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12-14-2020 #581
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- Apr 2010
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- 3,211
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
Why do you think it will stop? Brexit is not a destination - it can only be the start of a journey toward some other destination. The Brexit delusion is like a person unhappy with their life who imagines all of their problems will be solved if they just quit their job and leave their house and family.
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12-14-2020 #582
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12-14-2020 #583
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
also, i'm just stating my opinion. don't get fucking terse, as i say what I fucking wish. get over that reality.
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12-14-2020 #584
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- Jul 2008
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- 13,580
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
I am disappointed with your post. Far from being in 'Limbo' since the Referendum in 2016, the UK and the EU have been engaged in an intense negotiation process. It was always going to be a process in two phases, because that it is the legal basis of Article 50: phase one, negotiate terms of withdrawal, phase two, negotiate a long-term terms of trade agreement.
If you recall the lies that were told by Leave campaigners in 2016, leaving the EU would be easy, because on leaving the UK the four fundamental freedoms of the Single Market -the free movement of people, capital, goods and services- would be modified but not substantially changed. Only during the first phase of negotiations it became clear that such freedoms would indeed be changed precisely because the UK had left -the EU was not going to allow the UK all the advantages of full EU membership without the costs and legal responsibilities, while for its part, Theresa May was fighting a losing battle with her own Party on what should be conceded and what should not.
Two things stand out -first, the fact that because the 2016 Referendum was just a stunt its promoters never expected to win, they had no idea what Brexit meant, either the Article 50 process, or its consequences, which thus meant complete and stunning ignorance of the postion Northern Ireland was in with regard to the Customs Union. Second, there was a blithe indifference to facts shaped by English arrogance -for example, the Germans will want a quick deal to protect the hundreds of thousands of cars they sell to the UK every year. When I put this argument to a German friend, he all but collapsed in a heap of laughter pointing out Germany sold more than 20 million vehicles to China in one year. He then added, 'You voted to leave, so fuck off!'
We have now reached a point where the current trade agreement the EU is offering the UK retains tariff free access to the Single Market, while Boris Johnson says No Deal will be 'Wonderful', indifferent to the huge tariffs that must be imposed on the UK by the WTO in such circumstances. In both the short term, and the long term, the UK will be worse off because it will have detached itself from the largest single market in the world which is also its nearest neighbour. It is rare for Governments to make decisions of such scope on the same basis as flipping a coin in the hope that when it lands, it will be either heads or tails. But then it is, or used to be rare for our Liberal Democracies to elect as its leaders men and women with no substantial expertise in policy making, but a heavy commitment to an image of themselves on TV, as if that was all that matters, and no respect whatsoever for the people without whom there would be no democracy at all. But as is now being suggested with regard to the supporters of Trump and the man himself, do they want to live in an open democracy?
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12-14-2020 #585
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
Disappointed that I don't share your exact view? pardon me for being an individual!!
May fucked the process up, and BoJo came in and corrected it.
BoJo's exit deal wasn't that different to May's. But he managed to pass it, and we're now - hopefully - reaching the end of this mess. May also called an election but lost seats and had to get the DUP to bolster her up. BoJo didn't. With more decisive leadership, then Brexit would have been done a lot easier. BoJo's only mishap in office is the pandemic and not mismanaging getting out of the EU.
Economics isn't an exact science. For all we know there could be some war which fucks up all of Europe's economies in a few decades, who knows?
Sometimes in life, there aren't always perfect solutions. Brexit happened, so we have to deal with it. We voted out, and we spent a few years fucking up the exiting process, but now we're in sight of the end-goal. We just have to handle this less than desired solution. That's life, imho.
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12-14-2020 #586
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- Jul 2008
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- 13,580
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
You made an error of fact, it is not a matter of opinion -there was no 'limbo' -the UK and EU have been negotiating for 4 years
We are not reaching the end of 'this mess' -Brexit does not begin until January 2021. You might be right with regard to the future -the UK will adapt to changing circumstances, and just as it took years for membership of the EEC/EU to influence the way we live, so it may be years before we know what the full impact of leaving will be. That said, if we leave without a trade deal, then tariffs will be imposed under WTO rules, and the potential for conflict in UK waters with regard to fishing will increase in intensity, I think you understand that. Just as I think you understand how disruptive uncertainty is for businesses that sign contracts and plan for the next 5-10 years. The difference is, I think, that I see few positive outcomes from Brexit, but you do. In fact, I can't see any positive outcomes, but time will tell, and I am not sure I have that time left in which to find out.
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12-14-2020 #587
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
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12-14-2020 #588
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- Jul 2008
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- 13,580
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
Tom Kibasi in The Guardian this morning summarizes the current situation well-
"The eventual UK-EU deal will be perhaps the first trade agreement in history to envisage more friction rather than less, less economic cooperation and regulatory alignment rather than more. Both sides will be worse off because of it, though the UK is three times as exposed and will be the biggest loser. It suits Johnson to define success as having any deal rather than no deal – a threat that was a political hoax all along. And it suits the Labour party, which has come to believe that voting for Johnson’s deal is in its electoral interest. Titillated by the drama, British political commentators have played their part too, focusing on the fact of a deal rather than the quality of it. As has always been the case with Brexit, there was never a betrayal of Britain in Brussels; that only happens at Westminster."
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ement-friction
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12-14-2020 #589
- Join Date
- Jul 2008
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- 13,580
Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?
Limbo is a condition of stasis, there has been no stasis in this process. It has been grinding on, and on, because the reality of the negotiations smacked the Conservatives in the face, and they have been stunned. At the very least recongize you have used the wrong language to describe the process, I am happy to debate your opinions freely and not 'police' them.
1 out of 1 members liked this post.
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12-14-2020 #590
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