UK General ELection 7 May 2015

[Stavros]

The Prime Minister went to Buckingham Palace on Monday to formally inform Her Most Noble Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II that her Parliament has been dissolved, and that there will be a General Election on Thursday 7th May.

This has been referred to either as the most boring, or the most interesting election of recent years. The boredom seems to relate to the lack of dominant issues, so that this election if it is about anything, is about 'more of the same' under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition, or 'something else, as yet undefined' by the Labour Party.

David Cameron has been accused of having no vision, Ed Miliband of having no charisma, and so far neither of the two main parties has been able to establish a clear lead in the opinion polls, which put them roughly 3% points adrift of each other.

Where this is becomes an interesting election is on the margins, where the Scottish National Party, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), and the Green Party look set to increase their share of the vote. Note, however, that the popular vote does not elect governments in the UK, which is formed from the largest party in the House of Commons, and therefore the number of seats in the House is the decisive factor. The Labour landslide of 1997 was won with a million fewer votes than the Tory victory of 1993.

Predictions are tricky in these situations, because UKIP could take votes from both Labour and the Tories, the Scottish Nationalists appear to be eating into the Labour vote in Scotland while the Green Party is more likeley to take votes from Labour. A wipe-out of the Liberal Democrats is predicted by some, but in all these cases votes do not always mean seats so that my own worthless opinion on the evidence so far is that we will return on May 8th with the same Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition that we have had these past five years.

UKIP may win three or four seats, Labour I expect to lose more in Scotland but retain its vote in Wales. I do not expect the Greens to improve on the one seat they have (in the coastal town of Brighton) and they may lose that.

In so far as there are issues -Labour will bang on about the NHS because it has little else to promote, having long ago given up wealth re-distribution as a pillar of its party vision; the Tories will claim the economy is improving and it would be mad to change course now; the Liberal Democrats will insist they are containing the worst the Tories might otherwise inflict on the population; UKIP want a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union, which they want the UK to leave, and want an end to immigration even if they claim they want a 'managed policy' on this; the Greens want an end to fossil fuels, and a vague commitment to social justice, and the Scottish Nationalists want more -and yet more- for Scotland.

Boring, or interesting? I think interesting, but I won't be losing any sleep over the outcome.

[Laphroaig]

I think it will be more interesting than most elections, because it really does seem to be wide open this time and despite Labour ruling it out, an SNP coalition is a possibility. Talk about the tail wagging the dog...
I still want an option at the bottom of the ballot paper for "none of the above" though.

[broncofan]

I had a co-worker who sent me a link to a PM questions a couple of months ago. I swear I had no idea what the major issues were but it was entertaining. I have since watched parts of Jeremy Paxson's interview with Cameron and Miliband. Still, after watching such a conversation I am only able to get a sense of personal styles..in the same way American Presidential debates probably reveal very little about the issues if you are not already aware of the candidate's positions.

Ed Miliband pretty much suffers from the same malady that American politicians Al Gore and John Kerry had. They seem uncomfortable dealing with people and come across as aloof. This in turn makes it very easy for the press to prey on them.

I remember John Kerry being picked apart during his 2004 campaign for saying things like "Whom amongst us doesn't like Nascar"...the stilted phrasing of which made him seem an unlikely Nascar supporter. Or Al Gore being accused of claiming to have invented the internet and having every facial expression analyzed during his debates with George Bush. By the end of that election he seemed a villain just for being slightly odd.

So Miliband seems to deal with the same thing...can he eat a bacon sandwich, is he a geek, etc. Cameron on the other hand is a bit slicker when it comes to answering questions and seems generally more comfortable. It's partly my fault if I don't know any of the issues, but the press does not make it any easier by focusing so much on personality (I'm not claiming it's any different here).

So maybe you guys can help me out by telling me two or three major domestic issues that Miliband and Cameron have taken different stances on. I've heard Miliband carry on about how he supports ordinary British people and stands for change rather than more of the same...but that didn't help me much.

[broncofan]

In so far as there are issues -Labour will bang on about the NHS because it has little else to promote, having long ago given up wealth re-distribution as a pillar of its party vision;

Miliband seemed to have a little more leeway to use the populist rhetoric than people do in the U.S. Here, if you even acknowledge that a graduated tax system is indirectly re-distributive you are advocating socialism or even Marxism. I recall something about the mansion tax and various other comments about helping out ordinary people (Miliband seemed to identify himself as someone who is financially well off and can afford to be helpful), or was that just rhetoric?

Edit: Seems I had the name wrong above. The interview was with Jeremy Paxman. A bit of an aggressive interviewer eh? Both good and bad to that.

[Laphroaig]

So maybe you guys can help me out by telling me two or three major domestic issues that Miliband and Cameron have taken different stances on. I've heard Miliband carry on about how he supports ordinary British people and stands for change rather than more of the same...but that didn't help me much.

I'm going to be completely honest, having voted Labour all my life (I'll never vote Conservative), I'm finding it increasingly difficult now too separate the policies of the 2 main parties.

Following the independence referendum, Scotland may have a slightly different agenda, but for the rest of the UK, the 2 main issues in this election will be probably be immigration and the economy.

I don't know each party's stance on immigration, the Conservatives keep saying they have cut it but the figures seem to show different.

On the economy, this is a sweeping generalisation, but broadly speaking the Conservatives want to continue the current program of spending cuts in order to reduce the deficit and eventually build up to a budget surplus, while Labour want to increase public spending in order to stimulate and grow the economy to achieve the same effect. It largely boils down to whether you want to continue with the Conservatives "austerity" which is slowly working (albeit much slower and with more pain than they claim) or whether you take a leap of faith and think Labours plans can be "trusted" after the economic collapse under Gordon Brown. (Whether it was his fault is an entirely different debate).

