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  1. #41
    Silver Poster fred41's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    Is it a coincidence that the day Trump becomes the de facto nominee I'm hearing from my Brit friends growing increasing panicky about a Leave victory?

    No doubt the scenario of chaotic financial markets and a free falling Pound that would accompany BREXIT are very real. The PM seems to be failing in communicating these risks to the public. Or they simply don't care. Are Brits in some kind of Trump-like "make England great again" trance?

    I tried to reassure my friends. We've been through worse. Besides, where can you run for cover? If Sterling denominated assets tank then US markets will follow in lock step.
    I think Tony Blair kind of said the same thing today:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tony-b...211738120.html

    or more like, It's happening all over - on the right and on the left...both in Europe and the United States.


    Last edited by fred41; 05-06-2016 at 02:35 AM.

  2. #42
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Laphroaig View Post
    Can you spot the deliberate mistake?...
    Mistake for sure but not deliberate. A lot of Americans conflate the terms England and Great Britain.
    And what's with Northern Ireland? They're in the UK but not Great Britain.
    And the Irish Republic is neither of the two.
    All very confusing for us simple Yanks.


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  3. #43
    Senior Member Gold Poster Laphroaig's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    Mistake for sure but not deliberate. A lot of Americans conflate the terms England and Great Britain.
    And what's with Northern Ireland? They're in the UK but not Great Britain.
    And the Irish Republic is neither of the two.
    All very confusing for us simple Yanks.
    It's not just you Yanks that get confused. I was living in England at the time the proposal on whether to hold a Scottish independence referendum was being discussed and one English woman asked me "why do so many Scottish people not want to be part of England." My reply, "you've just answered your own question..."

    For me, the irony in all of this discussion about staying/leaving the EU is that if Scotland had gained independence (which is what I voted for), there would have been no EU referendum in Scotland. Whether we would have been allowed to remain in (or reapply for) the EU would have been an entirely different issue.



  4. #44
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    Mistake for sure but not deliberate. A lot of Americans conflate the terms England and Great Britain.
    And what's with Northern Ireland? They're in the UK but not Great Britain.
    And the Irish Republic is neither of the two.
    All very confusing for us simple Yanks.
    It is the difference between geography and politics that explains the confusion, and just to add to it, Great Britain is the island comprising England, Scotland and Wales, whereas the British Isles comprise the island of Britain, plus 5,000 other islands, including the Isle of Man, the Scilly Isles, the Channel Islands, Lundy Island and all those islands off the coast of Scotland (Orkney, Shetland et al).

    Rather like the difference between the USA and the Americas...Where is America? And who is American?


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  5. #45
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    We need to get out of the EU. However I fear we will do what the Scots did in their referendum last year - vote to stay out of "fear of the unknown" and then instantly regret doing so. I'm certain that if the Scots referendum was rerun now that the majority would vote to leave.

    Where the Scots went wrong IMO is that the leave campaign only focussed on "nothing will change" so as to allay fears of the unknown - keeping the NHS, the BBC, the sterling (and the silence was deafening whenever a pro-independence Scottish MP would avoid answering "what's plan B in case you don't get to keep the pound" by blindly insisting "England will let us keep it, don't you worry about that". Can you imagine the US winning the hearts and minds of its people to rise up against Britian if they said "it'll be exactly the same, honest!". America, just like Slovenia, Slovakia, and all the Balkan/Slavic/USSR states did last century, is base their argument on striding out alone and forging their own identity. The pro-independence cmap for Scotland should have done the same - appelaed to forging a new nation under their own rules TV station, currency and thus not the have the elephant in the roo of "what is England won't share the NHS or the pound?"

