For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[flabbybody]

Where's the fucking Bank of England?
Are they waiting for Sterling to break 1.20

[Stavros]

Where's the fucking Bank of England?
Are they waiting for Sterling to break 1.20

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney is being seen here as the cool voice of reason while all around him politicians are fighting like rats in a sack. I think there is a short-to-medium term strategy -probably the only one the Bank can provide in the circumstances- which offers commercial banks the right to lend, while also offering up to £250 bn as 'piggy bank' the key point being that they believe they can live with a lower valued pound if it offsets sudden and sharp declines in other sectors of the economy. The usual point is that it will increase the cost of imports but boost exports. The high-value possibly over-valued commercial property sector is taking the flak because it requires long-term planning but there has been a view held long before the Referendum campaign began that property in the UK is over-valued anyway and is due for a 're-evaluation'.

The problem is that for all the talk by Leave that the UK has the 'fifth largest economy in the world', we also have the lowest productivity in the G7 countries, a debt the Chancellor has now said will take longer to pay off, a construction sector lacking in investor confidence at the same time people are complaining of shortages of housing, and the longer term problem that we don't know which investors are put off by the uncertainty over the UK's membership of the EU, those who will withdraw if Brexit happens, and those who want to be part of the 'new Britain' if and when it does. The crucial point of the Bank's policy is to contain the spread of doubt for as long as possible, but that means politicians taking up the slack to give the UK a better sense of where we are headed.

On that basis, while it may look like a sinking ship, Mark Carney may in fact be steering the ship past the rocks we can see on the coastline, but before us is the open sea...

[holzz]

seems likely there will be a recession. probably not very deep, but still could mean job losses.

and also, if it fucks our economy up, then what's the point of leaving????

[Stavros]

seems likely there will be a recession. probably not very deep, but still could mean job losses.

and also, if it fucks our economy up, then what's the point of leaving????

No pain...no gain. Andrea will there to meet you in the sunlit uplands of the world's best country when that great day comes.

[flabbybody]

Andrea was a Leave person. That doesn't mean I automatically hate her. Lotsa reasonable people got caught up in the insanity.
I simply want to root for the most qualified lady for new PM.
So who is it Stavros, Theresa or Andrea?

[Stavros]

Andrea was a Leave person. That doesn't mean I automatically hate her. Lotsa reasonable people got caught up in the insanity.
I simply want to root for the most qualified lady for new PM.
So who is it Stavros, Theresa or Andrea?

I am not a Tory but I would choose Theresa May because of her seniority in government -she was also an elected Tory councillor in the London Borough of Merton from 1986-1994 before being elected to Parliament in 1997, and was in a couple of Shadow positions before becoming Home Secretary in the Coalition government in 2010, but that has been her only job in government and it is said she doesn't know much about economics or foreign affairs. For me the point is that even though she voted to Remain her seniority means we would not need a general election now and as I said in a post at the beginning of the week that would calm the markets -this may now be a relative term- and offer some clear guidance on the way Article 50 is going to be handled, but note that at the moment as I understand it, Cameron will not leave office until the end of September. But that leaves May two uninterrupted months to wrap up the Home Office (nothing happens in August anyway unless it is a crisis) and get on top of the Brexit brief.

Leadsom has little experience of government and it is alleged she has embellished her CV to make it appear she was in senior positions in the City of London when she was not, and is also a recent convert to Christianity and may or may not have been in direct contact with Almighty God, a subject on which she is somewhat coy.
The problem is that there is as wide a gulf between the Conservative Party in Parliament and the country as there is in the case of Labour, and just as Corbyn is closer to the rank and file members of Labour, Leadsom both looks and sounds like those awful Tory women in the Shires who think the Telegraph crossword puzzle is a tougher challenge than the Times, who organise garden parties, make cakes and knit sweaters and do the flowers for Church on Sunday. She abstained on the same-sex marriage vote and critically, is a Brexiteer who the members 'may' think is less likely to renege on Article 50 than May.

The rational view is that the 150,000 Tory voters will choose experience over enthusiasm, but May's record in the Home Office on immigration has not been spectacular, and I don't know how far Brexit will be a deal breaker. On balance I think May will win, but having been wrong on the EU vote don't knock me if I get it wrong. If Leadsom does win, I dread to think of the consequences for this country, and they are already bad enough.

[peejaye]

seems likely there will be a recession. probably not very deep, but still could mean job losses.

and also, if it fucks our economy up, then what's the point of leaving????

Where were the "voices of concern" when the Redcar Steel works closed, all the pits, shipyards & the majority of our heavy industry resulting in millions of people losing their jobs. Don't make me laugh!
Don't forget; the government will soon have an extra £161m to spend every week so don't lose to much sleep over it, I shan't.

[flabbybody]

Andrea out. Somewhat clear sailing for new PM May.
Sterling crawls above 1.30, stocks rally.
End of world put on hold. Maybe we'll start calling her Mother Theresa.
Stay tuned

[Stavros]

Theresa May will become the 76th Prime Minister on Wednesday 13th July 2016. Earlier today she said:

"Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it," adding that there would be "no attempt to rejoin [the EU] by the back door".

She wants to put workers on the Boards of companies, curb executive pay, and tackle poverty -indeed someone on the lunchtime news noted her speech could have been made by ex-Labour leader Ed Miliband.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36760953

The markets may show some sign of relief for a while, but I suspect Theresa May has yet to prove to the wider Conservative Party that she is as committed to the UK's exit from the EU as she says she is. On this issue, the devil will be in the details.

But one is relieved to see the back of the horrendous Andrea Leadsom, one hopes she will also lose her job in government and join Michael Gove on the backbenches.

[peejaye]

Curbing executive pay, tackling poverty? DO NOT hold your breath!
Where have we heard all this bollox before? Cameron.....and executive pay as gone through the roof, poverty is out of control with 25% of children in this country living in or bordering on poverty! The wealthy will no doubt dispute this figure?
More austerity looming, especially for the North and public money been thrown at consultants acting for private companies, etc & millions more spent on public enquiries about shit no ones concerned about!
Basically.....the same old shit as before!