For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[flabbybody]

Article 50 is the playbook for leaving EU but it doesn't say what conditions have to be met to complete the exit. It gives a two year deadline for EU and the leaving party to negotiate new agreements. What happens if there's no deal after two years? No one knows.

The clock doesn't start until Brussels is officially notified by the government of Great Britain that it is invoking Article 50. When will that happen? No one knows.

Can the new PM choose to ignore the referendum and not trigger Article 50.
No one knows.

hope I've answered your question.

[trish]

In part. It's the "No one knows" part that I'm still unsure about Thanks.

[Stavros]

To respond to posts above, the simple fact is that no EU member state has invoked Article 50 before so in fact nobody knows how it works. Prior to the Lisbon Treaty of 2007 there was no formal mechanism for withdrawal, which had happened twice. Algeria was part of France when the Community was created in the 1950s but left the Common Market when it became independent in 1962. Greenland as part of Denmark actually voted against joining the EU in 1973 but was too small to affect the overall vote, after independence in 1979 an argument over fishing rights strained relations and after a referendum in 1985 Greenland left the EU.

In the UK, the legal position is that we became members of the European Economic Community through the European Communities Act of 1972 and until and unless that law is repealed, we remain in the EU. At the moment the only party that wants to overturn the referendum result is the Liberal Democrat Party, the party that had been in Coalition with the Tories between 2010-2015 but lost heavily in last year's General Election. However, there is still a means whereby the UK could remain in the EU. The government has already created a team of civil servants from various government departments to 'prepare the groundwork' for an EU exit, but the leadership contender for the Tory Party, Theresa May has said she will, if she becomes leader and therefore Prime Minister, create a 'Department for Brexit' to do the spade work.

The assumption is therefore that the UK government will seek to negotiate terms for an exit before invoking Article 50 rather than invoke Article 50 and then negotiate the terms, and while some EU member states have implied a 'sooner rather than later' action, none of them can force the UK to invoke Article 50. The fundamental issue will be the status of the UK's access to the Single Market and whether or not it can negotiate a unique deal on the free movement of people to reduce it or even to opt out of it. Other issues also exist, such as the overall terms of trade, tariffs, the status of EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens in the EU, but the assumption is that as Parliament is supreme, any deal must be put to the House. What this does is leave open the possibility that if Parliament does not think the UK has a good deal, it will not approve of it and not invoke Article 50 and remain in the EU. Hardliners on the Leave side already believe they are being set up for a 'great betrayal' while others seem resigned to the UK leaving on the basis that the EU will not concede anything to the UK because it would encourage others to do so, and because some are so offended by the referendum results they want to see the back of the UK anyway.

The only good thing in this is that Theresa May looks like she will be the Prime Minister, through one cannot underestimate the ability of the Tories in their present condition to choose an idiot like Michael Gove. The point is that because Mrs May has been a senior figure in the government for some years there will be no call for a new General Election, certainly not from Labour as in their present state the result would be fatal. Thus, if she becomes Prime Minister, both parties can spend the next four years dealing with their internal problems, while presenting an appearance of stability to please the markets, sort of. Unfortunately, it does look like our domestic politics will be obsessed with Europe for the next two years.

Theresa May has also signalled that she will not make the repeal of the Human Rights Act a priority, and that she has different views on economic policy from George Osborne, but it is still early days and every day seems to fling some new hot potato onto the plate.

[trish]

Thanks Stavros, for the very concise and yet seemingly thorough reply. Well done.

[flabbybody]

Not exactly clear what took Boris down but won't argue with the result.
Theresa May seems like a rational, experienced politician. Even though she's from the Remain camp she's since indicated she won't be part of a "great betrayal"
As you say her emergence as Tory front runner has definitely had a calming effect on global markets.