    Anyway, back to Brexit. The EU has already been pretty pissy with us despite us being the main military force and 2nd (I think) largest economic power - who's exit would leave the EU gaping like a woman's fanny after Big Jim Slade's had his way for 8 hours so just imagine what they'd be like when (yes, when, unfortuately) the nation chooses to play safe and stay in the EU? They'll be even toughter, even stricter, less willing to entertain us "little Englanders" ("little Islanders to include the other home nations) and will simply berate and shout is down with "No, UK! You had your chance to leave, you chose to stay, so shut the fuck up, do as you're told and keep sending the cheques!"



  6. #46
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by King Dong View Post
    We need to get out of the EU. However I fear we will do what the Scots did in their referendum last year - vote to stay out of "fear of the unknown" and then instantly regret doing so. I'm certain that if the Scots referendum was rerun now that the majority would vote to leave.

    Where the Scots went wrong IMO is that the leave campaign only focussed on "nothing will change" so as to allay fears of the unknown - keeping the NHS, the BBC, the sterling (and the silence was deafening whenever a pro-independence Scottish MP would avoid answering "what's plan B in case you don't get to keep the pound" by blindly insisting "England will let us keep it, don't you worry about that". Can you imagine the US winning the hearts and minds of its people to rise up against Britian if they said "it'll be exactly the same, honest!". America, just like Slovenia, Slovakia, and all the Balkan/Slavic/USSR states did last century, is base their argument on striding out alone and forging their own identity. The pro-independence cmap for Scotland should have done the same - appelaed to forging a new nation under their own rules TV station, currency and thus not the have the elephant in the roo of "what is England won't share the NHS or the pound?"

    Anyway, back to Brexit. The EU has already been pretty pissy with us despite us being the main military force and 2nd (I think) largest economic power - who's exit would leave the EU gaping like a woman's fanny after Big Jim Slade's had his way for 8 hours so just imagine what they'd be like when (yes, when, unfortuately) the nation chooses to play safe and stay in the EU? They'll be even toughter, even stricter, less willing to entertain us "little Englanders" ("little Islanders to include the other home nations) and will simply berate and shout is down with "No, UK! You had your chance to leave, you chose to stay, so shut the fuck up, do as you're told and keep sending the cheques!"
    Surely there was always a contradiction at the heart of Scotland's independence campaign? On the one hand, independence, on the other hand the long term view that Scotland would be better off in the EU. Scotland was in the position in 2014 of feeling confident about its future, it had more political control over its own affairs than at any time since the Union, had retained its own legal and education systems so was not in the position of being, as it were a vassal state of the English or an oppressed colony. And the oil price had not fallen below the level that would have undermined an independent Scotland's fiscal programme (although in the long term the price of a barrel may rise again). On balance, I think the Scots could not see the benefits of 'going it alone' when in reality they were never going to 'go it alone' anyway.
    A similar dilemma presents itself with the Brexit argument -that the UK will leave the EU on Friday, and open negotiations on re-entering the single market on Monday, so why leave at all? I agree that the real dilemma for the UK is the long term enlargement issue and the way in which the EU is administered and governed, but the UK can only prevent Turkey from becoming an EU member if it uses its veto when doing so as an EU member state, as is true of Albania, Serbia or any other candidate state. There may be good reasons for leaving the EU, and good reasons to stay in, how one balances out those hopes and fears is down to personal prejudice, research, fear of change, and so on. I think the vote will be close, but I think the Remain camp will win, because fear is a potent factor, and there is much to be afraid of given the state of the British economy.



  7. #47
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Stavros View Post
    A similar dilemma presents itself with the Brexit argument -that the UK will leave the EU on Friday, and open negotiations on re-entering the single market on Monday, so why leave at all?
    So many reasons why. Chiefly, controlling our own nation and laws; not having to do what we're told, having laws and policies (and levies) imposed on us, nor leading us by the nose down paths we don't want to go. Right now, the European ourt has absolute control over us - in short, we cannot enforce any laws if they do not agree.

    There's a big difference between agreeing trade deals with a body (the EU) and being bound by that body. As it stands we cannot arrange trade deals with the US, China, Australia, for example, and are missing out by being forced into a bloc who's trade deals are "one size fits all" and may suit another nation more than the next. The EU has also failed to set up trade agreements with some natiosn too, damaging our prospect for growth and trade.

