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  1. #111
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Stavros; I asked for facts, not speculation or your own personal views but thanks anyway.

    -At this stage, Peejaye, most of the facts you want are still speculations, but you could consider the speculations on the markets with regard to the pound and the value of companies, it at least gives you a sense of how both markets in the UK and world-wide are reacting, because for example, the vote on the EU by impacting on Sterling, has now had an impact on the Yen the Japanese were not expecting, just one example of the reality of globalization and how a crisis that began in the UK could spread through Europe and the rest of the world.

    You may have little sympathy for the banking sector, so the report that Investment banks have reacted immediately to Britain’s referendum result, with some of the City’s largest institutions approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate (Ireland or Germany seem to be favoured destinations) may not surprise you, but investment banks do invest, and not just in UK property and their assets are part of the UK's total capital assets and are a source of tax revenue for the government. Given the inherent problems in the UK economy of low productivity and a persistent trade deficit, it is hardly surprising that investors around the world do not see an exit from the EU at this stage as a positive move, but hey, when you are 64 maybe they will have changed their mind about the UK.

    The quote above it from this article-
    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/26/finan...f-britain.html

    The Financial Times wrote an interesting piece on sterling when it fell in February, many of the arguments still hold, just as its review of the sectors of the economy -small businesses, farmers- reveals who the winners and losers were thought to be in February this year.
    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/caf3e77e-d...#axzz4CmGSjBlq



  2. #112
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Day 6 of BREXIT. We survived.... the world did not end.
    On Monday I bought shares of Barclays and Vodafone
    I'm back to my normal routine of debauchery. God save the Queen



  3. #113
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by broncofan View Post
    One thing I found interesting about this process is the demand for politicians to resign out of honor. An American politician could be a corpse and would still be grasping the reins of power until there was a formal impeachment process.
    Jeremy Corbyn the exception of course.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...r-party-leader



  4. #114
    Silver Poster hippifried's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    I'm not a Brit, just to be clear...

    Seems to me though, that all the speculative BS, from the most elated hurrahs to the deepest doom and gloom, is just a lot of rehash of the same old economic theologies. Why the economic focus? Isn't this really more about social issues? Too much foreign influence etc...? Culture clash & culture shock? Yada yada them v us? England never was part of the eurozone anyway, was it? So why would anything economic be happening regardless of brexit or because of it?

    As an aside:
    Will everyone have to show a passport to 'bark (em & de) the "chunnel" now? Visas?
    Can the Welchers, Scotch, or Ulsteranians opt out of brexit? Maybe even join the eurozone on their own?



  5. #115
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Passport thing has to be worked out. I'm guessing Brussels will inflict as much pain as possible and that would include the indignity of requiring traveling Brits to show papers.
    Scots and Northern Ireland are gone. Scotland will vote for a breakaway referendum and apply for EU membership as an independent nation. Northern Ireland will join the EU via unification with The Irish Republic.
    Whales?...unless you're a a Tom Jones fan, who gives a fuck.
    For Americans who confuse the terms England and U.K. it will no long matter. The two will be one and the same.



  6. #116
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    This post is a response to those by Hippifried and Flabbybody above-

    First, on passports -most continental Europeans have identity cards, which means that while someone from France can drive north to Amsterdam without carrying a passport, they will normally have an official ID card to show if they are stopped (as well as a driving licence and so on). Because we do not have ID cards in the UK we tend to travel with a passport, even though in theory I do not need a passport to travel from London to Paris as long as I have some form of identity to prove that I am Stavros rather than claim I am Napoleon Bonaparte. The main difference if the UK leaves the EU will be that at international borders citizens of the UK will not be able to pass through 'EU Passports' so that if flying from London to Paris I will have to line up alongside Americans, Canadians, the Chinese etc to go through passport control. We will also have to print new passports as the ones we have now have 'European Union' on the cover.

