For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[Stavros]

The latter, people assuming another referendum would overturn the result is just "spin", a lot of this is about austerity. It's no coincidence the poorer areas of the UK voted leave compared to influential areas voting remain. You also have to look where large groups of immigrants have been located, this also had a big effect.

I agree with you that I don't think there will be a second referendum, the real dilemma is in the place where the UK's membership of the EU should have been decided in the first place and where the votes on Article 50 and any coherent 'final deal' could land the sitting government with an impossible position if MPs vote it down. The MPs will say they are not voting against Brexit but the terms of Brexit while Farage, Johnson and Fox cry 'betrayal' as if the supremacy of Parliament to which these people want to 'take back control' was the problem not the solution.

The referendum result shows that the leave vote scored highly in areas with low immigration as well as high immigration, so there is no direct correlation in the result on that score, but I think your point about links to austerity are at the root of the vote as a vote against David Cameron and the Tory and Tory/Liberal Democrat coalition, but it is hard to argue people have lost faith with politicians when Labour and the Tories scored such high votes in the last election, we have yet to see voter apathy on a scale that would undermine the parliamentary system.

I think you under-estimate the problem of borders, not just in Ireland, but with the EU in general. If the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, WTO rules will apply, but even with an agreement I don't see how the UK can avoid paying tariffs on imports as it will be one of the mechanisms the EU has to compensate for the loss of the UK's budget contribution. I assume that when Corbyn says Labour want tariff-free access to the Single Market he thinks the UK can reach an agreement not to impose tariffs which is unrealistic, but there may be options related to specific commodities, such as food, and there could be a phased transition that does not impose tariffs on car parts being assembled across the EU where the UK is part of the supply chain, but that if when the UK leaves the EU the companies decide to re-locate production from the UK to the EU then tariffs would apply to motor vehicles, raising their cost, and probably leading to a decline in sales of German cars in the UK which is already happening without an agreement.

The problem is once the UK leaves the EU, border officials, in theory, should have to check every vehicle and every passenger travelling through to ensure they are not smuggling goods on which they will be liable to pay customs duties. The UK has got so used to soft borders, it has neither the staff nor the technology to manage borders effectively. In reality, as you know from your own experience, we used to stuff our luggage with more tobacco and alcohol than was legally allowed because we knew we would not be stopped passing through the green channel in airports, and if customs officials decide to stop even half of passengers, chaos and delays will be the result. As I have stated before, this must mean more staff, more bureaucracy, and more costs for a process we are still being told will save the UK money.

[Stavros]

Read this quote from some froggy on twitter today:
If i didn't laugh I'd fukkin cry!

The leavers would argue the Cartesian dualism is not between the mind and the body, but between the EU's 'free trade within the EU' and their 'free trade everywhere', which is why their long term ambition is to see the EU collapse. Just as Gilbert Ryle dismissed Cartesian dualism as a 'category mistake' (it is a mistake to describe the Mind as something distinct from the body) so we have a major problem with the concept of free trade which does not exist and even if the apostles had their 'second coming' would not exist as free trade in the literal sense of the word, which is the only meaning it should have. Ryle called the Cartesian problem 'the ghost in the machine'. We could just as easily say free trade is the ghost in the machine of global capitalism.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ryle/

[holzz]

despite Cameron himself, and even evil ex-PMs called Anthony or some such, saying the economy will tank in the immediate months post-Brexit, this hasn't materialised. The Cable FOREX rate has got to pre-referendum levels, and GDP growth has been OK since then. Unemployment is the lowest since the late Heath and Wilson's governments. So hardly a shitty economy.

I think the EU and us will hash out some kind of deal. And maybe, if the economy doesn't tank and we get a good deal, May can keep this confidence deal with the DUP in check. I think she may resign after its done, and if the economy is good and the campaign is well run, the Tories will get back in. Corybnmania may have died down by then.

[filghy2]

despite Cameron himself, and even evil ex-PMs called Anthony or some such, saying the economy will tank in the immediate months post-Brexit, this hasn't materialised. The Cable FOREX rate has got to pre-referendum levels, and GDP growth has been OK since then. Unemployment is the lowest since the late Heath and Wilson's governments. So hardly a shitty economy.

The UK economy has actually slowed a lot over the past year. Growth in the first half of this year was the weakest since 2012. I don't know where you're getting your forex data, but according to the Bank of England, the pound is 13% below its pre-referendum level on a trade-weighted basis.

The full impacts of Brexit will only be felt over a longer period. Brexit hasn't happened yet, and won't happen for some time. The only impacts now are due to expectations and uncertainty about the future.

[Stavros]

despite Cameron himself, and even evil ex-PMs called Anthony or some such, saying the economy will tank in the immediate months post-Brexit, this hasn't materialised. The Cable FOREX rate has got to pre-referendum levels, and GDP growth has been OK since then. Unemployment is the lowest since the late Heath and Wilson's governments. So hardly a shitty economy.
I think the EU and us will hash out some kind of deal. And maybe, if the economy doesn't tank and we get a good deal, May can keep this confidence deal with the DUP in check. I think she may resign after its done, and if the economy is good and the campaign is well run, the Tories will get back in. Corybnmania may have died down by then.

