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  1. #21
    Platinum Poster martin48's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    The Brexit crowd are playing on what’s wrong with the EU and the fear of immigration but they have no plans on what to do if we do leave. Boris Johnson (the UK’s answer in deep thinking Trump with a few Latin phrases thrown in) has absolutely no idea. Cameron and all the big commercial and banking interests want us to stay. Well, they are not in favour at present – some papers from Central America got published. So the scare is we vote out for all the wrong reasons. Cameron resigns (before he is pushed and goes back to supporting himself from off-shore funds) and Johnson gets to lead. The Labour Party is too busy fighting itself with a leader who cannot only fail to find his tax returns but has no stand on Europe. Scotland declares UDI. Rest of Europe goes into meltdown. Putin increases his dominance. Meanwhile back in the US, Trump tries to expel Muslins – resulting in the biggest recruiting drive for ISIS, demands the Mexicans build a bloody great wall (then who will do your laundry?)

    Enjoy the future


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  2. #22
    Platinum Poster martin48's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    No reason to think that the betting odds are an indication of the outcome. I would put serious money on leaving that way I can may make up some of the big losses on my shares if we do vote to float off to the blue yonder.




    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    If it's "too close to call" why are the odds for Leave still so long?
    Ladbrokes isn't budging from their price and seem perfectly content taking on all the Leave wagers. They must not put too much credence in the polling data


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  3. #23
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    If it's "too close to call" why are the odds for Leave still so long?
    Ladbrokes isn't budging from their price and seem perfectly content taking on all the Leave wagers. They must not put too much credence in the polling data
    On the one hand you make a fair point because the bookies are not usually very wrong, but on the other hand if they noted the narrowing of the opinion polls and changed their odds accordingly, this in itself would give the Leave campaign a degree of hope and publicity. Although I think the public will vote in favour of Remain, there are still a worrying number of Don't Know voters, so it all depends on how the government handles events in case a random factor sways opinion.

    The campaigns, such as they are, are on both sides the worst managed political campaigns I can recall on such a major issue. Last night, BBC-2's Newsnight programme presented the first of a series of discussions based around a theme, last night's being 'Sovereignty'. The programme was made up of poor thematic presentations which did not define sovereignty for a modern state, wasted time with a visit to the 'Principality of Sealand' in the North Sea (pop. approx 26), added 'contextual' music and film for a snippet about France and de Gaulle in the 1960s, and at one point had a reporter walking a British Bulldog on the Embankment near Parliament, for no reason I can think of. In the studio discussion, Lord Mandelson of Hartlepool and Foy made some important points on the benefits of the UK being in the EU but made them as a rebuttal to Tory Chris Grayling, delivered with Mandelson's typical condescending sneer that for me cancelled out the core of his argument.



  4. #24
    Platinum Poster martin48's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Just one point, to avoid doubt, bookie's odds depend solely on the money placed. Especially true in a two horse race.


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  5. #25
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    In their weekly presentation of the major issues last night's BBC-2 Newsnight programme looked at trade, and was better than last week's programme on sovereignty. Advocates of an Exit from the EU argued that in an age of globalization UK companies should be free to trade across the world, not least because in their view the EU is a 'stagnant' low-growth market and there are better opportunities outside it. A problem with trade deals between states is that they not only take years to negotiate, they often do not result in a deal at all. The Remain argue that as we already have trade deals within the EU and a single market that is still being developed, it does not make sense to leave the EU only for companies to then re-negotiate what they already have.

    There is another argument here, and one that has been exposed by the Panama Papers, and by the crisis in Brazil over the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. Just as the Panama Papers barely skim the surface of money laundering, tax avoidance, tax evasion and other financial instruments (some of which are legal in the UK), what the crisis in Brazil exposes is the extent of corruption in an economy that is currently not doing well. Indeed, of the Parliamentarians in Brasilia who voted to impeach the President because of allegations of corruption related to the state oil company, Petrobras, many are themselves fighting investigations into their behaviour over bribery, embezzlement and other corruption allegations -here is a stunning profile of the problem:
    Of 65 members on the impeachment commission, 37 face charges of corruption or other serious crimes, according to data prepared for the Los Angeles Times by the local organization Transparencia Brasil.

    Of the 513 members of the lower house in Congress, 303 face charges or are being investigated for serious crimes. In the Senate, the same goes for 49 of 81 members.
    http://www.vox.com/2016/4/18/1145022...ment-statistic
    Elsewhere in the BRICS who were leading the 'emerging economies' ten years ago, few believe Russia is 'open for business' in terms of free trade owing to the interference of the state in business; China is in recession, while it is still not possible to do business in India without handing cash to a 'Babu' -there is probably more grease on the palms of Indian politicians than there is in a mutton curry.

    At least in the EU there are regulations and bodies that monitor them. This doesn't make the EU free of corruption, and there is a lack of transparency in a wide range of areas, but the idea that there is a world of free trade waiting to boost the economy of the UK that is otherwise being held back by the EU seems romantic to me, and willfully ignorant of the perils of trading in corrupt states. But what was also shown in last night's programme was that the members of the public invited on to their panel mostly thought that in terms of trade, an Exit from the EU was a gamble the UK should go for. A case of 'be careful what you wish for', and while it was argued that the potential economic decline following an Exit would not be catastrophic, and that decline might only last for ten years while the UK adjusts for the longer term success, for a certain age group -my own- the prospect of spending the last best ten years of my life in poverty is not something I wish for. To take a risk, or not to take a risk? The irony is, that in a way this Referendum is a vote about fear -the fear that by leaving the EU we might lose something we already have, or the fear that we will lose more or what we used to have if we remain.