    Second, the impact on the UK economy of Brexit will take some years to take effect, because that is how economies work. The underlying weakness of the UK economy means that we are not prepared for Brexit, literally in the sense that neither the existing government nor the Leave campaign ever had a contingency plan or indeed, any plan at all, other than the Bank of England's contingency fund to shore up banks should they come under pressure, and also because the UK economy is fundamentally weak -with London the exception to prove the rule as I have pointed out in posts in other threads.

    Productivity in the UK is at an all time low and is I believe the lowest in the advanced economies of the G7 and has been for many years. 20 years ago our deficit on manufactured trade was running at around 1.5% whereas these days it is around 5% which exacerbates our balance of payments deficit and increases the burden of foreign debt. The instant attacks on the Stock Market last week were the first sign that investors did not have confidence in the UK economy as a result of the Referendum vote, but while markets have stabilized, it is a mistake to read this as if the panic was over, because the FTSE100 is made up of the large multi-national corporations whose assets and operations are global,.
    By contrast, if you look at the performance of the FTSE 250 List which is made up mostly of British companies, the picture is gloomy as stock on this market fell by 13.6% in the first week of trading and has only recovered by 5%. The impact on UK firms has been spelled out thus:

    Banks, house builders and travel stocks have borne the brunt of the pain because they are the most sensitive to the UK economy. Shawbrook, Aldermore, Onesavings Bank and Virgin Money have all lost between 40pc and 50pc of their value. Shares in RBS have fallen around 40pc since the referendum vote and Taylor Wimpey, the UK’s biggest house builder, is off nearly 40pc. Foxtons and easyJet have been the first companies to issue profit warnings in the wake of Brexit.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...e-ftse-100-to/

    We know that the first reaction of British firms has been to cut investment forecasts, and to predict that in addition to weaker profits, hiring will slow down, wages will not increase, and job losses are inevitable. These may be signs of a recession rather than economic collapse, so the language of panic may well have been overdone for political purposes, but it would have been strange to think that the UK economy on leaving the EU would suddenly burst into a frenzy of investment and productivity when we knew in practical terms the reality of leaving will not begin for a minimum of two years when the formal break begins. And if you accept that contracts signed for say 10 years will be honoured, the full impact will take 10 years and on present evidence, even with Scotland remaining in the UK the overall picture looks bleak. Bear in mind also, that when Mrs Thatcher began the demolition of Britain's manufacturing sector (we lost 25% of industrial production capacity under her leadership) and sent the UK into recession, we had North Sea oil and gas revenue at its peak to fund the worst hit -in effect, billions of ££ was spent on unemployment benefit throughout the 1980s. We do not have revenues at that level anymore, indeed thousands of workers in Aberdeen have been laid off as the oil and gas industry in the UK begins to decline.

    The third point, mostly in relation to Hippifried's post, is that this is a very big deal indeed, and is the most traumatic event in British politics in my lifetime, and that includes Suez in 1956, and the election of Mrs Thatcher in 1979. As I said in an earlier post, a year ago David Cameron won a parliamentary majority for the Conservative Party, their first since 1993, and his party was on course to rule without challenge for five years. Now Cameron is about to go, both his party and the main opposition Labour party are in open civil war over their leadership, nobody has a plan for Brexit, nobody has a clue what the country will even look like in two years time, the economy is an express train without brakes heading toward a brick wall, the UK has plunged the rest of the EU into the same shadow of economic uncertainty and by taking itself out will be taking out of the EU the values and expertise in law and diplomacy the UK brought to it while weakening the UK's reputation internationally and, for example, casting doubt on the right of the UK to sit on the Security Council of the UN.

    The point about my Texit thread is that you start out with a stupid idea, but through a permissive attitude to political debate, end up losing what you thought you could not lose in a million years, in one year.

    We got here because when Cameron's Tory party was in coalition with the Liberal Democrats between 2010-2015 it came under pressure from UKIP which won more representatives to the European Parliament than the Conservatives, and when two Tory MPs in the Commons switched parties joining UKIP, he panicked and promised an EU referendum if the party won the 2015 election, and he did so to quieten down the anti-EU faction in his party that has been there since 1972. What Cameron did not expect was to win a majority in the 2015 election, but he did, and with UKIP failing to make any impact, it gave him a strong hand -and he blew it, betting the car, and the house, and indeed, the country on a throw of the dice. Had the man any brains, he would have not held the referendum, but he decided not to renege on his promise convinced that Remain would win comfortably, and as a result we are living in a nightmare that is not going to end soon.

