For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[Jericho]

When he finds out I used to work for the BBC it will just get worse, though if I told him what my job title was (like something out of W1), .

The Generals moustache warmer?

[Stavros]

The Generals moustache warmer?

Not so rational, and anyway I worked there for less than a year the pay was so bad.

[Stavros]

An update on Brexit:

The House of Lords is coming to the end of its reading of the EU (Withdrawal) Bill, which is expected to return to the House of Common next month for its Third and final reading, the assumption being that the House will complete the passage of the Bill before the Summer recess. The Lords have amended the Bill, but while their amendments cannot change the Bill, it does mean the Commons must debate them, the Customs Union being the hot topic of the day.

However, as the BBC's John Pienaar has pointed out:

Search for the government's detailed blueprint for Brexit, a future trade deal and, more urgently, the customs union, and it becomes clear there isn't one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43925282

It is not clear if the next EU Summit in May will shed any light on this aspect of the talks, and while some are saying that without mentioning 'Customs Union' by name an arrangement could be made with the EU that is 'a customs union' in all but name begs the question if the UK will both get it, and be free to enter into trade deals with countries outside the EU. The Government insists the UK is leaving the Customs Union, though it cannot explain how this affects the border in Northern Ireland, so we are still going round and round in circles, and ultimately, it is for the EU to decide.

Meanwhile, we are told the President of the USA will visit the UK after the NATO summit in July, which means he may meet the Queen at her summer residence in Scotland (Balmoral) (if she is still alive) and possibly Downing Street in London. Protests are planned, but may not have the desired effect.

More pertinent, there is a claim that Theresa May is desperate to negotiate a trade deal with the USA when the UK leaves the EU, yet there is no meat in this sandwich that should attract investors. We are still not sure if the USA will be shutting the door to foreign trade through tariff barriers, or open its economy to UK investors in the way that Mrs Thatcher created the 'Open Britain' that has enabled foreign companies (and, indeed, foreign governments) to purchase large swathes of our economy -the USA does not normally give foreigners the same opportunity and there is no sign it will in future. Moreover, the value of trade with the USA will not be as attractive to investors as trade in Asia, which should take precedence over the USA if the UK does indeed leave the EU with a free hand to negotiate -always assuming that the UK outside the EU is an appealing prospect to trading partners whom, I suspect, want more from us than we get from them.

And of course, this all rests on the President still being in office in July, and Theresa May still being Prime Minister too, given that on the Customs Union she is watching her back and if Amber Rudd is forced to resign over the lies she has told about Windrush and Home Office targets, Theresa May would lose an important ally in Cabinet and be even weaker than she is now.

[peejaye]

An update on speculation over Brexit, take it all with a "pinch of salt" especially its source!

[Stavros]

The resignation of Home Secretary Amber Rudd weakens Theresa May's authority in Cabinet, and comes at a time when David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union is reported to be so fed up with May's EU adviser he is also close to resigning. On top of that, Rudd has had to resign because of a long-established policy on immigration that was started by none other than May herself when she was Home Secretary.

The Militant Tendency -Boris Johnson, Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom must decide in the next few weeks if now is the time to move against May, waiting for the outcome of the local elections in the UK next Thursday (every council in London is up for grabs), or wait for the Commons Third Reading on the EU Withdrawal Bill with specific reference to the Customs Union, or move against her in September in advance of the Party Conference at the start of October. What I don't know is how close the Militants are to the Democratic Unionist Party who may be the key to May's survival.

Windrush is an example of a policy problem the government did not expect to even be exposed in public, let alone take on a life of its own and threaten to hi-jack an agenda dominated by Brexit. It is even conceivable it could bring the government down.

The sooner the better, and one hopes, before Friday the 13th of July, so we can spared a visit from the pompous windbag from the White House who thinks Nine Elms is a 'lousy location' for the US Embassy, as if anyone here cared.

[peejaye]

He's coming, get over it. I'll watch out for you with your little placard demanding he "go home".
As for Brexit, get Nigel around the table & let's get it over & done with to stop your fucking whining! Armageddon hasn't happened as you clowns predicted. It must be so frustrating

[peejaye]

Doctor Liam Fox a militant
You really are in a class of your own

[Ts RedVeX]

Brexit?

[filghy2]

Brexit?

Where have you been Redvex? It's not the same with only the Two Amigos.

[Stavros]

The House of Lords has defeated the government again-

Peers voted by 335 votes to 244 to ensure parliament – rather than the government – decides the next steps if the prime minister’s exit deal is rejected in the autumn.

Unless the defeat is overturned in the Commons, it increases the chances of softening the deal and sending the government back to the negotiating table if the agreement is rejected.

As is the case with Amendments from the Lords, it now requires the House of Commons to debate it, though a vote should go the same way as most votes so far given that the Labour Party leadership is as committed to leaving the EU as the Tories -unless a growing number of MPs on both sides of the House now see the opportunity to delay leaving the EU owing to the governments inability to make any coherent statement on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland with regard to 'the' or 'a' Customs Union with the EU which is only one of a number of unresolved issues.

That confusion exists across the House was further illustrated by the bizarre remarks of Green Party MP (and co-leader of the party) Caroline Lucas. Thus Viscount Hailsham defended the amendment on the basis that it would ensure

“that the future of our country is determined by parliament and not by ministers”.

Whereas Caroline Lucas went further to argue the decision should in fact be taken out of Parliament altogether-she said the amendment

raised the prospects of a fresh referendum on the exit deal. “MPs should respond by ensuring the public are also able to express their view on the final Brexit deal, which will affect generations for generations to come,”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8329761.html

So there you are: so far no exit deal has been agreed because negotiations with the EU are still in process; nobody knows how to resolve the problem in Northern Ireland; the Commons will have to decide if it will vote on the exit deal that has not yet been agreed (presumably in October or November this year); there may be a referendum on the exit deal, there may not be a referendum on the exit deal.

Which is rather like saying we still don't know if the UK will in fact leave the EU, after all, the date of exit on the 29th of March 2019 is a date that marks the transition out of the EU which begins on the 30th of March 2019 and will last -so far - for another year during which the UK will abide by the rules and decisions of the EU, its Single Market and Customs Union...
...someone once wrote an critique of Trotsky's 'Transitional programme' in the context of the Bolshevik Revolution, calling the article 'Transition to the transition'.

Add in the prospect of the UK failing to agree an exit deal with the EU and I guess we could have a 'Transition to the Crash'.