A Question For Quinn (re: North Korea's Nukes)

[hondarobot]

What's you're thoughts on this DPRK missle launch deal? We haven't really posted back and forth abouth this sort of thing for awhile, just wondering about your thoughts on the whole deal.

[Quinn]

LOL... Some friends and I has a really serious debate about this very complex issue yesterday.

My position: I don't think the Taepodong II malfunctioned at all. Contrary to popular belief, the North has has a very good track record with developing (usually reverse engineering and cannibalizing) and testing new missiles. The fact that this was a multi-stage system, which adds considerably to its complexity, should not be seen as the major issue that the media would lead you to believe -- particularly given the fact that the North successfully tested a multi-stage system 8 years ago.

I'm fairly certain that we took the missile out. The fact that it "malfunctioned" so early in the launch -- before North Korea could get any useful telemetry -- makes this all the more likely. If you look at the research the US has been conducting in theater missile defense, there are a number of possibilities as to how this might have been accomplished.

To answer the next obvious question, the reason Washington isn't saying that this is what happened is because we don't want to push the North into a position where they have to save face. My guess is that this is a concession to Tokyo, which is terrified that Pyongyang will retaliate against US bases in Japan -- something it has threatened to do in the past. Not stating that we took out the Taepodong II also makes it harder for Pyongyang to justify a conventional retaliatory strike against US forces in the region.

Historically speaking, both the Clinton and Bush Administrations have really fucked this up. The key to Pyongyang is Beijing and always has been. Chinese aid is what keeps the North's shattered economy afloat. Unfortunatley, from Beijing's perspective, North Korea's actions serve to undermine US dominance in the region -- which is what they want. Beijing's goal is to indirectly weaken the degree of Washington's influence in the region, thereby allowing China to increase its own influence without coming into direct conflict with the US. They don't, however, want to reduce US influence to such a degree that Japan doesn't feel protected; otherwise, Japan might feel the need to rearm. Bingo.

China's rise has already made the Japanese very nervous, and there is an intense debate taking place within Japan about amending article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. Many want to rearm so as to be able to protect the nation's vulnerable sea lanes from China's military buildup -- and that terrifies Beijing's foreign policy establishment. It's simple. We tell the Chinese to reign in Pyongyang or we will stop reigning in the Japanese. In fact, we make it clear that we will further encourage Tokyo to assume greater responsibility for Japan's defense, a proposal that has panicked Beijing in the past.

Forgive the cursory review of my position, but it's late, and I am too tired to go really in-depth.

-Quinn

[suckseed]

On the contrary (if I may butt in for just a second), that was really interesting. And it makes sense, and it's simple.

[hondarobot]

I'd agree on all points, but I'm still not 100% certain if the missle was intercepted or if it simply failed. I'm kinda leaning towards it having failed, which is somewhat interesting.

Regardless, I'm sure that thing wouldn't have been in the air much longer then it was in any case.

[Quinn]

Honda, I can certainly understand your inclination toward believing that the missile launch simply failed, particularly if you take the American media's portrayal of North Korea's capabilities at face value. For all either of us knows, that may very well be what happened. I am, however, inclined to think otherwise, even if it does mean that I am going out on a limb.

Allow me to go into more detail about the specifics of the launch and its corollary issues so as to add some clarity to my position. To my mind, the duration of the launch is particularly telling. According to both the DoD and the White House National Security Adviser, the missile failed between 35 and 42 seconds after launch. Depending upon the variant of Taepodong II launched (It's still debated whether it was a 2A, 2B, or 2C), the boost phase of the launch alone should have lasted between 112 and 140 seconds. If you take into account the coast phase and the terminal phase, the missile should have burned for a little more than twice the time of the launch phase. This means that the missile "failed/malfunctioned" very early, during the boost phase of its launch.

It's at this point that considering the history and scope of the technology behind the Taepodong II becomes critical. To begin with, the technology is over fifty years old and is regarded as extremely reliable. Furthermore, variants of this same technology have already been successfully tested by both the DPRK and Iran (which happens to be the financial backer for Pyongyang's missile program). Both countries have, in turn, shared this missile technology with Pakistan in exchange for help from Islamabad with their nuclear weapons programs.

The point of all of this is that the Taepodong II's booster is very very reliable. The likelihood that this proven system would have failed during the boost phase, which often means that something went wrong with the guidance system, is remote at best. It's much more likely that a malfunction would have occurred during separation, not during the boost phase.

