For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[peejaye]

I have nothing to add to my previous post.
I think we live in different worlds my friend?

[Stavros]

I have nothing to add to my previous post.
I think we live in different worlds my friend?

We live in the same world, indeed, the same country, Peejaye -where agreements are honoured for moral as well as legal reasons, and where lies should be exposed for what they are, as they should never be the basis on which to make policies that affect our lives. The House of Commons has had to delay the Article 50 Bill because of the objections to it, and on a raft of post-EU laws the government has nothing to say, for the simple reason that nobody expected us to be in this position, and a year after the referendum it appears preparations are not going well, yet you claim this is what you want?

Just take one policy that needs urgent clarification -Value Added Tax, or VAT was introduced into the UK when we joined in 1973, because we joined, so will the government abolish VAT when the UK leaves the EU? If anything, the desperate search for money will lead to an increase in taxes, indeed I can't see how the UK economy can function without increases in VAT and interest rates and direct taxation, and it is on those bases that I don't feel as confident about the UK outside the EU as some people do.

[filghy2]

More speculation, scaremongering & guess work as usual when on this topic!

As opposed to generalised resentment and wishful thinking, which you seem to think is a sufficient basis for policy? I counted 36 posts from you on this topic, and still no indication of what you want as an alternative to EU membership, how that might be achieved or how it will make you and the rest of the country better off.

I'm always amazed at Stavros' patience and persistence in continuing to debate with people in a calm and gentlemanly fashion, even in cases where experience shows that it is futile.

[peejaye]

Speculation, scaremongering and guess work is exactly what it all is. I'm not a Politician, I don't have to justify to you or anyone else the details of what I want.
I & 52% of the population want out, accept it and get over it!
I haven't responded to Stavros's last comment because I am not discussing speculation.

[Stavros]

Speculation, scaremongering and guess work is exactly what it all is. I'm not a Politician, I don't have to justify to you or anyone else the details of what I want.
I & 52% of the population want out, accept it and get over it!
I haven't responded to Stavros's last comment because I am not discussing speculation.

I think the point about speculating is that it is based on the scenarios of either a hard or soft Brexit, where the UK either leaves the EU in 2019 with no deal, or leaves the EU in stages with a deal over two or more years. What happens is based on the known arrangements, up to a point. For example, a hard Brexit without an agreement means that we do know that the UK in order to carry on trading with the EU and the rest of the world, would do so using World Trade Organization rules and we know what those rules are, but we do not know precisely the tariffs that would be imposed on UK goods entering the single market, where they change depending on the commodities -10% for motor vehicles, up to 40% for agricultural products, for example.

The issue of customs regulations would have to be dealt with because we know that the UK would no longer be part of the single market, and goods could not simply pass though borders unchecked, but we know that the UK does not have either the technology or the staff to establish customs posts in the key case of the Ireland-Northern Ireland border, and neither does Ireland. So yes it is speculation, but based on a very real scenario and one that automatically increases costs on both sides of the border which as I stated before runs counter to the claim that by leaving the EU the UK would be saving money.

And what we do know is that taking a large economy like the UK out of the EU will reduce the amount of money the EU has entering its budget and that budget amendments will have to be made in the EU to compensate for the loss of the UK's revenue. One area of speculation that is causing the greatest concern is with Ireland, owing to the long-established freedom of movement that has existed since 1923 and the close trading relations with the Republic -either the Common Travel Area will have to be scrapped, or re-negotiated = more time, more costs. Put simply, if the UK economy declines, Ireland's economy declines, and the assessments of a 'hard Brexit' all point to decline, at least in the short to medium term, but that could last 10-15 years, on top of the 10 years of stagnation we have had since 2008.

The speculations are not based on fantasy they are based on available data applied to realistic scenarios, thus:

The Centre for Economic Performance estimates that a “No Deal WTO rules only” scenario would reduce the UK’s trade with the EU by 40% over ten years. This reduced trade would mean a fall in income per head of 2.6% per year (net of the savings from no membership fees). There would also be longer-term negative effects from lower investment and slower productivity growth, which are estimated to be another 3.5% of GDP. Adopting a policy of unilateral free trade would mitigate part of these costs. But the savings from unilateral tariff cuts are estimated to be just 0.35% of GDP. The short-term disruption resulting from the sudden imposition of these WTO rules could exacerbate these negative effects.
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/no-deal-the-wto-option/

And that is without asking what happens to the UK's relations with over 30 agencies in the EU, listed here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenci...European_Union

[filghy2]

Speculation, scaremongering and guess work is exactly what it all is. I'm not a Politician, I don't have to justify to you or anyone else the details of what I want.
I & 52% of the population want out, accept it and get over it!
I haven't responded to Stavros's last comment because I am not discussing speculation.