    Today Theresa May has announced she is running for leadership of the party, the same Home Secretary who wants to introduce a law to monitor internet browsing habits and emails, who has presided over the shambles known as the UK Border Agency, and who wants to repeal the Human Rights Act (199-eight) Boris Johnson, who will put his name forward this morning, is a fraud and a liar -he was sacked from The Times for writing stories that were made up because he couldn't be bothered to do proper research- and who challenged Cameron because when they were at Eton Johnson considered Cameron a 'stupid boy' and was incensed when the lad became Prime Minister, not the best foundations on which to lead the country. He has been an MP for barely a year, and his attendance in the House has been occasional, possibly the worst of any of the new MPs who were elected in 2015, and before that he won two terms as Mayor of London, reneging on almost every promise he made.

    The result of the EU referendum vote is, put simply, a catastrophe for the UK.


    Last edited by Stavros; 06-30-2016 at 09:10 AM.

  7. #117
    Senior Member Professional Poster peejaye's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    That's just ALL your opinion again! Stavros; Are you a Politician?....because you certainly sound like one!
    David Cameron, on one of the televised debates, mentioned "The economy" almost 100 times!

    As hippifred said; It's more about the social side of things and people! Remember them? NOT fcuking money and the god damn economy!



  8. #118
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by peejaye View Post
    That's just ALL your opinion again! Stavros; Are you a Politician?....because you certainly sound like one!
    David Cameron, on one of the televised debates, mentioned "The economy" almost 100 times!

    As hippifred said; It's more about the social side of things and people! Remember them? NOT fcuking money and the god damn economy!
    In addition to, or as a substitute for my views you can verify facts about the UK economy by looking them up, so allowing for measurements that may not be precise, you can ask questions about and get reasonably factual answers on productivity, the debt, investor confidence and plans and so forth, and it is utterly critical given that we live in a capitalist society.

    In the meantime Boris Johnson has now pulled out of the leadership contest for the Conservative Party, possibly because of a major falling out with Michael Gove, whose wife let it be known in a 'leaked' email Johnson does not have the endorsement of Rupert Murdoch.
    This leaves Theresa May as the leading candidate, and if she does win, her long established position of seniority in the government means we will not need a General Election, which would also be a relief to the Labour Party as it gives them four years in which to sort themselves out if they can.
    She will be challenged by Liam Fox, who was Defence Secretary in the Coalition governent before being forced to resign in disgrace, which clearly annoyed him so that he now believes he can just waltz back into a position of power as if his dodgy past had never happened. There are times when you cannot be surprised if most people think politicians live on another planet.
    You can read about Fox here-
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics...ave-ended-2011



  9. #119
    Senior Member Professional Poster peejaye's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Taking a break from your constituents again Stavros?
    You are very well informed Stavros although I suspect our views on Politics differ very much!



  10. #120
    Hung Angel Platinum Poster trish's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    As I understand it the vote on BREXIT is a recommendation leave the EU and although it may be politically impossible to refuse it is not legally binding. Here in the US we’re hearing a lot of stories about buyers regret. There are people claiming they only voted to leave as a protest - never dreaming the leaves would win.

    If someone hoping to replace Cameron runs for Prime Minister promising they will not officially apply to leave the EU and if that person wins, it can be read as a mandate by the people reversing BREXIT. Am I right? To me it seems a more reasonable approach than petitioning for another vote to leave or stay, yet serves that function. Is there anyone running for Prime Minister making such a promise or is there anyone likely to?

    (meant to ask this here and not in the TEXIT thread - sorry).


    "...I no longer believe that people's secrets are defined and communicable, or their feelings full-blown and easy to recognize."_Alice Munro, Chaddeleys and Flemings.

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