In the end, I'm thoroughly disillusioned with both parties (hence the "none of the above" comment) and am seriously considering voting SNP for the first time.

[Stavros]

In the end, I'm thoroughly disillusioned with both parties (hence the "none of the above" comment) and am seriously considering voting SNP for the first time.

I think that this is a common feeling among many voters -I was surprised when a close friend was enthusiastic about the SNP campaign during the referendum as she doesn't even live there, but she liked the social justice element of their programme, something she feels is lacking in the English parties.

[Stavros]

So maybe you guys can help me out by telling me two or three major domestic issues that Miliband and Cameron have taken different stances on. I've heard Miliband carry on about how he supports ordinary British people and stands for change rather than more of the same...but that didn't help me much.

On the economy, as Laphroaig said, Labour will increase the higher rate of taxation to 50% the Tories will keep it at 40%; Labour has endorsed the Liberal Democrat concept of a 'Mansion tax' on properties valued at over £2 million -which includes the house which Miliband lives (which has two kitchens).

Labour will not hold a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU, the Tories might -it depends on the circumstances.

Labour will reduce tuition fees for University students, the Tories will not. Neither Miliband (PPE [Politics, Philosophy and Economics] at Oxford) nor Cameron (PPE at Oxford) paid tuition fees when they were at university, nor did I. If Miliband had any balls, he would scrap tuition fees altogether. His shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer, whose name IS Ed Balls (yes you guessed it, PPE at Oxford) doesn't have any of the political kind. Neither, you will be relieved to hear does Mrs Balls, also known as Yvette Cooper, Labour's shadow Secretary for Work, Health and Pensions who, I kid you not, studied PPE at Oxford.
The diversity of candidates in this election is such an encouragement to the younger generation.

Cameron now claims to be the 13th cousin of Kim Kardashian, which like 'Two kitchens' Miliband is the sort of detail that frankly is not going to make voters change their minds, but may make some shake their heads.

Meanwhile, another UKIP candidate has resigned -in the last year something like 15 parliamentary candidates have either been sacked, resigned, or defected on a range of issues such as embezzling party funds, complaining about racism and bullying in the party, gaffes etc etc. The latest to resign, Jeremy Zeid had printed in his Facebook page the view that after leaving the White House, Israel should 'do an Eichmann' on Barack Obama, ie, kidnap him and put him on trial in Israel...apparently Obama is responsible for leaking information about Israel's nuclear weapons. Expect more madness from UKIP in the next few weeks.

Links to stories here:
Cameron and Kim
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...ardashian.html

UKIP candidate resigns over Obama comment
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-32134581

[broncofan]

That's very helpful on the economic front by both of you. I understand as we generally have the same split here. Stimulus or austerity. I like the idea of reduced or fully subsidized university bills although we don't accomplish anything like that ourselves. So I guess Labor isn't confident that the public would get behind full subsidy?

How significant are the differences on foreign policy?

Also, do either of you support a referendum on EU membership? I genuinely appreciate the info.

[broncofan]

Cameron now claims to be the 13th cousin of Kim Kardashian, which like 'Two kitchens' Miliband is the sort of detail that frankly is not going to make voters change their minds.

What about whether Mr. Cameron brushes his hair back in a very particular way to avoid revealing a bald spot? I actually think that kind of attention to detail can be very useful.

[Stavros]

That's very helpful on the economic front by both of you. I understand as we generally have the same split here. Stimulus or austerity. I like the idea of reduced or fully subsidized university bills although we don't accomplish anything like that ourselves. So I guess Labor isn't confident that the public would get behind full subsidy?

How significant are the differences on foreign policy?

Also, do either of you support a referendum on EU membership? I genuinely appreciate the info.

Foreign policy in general rarely plays a major role in elections, whereas defence has a higher profile. At the moment there are three main issues:
Defence Expenditure, Trident, EU -

The Tories are committed to maintaining expenditure of 2% of GDP on defence in line with NATO recommendations; Labour might reduce that or argue we can't afford 2% but would spend close to it.

Labour and the Tories both want to keep Trident as the UK's nuclear deterrent, the SNP want it scrapped which is only relevant if there is an SNP-Labour Coalition although the issue could be kicked into the grass as domestic issues take precedence.

Only UKIP want to leave the EU, via a referendum. The problem of reform in the EU, badly needed as it has expanded over the last 10 years, is as difficult as reform in the UN where dominant players resist it. The argument is that if there were a referendum, the campaign itself would damage Britain by raising questions in Europe about its commitment, it would limit long term investment decisions by foreign businesses in Britain pending the outcome, and create anxiety among those EU nationals who live in the UK who would not know what will happen if they have bought property, have children in school here, and so on.

UKIP's argument is that Britain is not going to lose its trade with the rest of Europe just because we are not formal members of it, but we will not have to incorporate EU laws and directives which they say undermine the UK's sovereignty and are also bad for business owing to issue such as health and safety, discrimination and human rights, and of course, the right of EU citizens to work in any EU member country.

A counter argument is that if the UK left the EU the City of London might lose its status as a major financial hub, the evacuation of jobs and property taken by EU nationals, many working for firms who in the UK because of UK membership would increase unemployment and send house prices crashing.

The issues are briefly looked at here:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelecti...eral-election/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...ce-policy.html