UK Election June 08

[Jericho]

I understand it was an enormous shortfall from expectations for May, but if everyone concedes May ran a terrible campaign, and Corbyn cannot muster a majority, does that mean the votes are not there? The logic would seem that there is no path to victory for Labour if the best candidate could not win against someone who did not campaign.

Yes, May ran a terrible campaign, the worst I ever remember (granted, that's not really saying much)! But, from the very start, to the very finish, Corbyn was vilified in the press.

How much does that equal out?

I honestly don't know.

[Stavros]

Actually, I think there is an answer to that question. It's a categoric no. A different leader would not have won Labour a better result than the one they have. Don't ask me what *it* is, but Corbyn has *It*, X, whatever you want to call it. As mad as it seems, people like him!

If I take your post with Peejaye's about 'the establishment' then I see the points, and there was a sharp contrast in tone between the campaigns as well as most but not all of the content. Crucially I think that the agenda of state intervention that we thought had been made redundant by years or Thatcherism has been successfully revived, but I also think that since 2008 a large part of it is shaped by that 'British' sense of fairness, that people are not so much bothered by rich people as the widening gap between rich and poor and the fact that the middle has been squeezed so that people who maybe once were at least a degree or two over the poverty line feel too close to it now, or are under it.

The problem with the campaign for me, is that it was exciting theatre, a show, but offered people policies that cannot be delivered at the level or with the success desired. I sometimes wonder if these people ever stand back and look at the state of the economy today, something that was barely discussed in the election, quite apart from what the economy could look like in ten years time. I concede that for all I know the UK might flourish outside the EU, but I doubt it for at least ten years because I don't see how the UK can adjust to leaving a 40-year old relationship with all its entanglements without suffering in the short to medium term. Those ten years could be the last best ten years of my life, a wasted ten years for an 18 or 20 year old with no guarantee that things will get better, a lost ten years for people who should be at their peak and achieving things in their 40s and 50s they can only hope they will get to do in their 50s and 60s.

Then there is the level of hypocrisy from a party that was responsible for the 'regulation lite' which enabled the banking system to borrow itself into infinity as if the day would never come when a lender asked for his money back, a party that failed utterly to make change the housing sector to stop it growing out of the reach of small-income earners, and a party that presided over an expansion of our apartheid education sector, when it could have made changes to make it more equal and relevant to the generation emerging from childhood. There was not one discussion of curriculum development in this election, but it is the most important aspect of schooling other than funding, just as there was not a single discussion of the impact technology has had and will continue to have on the world of work, the creation of jobs and wealth, the complex problem of communications beyond state control and so on. And if this is such a different party under Corbyn, what is the reasoning behind Trident and a defence strategy that could be written in the Conservative Party's central office? It may have been a campaign of hope, but where was, what was the vision, and was it more a dream than reality?

Labour tailored its campaign to operate in its comfort zone, and fair play to them for that, but they want to win elections rather than go into the details of what happens when they win, and don't want to be accountable for what they did in the past, unless they can cherry pick the juicy bits and let the rotten ones stay on the vine. And let's also be honest that Labour's campaign looked good because the Conservative campaign was so bad. It might not be bad next time, but if Labour has re-established itself as a credible party of government, the next election may not produce a result much different from the one we have now.

And who knows for sure, but given the challenges of Brexit, we may need a 'government of national unity' to get through it. And if 80% of the electorate choose either Labour or Conservative MPs, would that not be the logical democratic outcome?

[peejaye]

An interesting fact I was texted last night;
Jeremy Corbyn was only 2,227 votes from being in No.10 Downing Street.
Difference in votes in the marginals!
Supporters of the "Far right" should be very concerned, we are coming to get you!

[broncofan]

An interesting fact I was texted last night;
Jeremy Corbyn was only 2,227 votes from being in No.10 Downing Street.
Difference in votes in the marginals!
Supporters of the "Far right" should be very concerned, we are coming to get you!

There is a danger in only isolating what you can improve upon and not realizing the other side can make changes too. If Jeremy can get 2227 more votes, then why can't the Conservative party run a more effective candidate and consolidate more support? I'm not saying this to play devil's advocate or antagonize Jeremy...without question he stunningly exceeded expectations and nearly won in a campaign he was expected to flop in, but it's very tough to identify whether the campaign was more a referendum on May's popularity or Corbyn's.

I think a lot of columnists have written columns acknowledging that they underestimated Corbyn's appeal. Perhaps he has broader likability than a lot of people recognized, but are you sure he's the only ONE to represent your party? The only reason I say this is because you are seeing the fact that he surpassed expectations as a moral victory, but it's actual victories that establish a mandate to govern.

[Stavros]

An interesting fact I was texted last night;
Jeremy Corbyn was only 2,227 votes from being in No.10 Downing Street.
Difference in votes in the marginals!
Supporters of the "Far right" should be very concerned, we are coming to get you!

