For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

[Stavros]

Stavros said it way before the court ruling. The referendum is not legally binding. An Article 50 trigger is strictly a parliamentary function.

Exactly, because unless the act authorising the referendum states that the result will be binding on the government (as was the case in 2011 with the Referendum on proportional representation), the existing law on referendums assumes them to be advisory only. This is the key element in the High Court's decision. To be fair to those who think it is wrong, the link below argues that the Government does have the right to invoke Article 50 without Parliamentary approval but claims this is because the Conservative Party stated in its election Manifesto in 2015-

“We believe in letting the people decide: so we will hold an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU before the end of 2017.”
It should be noted that the election promise was to “let the people decide”. It was not a promise to hold an advisory referendum, with the final decision being left to Parliament.
http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/ref...-binding.shtml

-But this cannot be right, first because manifesto commitments have no force in law; and second it does not recognise what a referendum is in law and uses politics to subvert both the law and the will of Parliament.

[Stavros]

As 2016 draws to a close there are still more questions than answers on the mechanisms which will result in the UK leaving the European Union. I hope the following is a clear and accurate account and timetable of the situation as it is today.
The timetable is accurate as far as I know, but below I have outlined some key issues, some of which may prevent the Govt from invoking Article 50 by the end of May, the status of Scotland being the key obstacle to this.

Timetable

January 2017 Supreme Court judgement on the Appeal against the decision to refer Article 50 to Parliament.
February-March 2017 Article 50 Bill debated in Parliament.
March 15 2017 General Election in the Netherlands -the leader of the Party for Freedom, Geert Wilders is committed to taking the Netherlands out of the EU.
March 2017 By the end of this month the Government of the UK will invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.
April 2017 Negotiations between the UK and the EU begin. The Treaty on European Union allows a two-year period of negotiations to take place before a formal exit takes effect.
April 23 2017 -first round of the General Election in France. Leader of the Front National, Marine le Pen is committed to taking France out of the EU.
May 7 2017 -second round of the Presidential vote will decide who becomes President of France.
August-October 2017 General Election in Germany (date to be confirmed, August the earliest possible, but must be concluded by the end of October).

Issues and Obstacles

-The Prime Minister, Theresa May is committed to invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (Lisbon, 2007).

-The intention of the UK Government to invoke Article 50 without reference to Parliament was based on an interpretation of the Royal Prerogative which allows the Government to amend treaties without reference to Parliament. This has been challenged in the Courts, and in November 2016 the Supreme Court ruled that the Government cannot exercise this power, and that Parliament alone can authorise the invocation of Article 50. The Government has appealed against this decision, and the Supreme Court will issue its judgement on the appeal in January 2017.

-Theresa May has thus proposed a brief Bill to be passed within two weeks in January if the Government is defeated in the Supreme Court. The assumption is that MPs will not vote against the referendum result, and indications that only a few Conservative and Labour rebels, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats will vote against suggest that Parliament will approve the invocation of Article 50.

-However, there is a legal instrument which could see the Supreme Court refer the invocation of Article 50 to the European Union Court of Justice [EUCJ] under Article 267 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union which gives the EUCJ the authority to offer preliminary judgement on the legal decisions made by member states on Treaty matters. However, this is not an obligation on the part of the British government, and would only be seen as a delaying mechanism as it would not change the political decision to leave the EU.

-Further complications arise with regard to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Included in the Scotland Act of 1998 where the 'Sewel Convention' states that
“it is recognised that the parliament of the United Kingdom will not normally legislate with regard to devolved matters without the consent of the Scottish Parliament”
In practice this means the Scottish Parliament passing a formal Legislative Consent Motion but in reality because Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU it may vote on but not pass the required Legislative Consent Motion. This will probably delay the invocation of Article 50.
It has been argued Northern Ireland does not have the protection of the Legislative Consent Motion mechanism, and while it does not exist in Wales it is likely to be included in the Wales Bill that is making its way through Parliament.

-Currently, the EU position is divided between the Council of Ministers in Brussels, and the European Parliament in Strasbourg. In Brussels, the Council of Ministers began consultations with the 27 member states on Friday 15^th December 2016, while in Strasbourg Guy Verhofstadt has been designated the Parliamentary leader on Article 50 negotiations. As a result there is some confusion as to who in the EU has the most power, but it is generally accepted that Article 50 will also have to be subjected to a vote by the European Parliament, with the assumption that the Parliament will vote to acknowledge and confirm the desire of the UK to leave the EU.

-The key issues therefore now revolve around the extent to which votes in the Parliament of the UK and the European Parliament will be based on a general principle alone, or be shaped around a group of propositions that determine the relationship the UK will have with the EU after it leaves, crucially with regard to the UK's access to the Single Market.

-The position of the UK Government is that Article 50 must be invoked first, and negotiations subsequent to that deal with issues such as access to the Single Market etc; others want what they see as crucial issues to be clarified before the vote is sought so that both sides know what they are voting for.

-The opposition want Parliament to include specific provisions in the Article 50 Act, the Government wants a free hand to negotiate and thus only include them in the Great Repeal Bill which it is assumed will follow the final agreement of the EU on the UK's exit from the EU and thus determine the precise arrangements.

-David Davis has said the UK could be 'out of the EU' by the end of 2018, but most experts expect negotiations on the details of the UK's exit to last 10 years.

A clear presentation of the legal arguments can be found here-
https://fullfact.org/law/brexit-supr...urt-arguments/

[Stavros]

As presently constituted, this is the EU-

[Stavros]

As presently constituted, this is the EU- (warning- taken from the Daily Express, hence the loaded comments in the box below the map).

