For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[peejaye]

I used to have a hang on this politics thing, now I haven't got clue.
Is Johnson going to bring back a deal, is he going to break the law, are the courts going to reopen parliament? What the fuck is going on!

Well apparently we're leaving Jez? On Halloween? No matter what?
Hope my grammar's ok mate, you know what we great unwashed are like

[rodinuk]

Supreme Court 11 Boris Johnson 0
Unanimous, prorogation null and void.

[filghy2]

So what happens now? I can hardly wait for the next episode in the decline and fall of the once-great empire.

In the past the PM would have at least felt the need to resign after something like this - maybe even gone off to the library with a revolver to atone for bringing HM into disrepute. Not much chance of that from Boris I guess.

One question this raises is whether the UK would be better off with a written constitution. Currently too much seems to depend on the assumption that a PM will do the right thing and follow conventions.

[Jericho]

Well apparently we're leaving Jez? On Halloween? No matter what?
Hope my grammar's ok mate, you know what we great unwashed are like

Tell me that, 1/11.
I might believe it then...And despair.

[Stavros]

So what happens now? I can hardly wait for the next episode in the decline and fall of the once-great empire.

In the past the PM would have at least felt the need to resign after something like this - maybe even gone off to the library with a revolver to atone for bringing HM into disrepute. Not much chance of that from Boris I guess.

One question this raises is whether the UK would be better off with a written constitution. Currently too much seems to depend on the assumption that a PM will do the right thing and follow conventions.

1) Boris Johnson has said he wants the UK to leave the EU on the 31st October with a deal, or mutually agreed 'terms of withdrawal' required by the conditions of negotiation laid out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Because the current Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected by Parliament three times, either Johnson offers an amended version to the EU, or he asks the EU to extend the Article 50 process again. He must do this in time for the EU to consider the new proposals at the Summit Meeting arranged for 17th October, but by 19th October at the latest, and not only must all of the 27 Member State agree to it, so must the EU Parliament, and the Parliament of the UK. Crucially, the terms of the EU Withdrawal (No 2) Act 2019, state that if the Prime Minister fails to produce a new offer to the EU, he must write a letter seeking an extension to avoid leaving without a deal. He has said in the Commons he will not do this, in effect, stating his intention to defy the law.
If Johnson fails to provide a new offer that meets the conditions above, the EU can reject the appeal for an extension, so that in effect, the EU will have expelled the UK from the EU, which it can also do if the UK Government refuses to appoint a new Commissioner to take up his or her position on 1st November.
But, if Johnson fails to abide by UK law by writing to the EU seeking an extension, he may be arrested and charged with contempt:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9120501.html

2) Boris Johnson has not resigned because he has no dignity, no morals, no values and no respect for the Rule of Law or the procedures of the Houses of Parliament. He has screwed up but won't 'carry the can' and neither will the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who declared in the Commons 'we got it wrong' but carried on anyway, and said he respected the Supreme Court decision, then proceeded to trash it. We don't even know what his legal advice was to Johnson and if Johnson ignored it, or what it was that led Johnson to make a mess of the business of government. Johnson has lost every vote in the Commons, he has demolished any hope of a majority in Parliament by expelling more than 20 of his own MPs, and has been humiliated by the Supreme Court. He now thinks he is the second coming of the worst and most corrupt traitor to call himself President of the USA, and decided attack is the best form of defence.
His days are numbered.

3) A written constitution would be heaven on earth for lawyers. Just to write one and then get agreement with it could take ten years. We have better things to do with our time, but if Brexit is a Revolution, who knows what might happen?

[filghy2]

Well you did have your Glorious Revolution in 1688 when the monarch refused to accept the primacy of parliament, so maybe it's time for another one. Isn't BJ acting just like James II or Charles I? If the executive refuses to accept that it's actions should be constrained by either parliament or the courts is that any different to the divine right of kings?

In any case, it looks like you are heading for an almighty constitutional crisis, with highly uncertain consequences. I am not so sure that BJ's days are numbered. I understand the Tories are ahead of Labour in the polls, BJ is clearly going to run on a populist "people vs elites" platform and he'll get a lot of help from the Murdoch press. I'm not sure that Labour's fence-sitting position is helping it either - they might be making a fatal miscalculation that the Remainers have nowhere else to go. I know Corbyn did better than expected last time, but that was against a very poor campaigner.

Brexit really has become a fetish for its supporters - something that has to be achieved regardless of the consequences. They seem to have entered an Orwellian world in which parliamentary democracy and the rule of law must be sacrificed in the name of the peoples' will - even though the form of Brexit was not specified in the referendum and few Leave voters are likely to have thought they were voting for a no-deal Brexit at the time. For instance, our resident Brexit fan has never been able to explain what the alternative is to EU membership or how it's going to make the country better off - his umpteen posts on the subject all amount to "We won. We're leaving. Up yours."

[Stavros]

I am not so sure that BJ's days are numbered. I understand the Tories are ahead of Labour in the polls, BJ is clearly going to run on a populist "people vs elites" platform and he'll get a lot of help from the Murdoch press. I'm not sure that Labour's fence-sitting position is helping it either - they might be making a fatal miscalculation that the Remainers have nowhere else to go. I know Corbyn did better than expected last time, but that was against a very poor campaigner.

It is possible Boris Johnson could do better than expected, but there are two factors that could see him out of office:
1) A lot depends on what happens between now and the 31st October, crucially with regard to 'the deal'. Johnson has said he wants a deal, but appears to have made no real effort to offer the EU something substantially different from what exists in the Terms of Withdrawal rejected by Parliament, suggesting it is a smokescreen to enable him to leave the EU without a deal, in effect, rendering the Article 50 process void. But, were he to agree something at the last minute, he runs the risk that his own Parliament will reject it, for whatever reason and thus get the UK out of the EU but discover WTO rules are not as congenial as he thinks, and that if not 'chaos', enough problems emerge to discourage the voters from supporting him.
Any deal he signs which leaves the UK half in half out of the EU (eg, Northern Ireland) will be opposed by the Brexit Party which has said it will campaign against him and MPs in 'leave' constituencies.
2) If the Brexit Party runs against Johnson in his constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can reach an agreement for one of them to stand down, in a three way fight Johnson, whose majority was cut in half in the 2017 election, could become the first Prime Minister since Arthur Balfour in 1906 to lose his seat at a General Election. It is doable, even without the Brexit Party, but it does need an agreement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

[Jericho]

2) If the Brexit Party runs against Johnson in his constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and if Labour and the Liberal Democrats can reach an agreement for one of them to stand down, in a three way fight Johnson, whose majority was cut in half in the 2017 election, could become the first Prime Minister since Arthur Balfour in 1906 to lose his seat at a General Election. It is doable, even without the Brexit Party, but it does need an agreement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

I can't see any Labour alliance happening whilst Swinson is head of the libdems.

[Stavros]

I can't see any Labour alliance happening whilst Swinson is head of the libdems.

On an alliance, you are right. But an arrangement for a single constituency? It can be done.

[Jericho]

On an alliance, you are right. But an arrangement for a single constituency? It can be done.

Any single constituency but that one.
Considering how small Johnson's majority is (and previous momentum activity), could you imagine the msn shitstorm if Labour didn't field a candidate there?

The way I read it, the only way that that could ever happen would be as part of deal to back Corbyn in a Unity Government. And the way it's looking, the only way Swinson would go for that, is if her own mps threaten to rebel against her (new influx aside, not against the realms of possibility).