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  1. #71
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Are the pollsters asking anyone in Northern Ireland or Scotland? It must be that the data is all from England. It's the only explanation for why Ladbrokes is making Leave 1-4
    I can't ever rember odds and polls being this much out of line with each other.



  2. #72
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    As far as I know the major polling organisations convene panels whom they believe are a fair representation of the electorate in terms of age, location, social class and occupation. Some also use telephone polls but apparently cold callers for various scams have eaten into this mode of polling while some claim the only people on the phone during the day are the retired and the unemployed and that Conservative voters tend to put the phone down rather than answer questions, while panels may include opinionated people or activists with an agenda. The organisations however believe their methods are fair, and explain the 2015 General Election failure due to poor sampling.
    There is an overview of polling methods here-
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35350361

    And as a matter of interest I link an article on the situation in Northern Ireland where the Unionists mostly favour Leave while the Republicans/Nationalists favour Remain, which is odd, because if the UK were to leave a United Ireland could be closer to reality than it is at the moment, or it could be that Sinn Fein and other Republicans are too busy counting the money they get for their 'local communities' in EU grants to waste time worrying about a united Ireland....or maybe they are worried border controls will return...who knows?
    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/op...-34475000.html



  3. #73
    Senior Member Junior Poster
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    We will know after tomorrow



  4. #74
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    I am probably going to make a fool of myself, but I predict Remain will win the vote tomorrow by a margin of approx. 7%. I also expect the voter turnout to reach and probably exceed 80% which would make it the largest turnout for a vote in a nationwide election since 1950.
    Voter turnout in Scotland before the 2014 referendum on independence was the highest at 84.59% since the General Election of 1951, and on that basis I expect the UK to match that. Similar traits are the beliefs on both side that they have edged each other prior to the vote but with the vote for change losing out to the status quo. If it all goes wrong I guess I will have to find somewhere else to live.
    For those interested, this link indicates voter turnout in elections since 1945.

    http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm

    And a reminder of the Scottish poll in 2014-
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotti...ferendum,_2014



  5. #75
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    You got your turnout, 83.7%
    Exit data showing Remain victory @ 93% certainty. And your point spread of 7 looks spot-on
    We should have actual numbers by midnight New York time



  6. #76
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Ugh. surprise Leave strength in Newcastle results. Sterling taking a major league dump vs yen and dollar
    gonna be a long night



  7. #77
    Professional Poster The Piper's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?



    Sense at last.



  8. #78
    filghy2 Silver Poster
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    All we need is a Trump victory in November and the triumph of the ignorant and easily manipulated will be complete.


    2 out of 2 members liked this post.

  9. #79
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    A few comments on the result:

    1) I was wrong, because I thought that the risk factor was strong enough to support the Remain vote, but the margin of victory of 4% is weak, and I did expect the turn-out (72%) to be closer to 80%.

    2) The results confirm the haemorrhage of the Labour vote in 2015 is part of a continuing trend. This is a major crisis for the Labour Party, not least because its leader failed to make any impact on the debate, and because Corbyn personally has been opposed to the EU all his political life and only supports/supported the Social Chapter of the Single Market Act. The left is in disarray and I see no short or medium term revival for it in the UK, and I do wonder if Corbyn can survive as leader of the party.

    3) Scotland has voted to Remain, and I expect the Scottish National Party to use this fact to consider its 'next step'- either to begin the process for a new referendum on Scottish independence, or to 'wait and see' for the next two years to see how the negotiations on an Exit proceed. Either way, the UK is facing the most serious challenge to its structural integrity since Irish independence, and I don't see how on present evidence the UK can hold together in its present form.

    4) The EU Referendum has been a major disaster for David Cameron, who this morning has announced that he will resign earlier than expected as leader of his party, and that the party must choose a new leader -and thus, a new Prime Minister, by October this year (he had already made it known he would not lead the party into the 2020 General Election).

    5) The result could present the British government with a dilemma as this result weakens the status of Gibraltar as part of the UK, with only 823 people voting to leave the EU (19,322 voted Remain). The irony of course is that now the only way Gibraltar can remain in the EU is to become part of Spain, however, I expect them to choose being 'British' over becoming part of Spain, and the economic prospects are yet to be determined. A weak pound could make Gibraltar a happy destination for the Spaniards, but weaken the jobs market.

    6) The vote is a major victory for two groups: on the one side there is Vladimir Putin and the European fascist movement, the vote being hailed by Marine Le Pen as a 'victory for freedom'. The real question now, probably a longer term one is whether or not the EU can survive in its present form, and I would not be surprised if it changes significantly over the next 10 years, and this plays into the agenda of the second group who see this as part of a reversal of globalization and the beginning of the end of trading blocs and mega-trade deals, as they want a world economy dominated by private companies and entrepreneurs rather than states even though most of the world's capital and resources are owned by states, and most of them dictatorships.

    7) The likely scenario is that -market reaction aside- change will take place slowly so that the full impact of an exit from the EU may not be felt for as much as 5 to 10 years, but as the Bank of England will be reviewing its contingency plans I would not be surprised if interest rates rise in the next 7-10 days, a sign of the changes to come.

    I don't know what else to say, it is obviously easier to predict the future than it is to make it happen.


    Last edited by Stavros; 06-24-2016 at 10:01 AM.

  10. #80
    Eurotrash! Platinum Poster Jericho's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Most cringe-worthy moment...Nigels 'Independence Day" speech.
    Yeah Nige, you hadn't practiced that!



    I hate being bipolar...It's fucking ace!

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