[Stavros]

-Currently, the EU position is divided between the Council of Ministers in Brussels, and the European Parliament in Strasbourg. In Brussels, the Council of Ministers began consultations with the 27 member states on Friday 15^th December 2016, while in Strasbourg Guy Verhofstadt has been designated the Parliamentary leader on Article 50 negotiations. As a result there is some confusion as to who in the EU has the most power, but it is generally accepted that Article 50 will also have to be subjected to a vote by the European Parliament, with the assumption that the Parliament will vote to acknowledge and confirm the desire of the UK to leave the EU.

To clarify, Michael Barnier has been appointed by the European Commission to represent the EU in negotiations with the UK on Brexit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37542204

[flabbybody]

We're finding out today the ambassador to the EU resigned...bit of a shocker. This is the guy Farage called the ultimate insider. So much for soft Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-email-in-full

[Stavros]

I think the problem is that most of the senior civil servants in Whitehall have served in some capacity in the EU, and for the militants, having sat in an office in Brussels or Strasbourg is proof they cannot be trusted to negotiate the exit they want. The problem is that the Government doesn't really have a corps of experienced negotiators that would satisfy the militants, and if they are satisfied with Rogers' exit it is also because of his relationship with the demon, Cameron. In any case, it appears that Theresa May now believes it will not be possible for the UK to negotiate a compromise on the Single Market, a key issue for the militants on both sides.

One should also note, given my previous more general post above, that in France, Marine le Pen has begun to shift the goalposts on her own version of Brexit, known as Frexit (one is tempted to say Frigide sur Frexit). If there is a referendum asking the French if they want to leave the EU it may not include leaving the Euro at the same time, a confusing policy which is aimed at placating those French with savings who fear their value would be depreciated if France left the Euro and revived the Franc. Le Pen is suggesting a dual Franc/Euro system but in doing so has weakened her cause and opened up the kind of divisions in the Front National we have seen in the Conservative Party over 'hard and soft Brexit'. In any case barely 33% of the French polled want France to leave the EU.
For more confusion-
http://www.politico.eu/article/marin...-after-frexit/
https://politicalscrapbook.net/2017/...hing-the-euro/

[flabbybody]

Please update us on Madam PM's Brexit speech this Tuesday
Across the pond we're a little preoccupied with Friday's inauguration.
God save us all

[Stavros]

Theresa May has delivered her speech on the UK's exit from the EU, based around a 12-point plan which highlights these issues:

1. Provide certainty about the process of leaving the EU
2. Control of our own laws
3. Strengthen the Union between the four nations of the United Kingdom
4. Maintain the Common Travel Area with Ireland
5. Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe
6. Rights for EU nationals in Britain and British nationals in the EU
7. Protect workers' rights
8. Free trade with European markets through a free trade agreement
9. New trade agreements with other countries
10. The best place for science and innovation
11. Co-operation in the fight against crime and terrorism
12. A smooth, orderly Brexit

In addition, she confirmed that the Brexit deal will be presented to Parliament for a vote, and when asked after the speech, was confident that MPs and the Lords would not vote against it.

May's primary aim was to present Brexit as a positive step forward for the UK, one that would allow it to retain its links to the EU with regard to trade, investment, security and settlement rights for EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU. She pressed the right buttons on repatriating law-making to Westminster (which it never lost anyway as Parliament could always veto EU laws), reducing EU immigration into the UK, and ending the substantial annual payments to the EU as part of the membership deal. The relief from the constraints on negotiating separate trade deals would thus re-configure the UK as a 'global economy', in spite of the fact that we already are, and have substantial trade arrangements across the world.

The main problem is that the negotiations have not begun and that Mrs May indicated that in reality the 'half-in half-out' arrangement that some have called for, which she says is not on the table, was right there in her speech.
She wants the UK to leave the Single Market, but wants to re-negotiate access to it.
She wants the UK to leave the Customs Union, but also wants the UK to negotiate tariff free deals in the Customs Union on certain (unspecified) aspects of trade.
She wants the UK to retain links in research & development in education but ignores a requirement of most EU R&D projects that they adhere to the free movement of people and other EU rules.
She says the UK will not longer be paying billions of pounds a year into the EU, but also said the UK would make financial contribution to projects agreed with the EU on trade, R&D, security and intelligence and so on.

Mrs May thus presented in advance of the negotiations what the UK would like to get out of the deal, rather than what it insists is non-negotiable, though she did warn that no deal would be preferable to a bad deal, and that it would be 'calamitous' for the EU to punish the UK for leaving by making access to the Single Market difficult or impossible. This clearly sets a challenge for Michel Barnier and his team in the EU, not least because May also wants a swift set of negotiations to ensure most if not all issues are ready to go within the two-year time-frame set for the talks.

She made many references to 'free trade', a reflection of the view of those who see the EU as an obstacle to free trade globally, yet seems committed to inter-state trading negotiations, referring to the potential of the USA as a trading partner. Yet she also knows how difficult and time-consuming it was for Canada and the EU to reach a trade agreement, not to mention TTIP and TPP both of which appear to be dead in the water.

So on the one hand, we have a clearer idea of what the UK government wants, but no idea what the EU will offer, and how the compromise will look when negotiations are concluded. It was, incidentally, a good speech, and shows May is in command of the brief. But putting the UK's case before the EU and the world is only one part of the play, the rest is yet to come.

I guess you could sum up her speech thus: always look on the bright side of life...

The full text of the speech (+ video) can be found here-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...t-speech-full/

[rodinuk]

SCOREBOARD:

Theresa May's Combined Top Team 3 - 8 Supreme Court XI

Devolved Administrations also lost their match after being kicked into touch. There may not be dancing in the streets of Glasgow/Cardiff tonight..