    And as un-altruistic as it may seem, it's unjust that a teeny, tiny nation that offers so very little to the EU in terms of wealth, military, jobs, and commerce can hold as much sway as major players on the world stage. Britain once ran the world, her genius and achievements shaped the world, from the industrial revolution to radar to engineering to computing and the world wide web. Her military porwess (now outweighed by supernations) was paramount to the world and is still, even now, a key player and one of just 8 nuclear powers. Her black ops train are the elite and train(ed) all the maor nations secret ops. No way should countries lke Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Finland, oland have anywhere near as much say or sway. Can you imagine the USA having to share parity with Cuba, Bolivia, Peru? Where those countries can impose their will on the US and veto changes or insist on changes?


    But I think the Remain camp will win, because fear is a potent factor, and there is much to be afraid of given the state of the British economy.
    I agree. Sadly.



  8. #48
    Platinum Poster flabbybody's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    No king, I could never imagine the US sharing parity of any kind with our North American neighbors. As a matter of fact the Monroe Doctrine pretty much states that foreign entanglements of nations in our hemisphere will be looked upon with harsh scrutiny by the US.
    This was the first question asked of Obama at his recent joint press conference with Cameron. His response was a bit dodgy to say the least.
    The question itself implies "mind your own business", and "don't advise us to give up sovereignty that your country would never contemplate". I respect that view as well as your admiration for all things British.
    But the argument that you'd have to start from scratch on the Monday following a Friday BREXIT is overwhelmingly pragmatic. It just doesn't seem worth it.



  9. #49
    Silver Poster fred41's Avatar
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Unless you look at our individual states as European Countries...in that event - we've already done it a long time ago.
    I personally don't quite look at it that way though.
    I'm not sure which way I'd vote...I would have to be living there and understand a little more about UK economy.
    If I didn't think it would hurt the economy much though , I'd probably go with emotion the last minute and vote to leave.



  10. #50
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    Default Re: For the Brits: When will BREXIT referendum happen ?

    Quote Originally Posted by flabbybody View Post
    I respect that view as well as your admiration for all things British.
    In posting, I was just listing all we'd achieved but having said that, I'm sick of the way the country has gone for the past 30 years. Apologising for being British, for all our achievements, for colonisation, for the Empire. OKay, colonisation meant some harsh injustices but it also brought great reform, technology and civilisation. No matter the rights or wrongs, it was an amazing achievement and we were the foremost and advanced nation in the world. Even when the US and USSR started to overtake at the turn of the 20th century, we were still punching way, way, way above our weight.

    We shouldn't be hanging our heads in shame, trying to undermine every damn achievement and success we made. There used to to pride n this country - "Buy British" and "British is best" yet now that's seen as racist, xenophobic.....even by other Brits! As much as I have a pathological hatred of American jingoism and shake my head how serious Americans take American, their Americanism, and play the national anthem for the slightest of events I also look on with envy. Because that pride is now lacking over here. Maybe one time it was arrogant - just like the US appears now - but at least it was deserved (just like the US's arrogance is deserved considering all they've done in the past 100 years).

    Pride builds a stronger nation, inclusiveness, togetherness, cameraderie - not the marginalised and fractured societies we have now where political correctness means we don't ask them to act o rconsider themselves British, have councils employ multi-lingual people rather than expect them to speak English, putting up notices in variosu languages because it's apparently racist to expect them to speak English when living in England. WTF?!?!?!?!?

    Pride builds the economy - encourages investment and trade within the home nation as opposed to blithely looking for the best deal regardless where it comes from (we're now suffering in our once world-famous steel industry because every fucker runs to China and it's ludicroulsy cheap steel - steel which experts confirm is not up to the grade that British steel is and can be dangerous. The mind boggles.