[Stavros]

Last night on the BBC the EU's Trade Commissioner stated that no negotiations on trade could begin until Article 50 has been invoked and the UK has left the Union. This sets up a dilemma for both the EU and the UK -for the EU either to not want to offer the UK a special deal which other members may then demand for themselves; or to do so because the UK is 'too big to leave'; but it makes it harder for the UK to find a way to use a vote in Parliament to prevent Article 50 from being invoked. Buyer's regret may mean the shop will not offer a refund on any basis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36678222

Meanwhile, in House of Cards, episode 666...
Those of you who think House of Cards is entertainment (I was never a fan) may want to read the account of the Cuckoo Nest Plot which implies that last February George Osborne, wanting to take over from Cameron when he was due to resign some time in 2017, persuaded Michael Gove to persuade a reluctant Boris Johnson to stab Cameron in the back by becoming the voice of the Leave campaign which he, Johnson would lose, taking his career with it to Osborne's benefit. This suggests that a referendum we did not need, has ended up demolishing the career of the main threat to George Osborne, but has also ended Osborne's dream of being Prime Minister (though he does get to swan around the world as Foreign Secretary in a May government) while taking the UK out of the EU, if it indeed that happens because it wasn't supposed to be like this. Whether or not they needed to go so far to 'stop Boris' suggests they didn't care either way and that the party is indeed Cuckoo.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...uckoo-nest-pl/

But here is the intriguing cross-over between British politics and the US Presidential election. The unthinkable may not be President Trump, but Trump not getting the nomination at all. Cleveland may well become famous again, but for whom will that bell in the Old Stone Church toll in July?

[buttslinger]

Kevin Spacey tells a funny story about how he was in a park in London on a fine day......when, suddenly, he sees a thief grab a Lady's purse and run away. So he gets up to chase the guy (in true movie star tradition) ...goes ten feet...... twists his ankle in a little rut and falls in agony to the ground.
Nobody even knew FDR was a cripple, no reporter ever squealed about JFK's side women.
Now I'm not saying we should put the Queen in charge of England, or feed the US Constitution into a super computer and let it run things, but I am saying that people fuck up everything, and if people knew all the real shit that goes down in the Halls of Justice, we would have to enact Marshall Law.
The USA is not greater than England, we have more money.
If I had money I would make the Jackson Family look normal.

[Stavros]

Kevin Spacey tells a funny story about how he was in a park in London on a fine day......when, suddenly, he sees a thief grab a Lady's purse and run away. So he gets up to chase the guy (in true movie star tradition) ...goes ten feet...... twists his ankle in a little rut and falls in agony to the ground.

No woman or sunshine involved- Kevin Spacey took his dog for a walk at Harmsworth Park in South London at 4.30 am and claimed ..well who knows, and really, does it matter?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/.../film.filmnews

[buttslinger]

..well who knows, and really, does it matter?

Exactly.
What matters is that people see the Mexican in front of them at the 7-11 as more important than the Pacific Trade Agreement.
And that Obama taking my gun away is more important than a living minimum wage.
Your posts are perfect Stavros, and I respect that.
But I am pretty sure the lion's share of dudes that roll through here to see tranny cock don't read your posts.
Without name-calling and fighting, the politics and religion section is a yawnfest.
The people who voted for Brexit are the same caliber of people who vote for Trump.
Short on insight, Wide on views.
Government has become totally political, there are no more facts.
I told my brother the joke about the Teacher who was asked which side of the Scopes trial he was on....Divine Creation....or Evolution?
The teacher shrugged and said "I can teach it either way"
My brother is a teacher and got really mad at me and my joke.
For every one teacher there are five "F" students.
Bring back the smoke filled backrooms.
What the people know hurts them.
Bring back Queen Elizabeth I.
Let's make the English Empire great again.
OK, Stav, thanks for the correction, we now return you to your regularly scheduled program.
Hey, who do I have to blow to get a thumbs up around here?

[broncofan]

Hey, who do I have to blow to get a thumbs up around here?

You gotta contribute a little bit man. Think about the subject and write the best most relevant thing you can think of. I'm not sure what your post had to do with brexit. If there's immigration into Britain, it's probably not via Mexico. No offense