The Financial Times offers a more balanced view:

-Britain’s economy in the first year since the Brexit vote has been a tale of two halves. A strong performance towards the end of 2016 has been followed by weakness this year.

=In the first quarter, the huge services sector and the production industry both barely grew, with output rising only 0.1 per cent. This was a time when activity in the eurozone, Britain’s largest trading partner, accelerated, helping to push Britain from the top of the Group of Seven league table of economic growth rates to the bottom.

The proportion of income saved by households hit a 53-year low in the first quarter, highlighting that consumer spending has been propped up by people saving less and borrowing more to maintain their levels of consumption

After adjusting for inflation, earnings growth has fallen from 1.5 per cent in the three months before the EU referendum to negative in recent months. The latest data show real wages falling at an annual rate of 0.5 per cent. The cause of the decline in living standards is more closely linked to a rise in inflation rather than a fall in average wage growth, but both have played a part. And with social security benefits for non-pensioners frozen, real income growth is also likely to have fallen.

Every indicator of the number of people in the labour market has been positive since the EU referendum. The unemployment and underemployment rates are down, while participation in the labour market, the employment rate and vacancies are all up.
...With labour market quantities so strong, the puzzle is why employees are not able to translate high demand for their skills into increased wages and growth in living standards. The disconnect might suggest there is a hidden weakness in the jobs market, but it is pretty well buried because the data are comprehensive and strong.
(My view is that a large proportion of new jobs are low wage, part-time, zero-hours jobs which do not improve productivity and many earning less than £15,000 a year claim in-work benefits from the government).

The Brexit vote marked a sudden shift in the fortunes of sterling. The value of the pound had been falling against the euro before the referendum, but plunged to more than 10 per cent below its level at the start of 2016 against both the US dollar and the euro by the day after the EU vote. It has not recovered. Against the US dollar, sterling is 11 per cent down on the start of 2016 and 18 per cent down against the euro. In recent months the gap between the world’s two most important currencies diverged as the euro gained against a weakening dollar. Sterling has also gained, but not as much.

https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-...f-99f383b09ff9

[filghy2]

Read this quote from some froggy on twitter today:
If i didn't laugh I'd fukkin cry!

It's also weird that the EU is regarded by the right around the world as a prime example of the evils of big government, yet we have people like peejaye who think that voting to leave was somehow striking a blow against neo-liberalism.

[peejaye]

despite Cameron himself, and even evil ex-PMs called Anthony or some such, saying the economy will tank in the immediate months post-Brexit, this hasn't materialised. The Cable FOREX rate has got to pre-referendum levels, and GDP growth has been OK since then. Unemployment is the lowest since the late Heath and Wilson's governments. So hardly a shitty economy.

I think the EU and us will hash out some kind of deal. And maybe, if the economy doesn't tank and we get a good deal, May can keep this confidence deal with the DUP in check. I think she may resign after its done, and if the economy is good and the campaign is well run, the Tories will get back in. Corybnmania may have died down by then.

Mervyn King, ex Governor of the Bank of England, also spoke positively about the economy recently re. Br-exit. Other experts told us we wouldn't know the full impact of Br-exit until the summer of 2017. Now that time as come & gone & we're still in one piece, these remainers still won't accept it. It's almost like they're wishing the whole world to come crashing down around us just so they can say they were right!

[Jericho]

Sorry, Peejay, Fog in the channel, Europe cut off!

[peejaye]

Sorry, Peejay, Fog in the channel, Europe cut off!

You'll go across the channel just like before Jericho, by boat, train or plane, just don't forget your passport. Fog or no fog?
Don't worry please! You're not going to be charged a small fortune like the "doom-mongers" are suggesting.
I used to travel to Switzerland a lot when I lived in Germany, it was only 75 minutes by train, sometimes Pass control came through the train, sometimes they didn't. If they did, it was a few questions, sometimes a check of my rucksack, then a thankyou. No border control at the station, just straight out onto the street, easy! Same applied for the Swiss going out

[Stavros]

Mervyn King, ex Governor of the Bank of England, also spoke positively about the economy recently re. Br-exit. Other experts told us we wouldn't know the full impact of Br-exit until the summer of 2017. Now that time as come & gone & we're still in one piece, these remainers still won't accept it. It's almost like they're wishing the whole world to come crashing down around us just so they can say they were right!

Peejaye you are right, the UK has not collapsed because of the vote to leave the EU. But the pound has been devalued, economic growth is poor relative to the rest of the EU, productivity remains low, borrowing is increasing, and perhaps the key indicator is the lack of confidence among a wide group of people from consumers to industry. It also means holidays are more expensive, that the income of expats in Spain has declined even with the Euros problems -and that is all before the UK actually leaves.
As for Switzerland, it is part of the Schengen Area which is why there are no passport controls with Germany.