    Americans hoist the flag proudly and are louder than usual on 4th July whereas we are embarrased about our flag, think it makes us look neo-Nazi xenophobes and God forbid we celebrate our national day. In fact, we ALL (hoem nations) make a big fuss of Scotland's national day. And Ireland's. And Wales. And Northern Ireland's. We actively encourage Scots, Irish and Welsh to be proud to be Scots, Irish, Welsh but English?? Fuck, no, St George's Day is hardly ever mentioned in the press or elsewhere - it's seen as arrogance and racist, y'see, and - sadly - Brits from other home nations get their backs up when we dare to celebrate ourselves and so the cycle of kowtowing continues. We can't be proud to be English and whilst we are the dominant nation in the UK, everyone else can choose their nationality on their passports and what now but English isn't an option - only British. Fuck that! I'm English and fucking proud. I won't be wiped out and homogenised for political correctness.

    I get it, we're not the force we once were but fuck it - be proud! Flex our chest muscles regardless. Don't skulk away, shoulders stooped, apologising and taking shit off inferior nations. When Latvia or even larger countries like Spain and Italy acheieve what we've done, then they can criticise. The Spanish Empire was nothing compared to ours and it took the French and the Spanish together with the Americans to take down the British who even then didn't realise how serious the US uprising was. France? They roll over whenever anyone invades and both England and Germany took it in turns to kill a weekend or two by rampaging and doing whatever the fuck they want. Even now, they hide behind Germany at the EU, like a kid hanging with the tough kid at school, thinking they're cool and tough by association (which is why it cracked me up when Germany turned on them last year and told them in no uncertain terms Germany does what it wants and France will follow). Italy? As was famously said - the Italian tank has 5 gears - 1 forward and 4 in reverse.

    Putin got it right. He took over a defunct, broken and penniless Russa but he had pride. Instead of accepting Russia's new place in the world - as we keep being told we have to do - he puffed his chest out and roared. He had a rickety, almost derelict air force but still he got trhem airborne and buzzing other nation's airspace. He wasn;t a threat - it was an empty gesture - and he'd have been in trouble had thye been met with force but that wasn't the point. He was flexing his muscles and telling the world that Russia is a force to be reckoned with. And years later he now has a sizeable, working air force that would cause seriosu trouble to anyone but USA and China. Get it? He rebuilds an extinct air force whilst we cut our armed forces and slash budgets to the point of almost uselessness - makign us even more reliant on the EU, NATO and the pet poodle to the USA.


    But the argument that you'd have to start from scratch on the Monday following a Friday BREXIT is overwhelmingly pragmatic. It just doesn't seem worth it.
    ALL trade deals need to start anew. Australia had theirs sorted in 8 months so all this talk of decades is just spin. But I put it to you, if you could go back in time to the American revolution, would you have stood up on the platform and said "look guys, even if we win this thing we're gonna have to set up our own currency, politicla structure, government, laws and trade deals........it just doesn't seem worth it?"

    Of course you wouldn't and of course it's worth it for the right to be self-determinate; to not have laws imposed on you, to not have to bear mass migration and allow complete aliens total access to your benefit system, your housing, your fucking national health service. The NHS is a wodnerful thing - that was unfairly and inaccuratley bashed in US discourse when Obama wanted to launch an American variant. No bigger a fraud was there than when some US politician said Stephen Hawkings would be dead if he was English and had to rely on the NHS - which prompted Stephen Hawkings to call in and explain he is English and that the only reason hes alive is because of the NHS. This magnificent, free healthcare for all entity, is on its kneed mainly due to to the influx of foreigners (legal and illegal). The legal ones can come in and claim from day one without putting a penny into the system to pay for it (like everyone else has to) and the illegal ones can't be stopped from using it because the deportment process is hamstrung by EU law!! Bloody lawmakers who don't live here, don't pay for the NHS, don't have to suffer the shortages as a result, and = most of all - are unelected! Would the US, or anyone in their right mind, tolerate unelected officials?


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