  6. #26
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Does Obama sound a bit condescending by saying he knows what's good for the British people much better than you know yourself? Are you surprised how a Yank president who's steered his own nation away from decades old foreign alliances visits your soil to advise you to do the opposite?
    The whole scene is surreal. The crazy thing is that he might just help sway Leave sentiment with his perceived arrogance.
    On another note, I wonder what they're serving at lunch with the Queen.



  7. #27
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Is Obama condescending? No. He offered his views on independence for Scotland during that campaign in 2014, and has offered them on what is, after all, an unusual political event of great long term significance for both the UK and the EU -and thus by extension world trade, at a time when the USA is negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. I would have been surprised if Obama was not asked his opinion, and in doing so he joins a list of foreign leaders who have commented on it, not just from the EU. As to whether it will make a difference, I doubt it, even though Obama according to some polls is more popular in the UK than he is in the USA -I think in general the British have a positive view of him as a man and as a President. Michelle may even get higher ratings than him.

    This is set against the predictable hysteria of the Exit campaign, whether it is tired and emotional UKIP leader Nigel Farage claiming Obama is the most 'anti-British' President since the Revolution, a man whose first act as President was to remove the bust of Winston Churchill from the Oval Office and whose father of course was an anti-British Kenyan radical, etc etc; or Boris Johnson, who renounced his US citizenship to enter UK politics (Johnson was born in Manhattan). He has ranted in the way only Boris can rant, which is what he does most of the time with semi-coherent bluster.

    Johnson and others have also claimed the USA would never accept the terms of EU membership that the UK has, with no regard for the history of the USA which began as 13 colonies in rebellion against the Crown, and developed into a union of 50 states each with their own rights to make laws separate from the others states but who agreed to concede their sovereignty to Congress and the Supreme Court in Washington DC. and engage in free trade with the free movement of labour, goods, services and capital. 'Ever closer union', that scourge of anti-EU campaigners, turned out rather well for the USA, notwithstanding the Civil War and the independence movements in Hawaii, probably Texas and, ever the romantics, California.

    As for the lunch, Our Gracious, and Most Noble Majesty does not eat rice, pasta or potatoes. She likes soup, then fish -Dover Sole- with green vegetables, and Scottish beef from her Balmoral estate. She also likes chocolate, does not drink much in the way of wine, but is known to like Dubonnet or Gin in the evening. What the Obama's like I am not sure, though I think I read somewhere that Obama if he is going to eat a tasty burger likes Five Guys -not sure if he drinks it with Sprite.

    I think that 960 years after the Battle of Hastings, we can take some advice from anyone without getting too upset about it.


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  8. #28
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    When referencing new trade deals Obama said Britain goes to the "back of the queue" in the event of an EU exit. The Leave folks will have a field day with the vindictive tone of that comment.
    On the other hand the President's charm and utter magnitude of intelligence have confounded his opponents for years. Both qualities were on full display at the joint press conference. He came clean on removing the Churchill bust from his inner office and I loved the story of his aide almost fainting at the sight of Her Majesty. I thought he and the PM came off really well at the end when they spoke of the passing of Prince.
    Thx for the menu update. We don't get that type of intel on the US news.



  9. #29
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    There was a suggestion on the news this evening that Obama had been coached by Cameron's team, the giveaway being the use of the word queue where an American would normally use the word line. Interestingly, in the panel of undecided voters the Newsnight programme has assembled, three were swayed by Obama's argument.
    Boris Johnson's response to that was to argue that the UK has not signed a trade deal with the US for the 43 years it has been in the EU and there does seem to be a parallel argument here, as UK firms can trade in the US and vice versa, but not on everything -he said the US will not allow imports of British beef, but why would the US want British beef anyway? Trade deals have become packages that states negotiate which contain a broad range of products and services with reciprocal arrangements, special dispensations and so on, that one-on-one contracts do not contain.
    Whether or not we need TTIP and other trade deals I am not sure, as in the past the US would grant 'most favoured nation' status to ease the access for trade between states. The issue now would be whether or not firms inside a trade deal would have a competitive advantage over those going it alone, as Obama implies-if the US thus were to favour firms operating within a trade deal package, individual firms outside the deal would be at a disadvantage, but they would not be failing to get contracts in a free market, and the Exit campaign see the exit from the EU as the beginning of a retreat from globalisation and a return to more market oriented trade on the basis of competition alone.
    It seems to me that while the Exit campaign has supporters who also want these organised blocs to be replaced by states and firms going it alone, they are still in a minority unless the UK votes to leave the EU and triggers a re-structuring of the world economy consequent on the the dissolution of the EU as currently formed. With Trump in the White House erecting tariff barriers and trying to repatriate production by US based firms to the US, the prospects for upheaval and uncertainty from this one referendum result are either overblown, or something to be afraid of.


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  10. #30
    Hung Angel Platinum Poster trish's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?



    "...I no longer believe that people's secrets are defined and communicable, or their feelings full-blown and easy to recognize."_Alice Munro, Chaddeleys and Flemings.

    "...the order in creation which you see is that which you have put there, like a string in a maze, so that you shall not lose your way". _Judge Holden, Cormac McCarthy's, BLOOD MERIDIAN.

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