Advice on escorts and STD's

[trish]

So roughly, with 63M people living in the UK, out of which about 100k have HIV, the probability of getting it during a single unprotected session of receptive anal intercourse with a random person here is 1/630*0.0138 so 0.0022% (1 in 45k LOL) sounds like u need to be quite lucky to get infected overall. I am just curious how they came up with that 0.0138 figure...

Going further, if I work 7days a week, have on average 3 customers per day and they will all fuck me bareback, I will need 42 years till I am very likely to be have gotten infected... I will have naturally ceased to be by then

Good question. I’m taking the 0.0138 (found in http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/policies/law/risk.html ) to be the probability of acquiring an HIV infection through a single, unprotected, anal receptive “copulation” with an HIV-infected person; i.e. one unprotected anal receptive “exposure”. It tells us nothing about how many people in the UK actually carry the HIV virus. If nobody in the UK were infected, then the probability of acquiring HIV from one unprotected, anal receptive encounter with a person in the UK is (0/63M)(0.0138 ) = 0. If everybody in the UK were infected the probability of transmission (via one unprotected anal receptive encounter) would be (63M/63M)(0.0138 ) = 0.0138 ->1.38%. The point is: to get the number you seem to want (the probability of transmission through one anal receptive encounter with person in the UK, you need to multiply 0.0138 by the number of HIV infected persons in the UK (a number I don't know off-hand) divided by the population which you say is roughly 63M. This will be larger than the 0.0022% you came up with (unless there's only one infected person in the whole UK).

[tarot]

Clever , Trish - love your maths xx

[fireblad]

I do not understand myself or humanity in that we use ignorance as a shield to our conscience by having sex with people we dont know their sexual health history. If we know that someone has an STD we avoid that person sexually even with a condom but if we dont then we use a condom or not. And if the condom comes off during sex the panic that ensues is almost comical. It seems wise to fear STDs before casual sex than to fear after the fact, but then I am not a very wise person at all.

[bulldogtuck]

True, but I'm mainly concerned about HIV as it's pretty much a death sentence right.

It's not a death sentence.

Doctors are projecting HIV poz people to live well into their 70s and 80s now. The meds are so effective these days that HIV poz don't even carry the virus in their blood or semen. That's if they take their meds daily.

That's why it's important to get tested regularly because infected people with high viral loads that don't know their status are the most dangerous to other partners.

[trish]

Continuing with Post #21. According to ( http://www.nat.org.uk/HIV-Facts/Stat...HIV-in-UK.aspx ) 98400 people in the UK were infected with the HIV virus in 2012. Of course the distribution of these infections may not be uniform, but for purposes of argument let’s suppose that the chance that the person you pick up and bonk tonight has HIV is 98400/63M = 0.00156 -> 0.156 %. Now let’s suppose by “bonk” we mean “unprotected anal receptive intercourse.” Then the probability of acquiring HIV through one bonk is (0.00156)(0.0138 ) = 0.0000215 -> 0.00225% . Seems, RedVex, that you got the right answer, but left out the 98400 when you explained your procedure.

So the probability of walking away from one random bonking without acquiring HIV is 1-0.0000215 = 0.9999785. The probability of walking away from two random bonkings without acquiring HIV is (0.9999785)(0.999785) = 0.9999569 . The probability of walking away from N random bonkings without acquiring HIV is (0.9999785) to the Nth power.

Let’s figure, as you do in your post, that someone is bonked by three random people daily. That 7665 bonks per year. (0.9999785) to the 7665 power is 0.848 . So the probability of acquiring HIV by year’s end is 1-0.848 = .152 -> 15.2%. At this rate of bonking, one will have been bonked 76650 times by decade’s end. (0.9999785) to the 76650th power is 0.192. The probability of acquiring HIV by decades end is therefore 1-0.192 = 0.808 -> 80.8%.

We might be able to argue the odds are better than depicted here, by assuming the 78% of those in the UK who know they carry the virus are on PrEPs that significantly lower the amount of virus in their fluids. (See bulldogtuck’s post above).

[bobtrucker1]

Continuing with Post #21. According to ( http://www.nat.org.uk/HIV-Facts/Stat...HIV-in-UK.aspx ) 98400 people in the UK were infected with the HIV virus in 2012. Of course the distribution of these infections may not be uniform, but for purposes of argument let’s suppose that the chance that the person you pick up and bonk tonight has HIV is 98400/63M = 0.00156 -> 0.156 %. Now let’s suppose by “bonk” we mean “unprotected anal receptive intercourse.” Then the probability of acquiring HIV through one bonk is (0.00156)(0.0138 ) = 0.0000215 -> 0.00225% . Seems, RedVex, that you got the right answer, but left out the 98400 when you explained your procedure.

So the probability of walking away from one random bonking without acquiring HIV is 1-0.0000215 = 0.9999785. The probability of walking away from two random bonkings without acquiring HIV is (0.9999785)(0.999785) = 0.9999569 . The probability of walking away from N random bonkings without acquiring HIV is (0.9999785) to the Nth power.

Let’s figure, as you do in your post, that someone is bonked by three random people daily. That 7665 bonks per year. (0.9999785) to the 7665 power is 0.848 . So the probability of acquiring HIV by year’s end is 1-0.848 = .152 -> 15.2%. At this rate of bonking, one will have been bonked 76650 times by decade’s end. (0.9999785) to the 76650th power is 0.192. The probability of acquiring HIV by decades end is therefore 1-0.192 = 0.808 -> 80.8%.

We might be able to argue the odds are better than depicted here, by assuming the 78% of those in the UK who know they carry the virus are on PrEPs that significantly lower the amount of virus in their fluids. (See bulldogtuck’s post above).

Nice maths. So having protected sex once or twice with one partner carrying the disease is extremely minimal? And that's presuming they do have the virus which they may not.

I was never going to practice unsafe sex, but I was still concerned with the chances even with the condom as a factor into its prevention

[tarot]

Bobtrucker , for whatever it's worth , I have felt alot better in myself since giving up anal sex. In the past I never practised unsafe sex and I really enjoyed anal , but something was amiss.I also feel now I'm getting older , and I may not be as attractive as I once was , I'm also being considerate to the escort in question.What's the point in making someone do something , just because you've paid them.So these days , it's all very safe .And I seek escorts that are highly intelligent and very sensual .

[trish]

Nice maths. So having protected sex once or twice with one partner carrying the disease is extremely minimal? And that's presuming they do have the virus which they may not.

I was never going to practice unsafe sex, but I was still concerned with the chances even with the condom as a factor into its prevention

The probability of transmission by bonking once with a HIV-infected person is 0.0138.
The probability of no transmission through a single bonk with an HIV-infected person is 1-0.0138 = 0.9862. The probability of no transmission after two bonks with an HIV-infected person is (0.9862) squared; i.e. 0.9726.

The probability of acquiring HIV by bonking once with a random person in the UK is 0.0000215. (I just noticed this got mistranscribed in my post above to 22.5%...of course it's really 21.5%).
The probability of not acquiring HIV through a single bonk with a random person is 1-0.0000215 = 0.9999785. No HIV after two bonks is (0.9862) squared; i.e. 0.9999569.

So if you made one mistake, chances are you're okay. But for your own sake and the sake of the people with whom you have sex, get checked (and tell the doctor when you thought you may have exposed yourself to make sure the proper time window has elasped).

[trish]

addendum: .0000215 is of course 0.00215%

[bobtrucker1]

addendum: .0000215 is of course 0.00215%

Ah ok, thanks for the info. So Protected anal (both insertive and receptive) therefore has an extremely low chance of transmission then? I have no plan on 'bonking' haha