The whole point of a discussion on issues like this is that people justify their position, otherwise how can there be a sensible discussion? If you want the right to express your view then you have to accept that others have the right to question and challenge what you say.

Are you seriously suggesting that because 52% voted against something at one point in time, even though the question did not specify what they were voting for, then there should be no debate on the pros and cons of different options from that point onward?

Your argument about not responding to speculation is just an evasion (ironically, it's a favourite evasion of politicians). If the impacts of different Brexit options are speculative, then that must apply equally to the benefits that (I assume) you expect from it.

[Stavros]

In a way I understand Peejaye's frustration with people like me who take an interest in the details, insofar as we know them, but this is what leaving the EU is going to mean after 45 years. The irony is that those people who voted to Leave the EU voted against something which we know to exist, and voted for a condition outside the EU that is largely speculation, and where the speculations are mostly those of the leavers who know the UK will lose market share when it leaves the EU, yet insist it will be more than compensated for by new trade agreements elsewhere in the world. I doubt any of them could have predicted that the US Department of Commerce would slap a tariff on Bombardier of 219.63%. A rude awakening and pretty scary stuff.

[filghy2]

The irony is that those people who voted to Leave the EU voted against something which we know to exist, and voted for a condition outside the EU that is largely speculation.

In other words, they were comparing the actual imperfect EU to some idealised (but unattainable) non-EU world. It's like a man deciding to leave his wife after more than 40 years of marriage because he imagines that he will now be able to have his choice of all the young and beautiful women.

[peejaye]

The whole point of a discussion on issues like this is that people justify their position, otherwise how can there be a sensible discussion? If you want the right to express your view then you have to accept that others have the right to question and challenge what you say.

Are you seriously suggesting that because 52% voted against something at one point in time, even though the question did not specify what they were voting for, then there should be no debate on the pros and cons of different options from that point onward?

Your argument about not responding to speculation is just an evasion (ironically, it's a favourite evasion of politicians). If the impacts of different Brexit options are speculative, then that must apply equally to the benefits that (I assume) you expect from it.

I've actually just rated your post by mistake!
That's my frustration!
What don't you understand about people voting leave? What would you like to debate or discuss? I am at a loss?
Listen to Nigel Farage, I don't like him but everything he says about that "Tax office" in Brussels I agree with.
Hopefully you will stop bothering me now?
This debate is pointless, there WON'T be any deal, they won't give us anything because they are behaving like wounded bullies!

[Stavros]

I've actually just rated your post by mistake!
That's my frustration!
What don't you understand about people voting leave? What would you like to debate or discuss? I am at a loss?
Listen to Nigel Farage, I don't like him but everything he says about that "Tax office" in Brussels I agree with.
Hopefully you will stop bothering me now?
This debate is pointless, there WON'T be any deal, they won't give us anything because they are behaving like wounded bullies!

What frustrates me Peejaye is the thought that you don't seem to accept that the UK has contributed to the EU budget as a member and in return become part of a single market of 500 million people worth over $200 billion to the UK economy. A few years ago George Osborne and a trade delegation came back from a trip to China with an extra $80 billion worth of contracts, business based on our membership of the EU. Or it could be that that you accept all but don't want it, and prefer to leave the EU knowing the volume and value of trade will decline but without knowing where the new trade will come from. It is like deciding to move out of your house without having a new one to move into. For someone fed up with speculation, and I agree it is frustrating, you seem more keen on it than those of us who wish it wasn't happening and on balance are more pessimistic than optimistic, at least in the short to medium term. As for taxes, I suspect over the next 5-10 years people will have to pay more and won't like it. I am still waiting for both Tory and Labour politicians to tell me if VAT will be abolished. The UK had a sales tax before we joined in 1973 but there is still no clarity on what that arrangement will be or what the rate will be.