Systems like the ABL and MTHEL(which is generally designed for smaller missiles) are but a few of the KNOWN systems the US government has been working on that demonstrate the capability for boost phase interception -- which is what I believe occurred.

-Quinn

Note: The chart below shows the design evolution of the Taepodong II. Ghauri missiles are used by Pakistand and Shahab missiles are used by Iran. Both states use -- and have tested -- missiles that are exact duplicates of North Korean designed missiles.

[hondarobot]

Excellent data, and the timing of the whole thing does make an intercept very much possible. The theory I'm working on is, possibly the malfunction (if that's what it was) was the result of some elements of the design or build team. I'm assuming the weapons were constructed within North Korea itself.

What I'm getting at is, what if some of the people inside the DPRK military (or the techs working for the military) are starting to think "You know, if this missle launch actually works, there's a lot of people with lots scarier weapons that are going to get really pissed off. . . and I wonder how many Trident subs are lurking near by. . ."

But who knows? I agree it's totally possible it was incercepted, it certainly wouldn't be very hard to do, given all the time we've known he was preparing this.

But maybe, some N. Korean elements are gearing up for a coup before things go completely ape shit, and are just keeping things cooled off while they finish ploting things out. Interesting times, in any case.

[Jasadin]

I'm leaning more towards the idea that the missiles were put our there to make the free world recognize and/or react with diplomacy . Korea can still save face without actually blowing up something.They know we are quite busy at the moment with"the war on terra".Since we think they got something(wmds) and it's possible they could use(they want us to believe)it.I think the old idea of sanctions will have to be reexamined.


We will be forced to come to the table and deal.

[White_Male_Canada]

"Soooh. You dink I kan't go Boom Boom long time? I show you!! I make BIG Boom Boom. I reeel man!"

[Quinn]

I'm leaning more towards the idea that the missiles were put our there to make the free world recognize and/or react with diplomacy . Korea can still save face without actually blowing up something.They know we are quite busy at the moment with"the war on terra".Since we think they got something(wmds) and it's possible they could use(they want us to believe)it.I think the old idea of sanctions will have to be reexamined.

Great post. So far as North Korea's intentions are concerned, I don't think anyone would argue against the position that they are attempting to force a diplomatic agreement on their terms. Sanctions are a good idea, but they won't work if China doesn't sign on -- something the Chinese are less than eager to do.

What the US has been doing is aggressively targeting Pyongyang's worldwide criminal network (heroine dealing through front companies and embassies, printing so-called supernotes, etc.) -- the source from which it obtains most of its foreign exchange. It has been widely speculated that the effectiveness of this program is what has caused the North to intiate this series of missile tests. In other words, its a message: Back the fuck off or you will get more trouble than you are ready for; give us what we want and we will go away.

-Quinn

[White_Male_Canada]

Watch GW ratchet up the pressure in similar manner to how Reagan broke the back of the USSR. Lil` kim just wants his shit back. He ain`t gonna get it, the big boys are in charge now.

Last year, the U.S. government blacklisted the bank, accusing it of laundering money for North Korea. This is a charge the bank denies.

"Banco Delta Asia provided a tolerant environment for illicit North Korean activities," said Daniel Glaser, from the U.S. Treasury Department.

The North Korean companies laundered money and attempted to pass it through the bank, he said.

At the heart of North Korea's illicit operations, U.S. officials and law enforcement sources say, is the Zokwang trading company. It is staffed by North Koreans with diplomatic passports. In the mid 1990s, several Zokwang officials were arrested by Macau police on suspicion of passing fake U.S. bills, some of which were traced to Banco Delta Asia.

The accused North Koreans used their diplomatic status to leave Macau without ever going on trial. But the U.S. government is convinced the counterfeiting continued. When the sanctions against Banco Delta Asia were announced, there was a run on the bank, with thousands lining up to get their cash out.

The U.S. move and the resulting panic led the Macau authorities to take control of the bank and freeze dozens of accounts linked to North Korea worth more than $20 million.

"They have already stopped all transactions of those North Korean accounts," said Deborah Ng from the Macau Monetary Authority.

American officials say Pyongyang's dirty deals go well beyond counterfeiting U.S. dollars.

"It's amazing the quality of counterfeit cigarettes being produced in North Korea. Counterfeit Viagra -- major market. These items are providing income that goes right to the top," says David Asher, a former state department official.edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/05/18/nkorea.macau/index.html