brilliant as always. The radical change folks always have a louder bark than bite in these type of affairs. They can fool the polls but not the bookies.

[blueeyeboy]

Thoughts?if the jocks break away how will it affect the ts world