Come on Peejaye, you know we don't elect on the popular vote here, we elect MPs to represent a place, and that is the seat that counts in the Commons. And Labour lost in marginals it might have won if -well, someone else was leader? What was remarkable about the 1997 victory was the fact that Labour won seats in the south-east that were supposed to be safe Tory bolt-holes as well as in Scotland, and it is the spread of seats that a party needs to win and claim to represent the whole country.

The irony of all this is that if we had Proportional Representation UKIP could have been in the coalition government of 2010-2015, but even without it, we have the DUP supporting the government, if not in a formal coalition, in an informal arrangement, and let's face it, this is not the old Ulster Unionist Party that took the Tory whip from 1921-1973, but the religious extremists who want to restore the death penalty, outlaw abortion, and think LGBTQIAPN/B are an abomination. It is as crazy as Israel where a secular party governs with the support of relgious extremists who can barely scrape together 4% of the vote. And it won't last long.

[peejaye]

Yes; I know all that Stavros. Biggest surprises for me on the night were Canterbury going Labour & I almost fell off the sofa when Middlesbrough South & Cleveland went Tory! Not sure but maybe the North York Moors falls into this category& towns like Stokesley?
I just thought the 2,227 was an interesting fact.
I see the scapegoats are falling, Mr's Mays campaign advisors biting the dust! Anyone bar her; Well, at least for now.

[Lanarkshire]

So how do the Tory voters here feel about the government being held to ransom by the DUP? A party which thinks gay sex is an abomination and should be made illegal?

[Laphroaig]

May won't last 5 years, it's an impossibility! If there's another General Election this year, Corbyn will get a landslide especially if the opponent is Boris Johnson. A lot of people didn't vote Corbyn because the Media said he couldn't win. If it wasn't for some of our friends "North of the border", Corbyn may of got in. This is an amazing result for the Labour Party & will silence many of their critics, of which they were many!
At long last; We now have a choice again between two different Parties, the far right, renamed "Centre right" by Murdoch & co. & the Left.
With Br-exit talks opening very soon I wouldn't want to be Mr's May, woman's a glutton for punishment of which I have no sympathy.

You may well be correct about the Tory revival in Scotland preventing Corbyn from becoming Prime Minister. However, Ruth Davidson is one of the few to come out of this election with her reputation enhanced. Her recent statements, in response to the Tory/DUP coalition, that her commitment to LGBT rights comes before her party have only reinforced that. For the first time ever, we may be seeing an honourable Tory politician.

As a footnote, Labours cause in Scotland was not helped by the constant bickering between Kezia Dugdale and Corbyn. Remember, she backed Owen Smith in the Labour leadership contest. Who knows how the election might have gone differently, if she'd towed the party (ie Corbyn) line, but labour badly shot themselves in the foot in Scotland. Much as the main Tory campaign was woeful, Labour in Scotland was just as bad. In the wake of the election result, she's now done a U-turn of her own after a recent statement appeared to give support to Corbyn.

[peejaye]

The "smart money" could be on Ruth Davidson to become the next Tory leader. Personally I'd like to see Boris Johnson become leader as to bury them for the foreseeable future!

[Stavros]

You may well be correct about the Tory revival in Scotland preventing Corbyn from becoming Prime Minister. However, Ruth Davidson is one of the few to come out of this election with her reputation enhanced. Her recent statements, in response to the Tory/DUP coalition, that her commitment to LGBT rights comes before her party have only reinforced that. For the first time ever, we may be seeing an honourable Tory politician.

As a footnote, Labours cause in Scotland was not helped by the constant bickering between Kezia Dugdale and Corbyn. Remember, she backed Owen Smith in the Labour leadership contest. Who knows how the election might have gone differently, if she'd towed the party (ie Corbyn) line, but labour badly shot themselves in the foot in Scotland. Much as the main Tory campaign was woeful, Labour in Scotland was just as bad. In the wake of the election result, she's now done a U-turn of her own after a recent statement appeared to give support to Corbyn.

Yet again, as your post indicates, the election was won or lost in Scotland, and I wonder if the mini-revival of the Labour vote had more to do with hostility to the SNP than the 'Corbyn effect'? I am not surprised however because Ruth Davidson appears to have all the best attributes of a party leader, albeit in Scotland rather than the UK and I don't know but suspect she has the collegiate approach which brings her colleagues together in discussion about policy and strategy, rather than the tight-knit circle of advisers that has been the form with May, Cameron and before them, Blair. It is ironic that the same protest against complacent government that was part of the Tories failure in England was part of the loss of seats for the SNP in Scotland, but also underlines how important Scotland is for the rest of the UK, but whether or not we are 'Better Together' in the long run I do not know. It certainly highlights the perils of Referendums.

And is it not also an interesting position for the UK to be in: apart from Jeremy Corbyn and whoever is leading UKIP at the moment all the political parties are led by women -In the UK, Wales, Scotland (and three times over -Scottish Labour, Scottish Tories, the SNP), Northern Ireland and also the Greens, although Caroline Lucas is now a co-leader. Weren't we told the world would be a better place if more women were in charge?