Peaceful resolution - Iran Nukes

[chefmike]

There will be an opportunity to make tremendous profits shorting certain stocks and currencies.

speaking of selling short, the market is dropping even faster than the chimp-in-chief's approval ratings today...

[Vicki Richter]

Chefmike I demand that you actually take a stance on an issue. That is so typical... Be a diehard liberal, but when the real politics and hard questions come up, just avoid making any statement. What is your opinion on this situation Mr Biscuits and fish sticks or whatever it is.

[chefmike]

LMAO...you demand? And BTW it was shrimp and biscuits, and I think you know what we were referring to...

I consider the chimp-in-chief and the rest of the neocon chickenhawks in his inner circle a far greater danger than anything happening in Iran...have a nice day....luv ya, mean it...

[trish]

Ahmadinejad is only the president of Iran and not the Supreme Leader (who is Ali Khamenei). Ahmadinejad's concerns are largely domestic politics. Just like western a politician, Ahmadinejad exasperates frictions to coalesce his base, maintain his popularity and to keep his power within the government secure.

[Quinn]

There will be an opportunity to make tremendous profits shorting certain stocks and currencies.

speaking of selling short, the market is dropping even faster than the chimp-in-chief's approval ratings today...

No doubt, this is some interesting and profitable shit. One non-word: Cha-fucking-ching. If the Dow breaks below 11k within the next couple of days (or weeks), we will probably see a sell-off back to around 10K.

To comment on some of the previous points, Iran has yet to even recognize Israel’s right to exist, so all other commentary relating to regime change is a moot point so far as any gauge of hostile intent is concerned. If Iran's hardliners think that they can raise their standing at home and abroad – in the Arab world – by increasing the degree of saber rattling with Israel, they are playing a dangerous game. Israel, for it's part, is taking these comments with utmost seriousness and has been wargaming accordingly.

What pisses me off about all of this is how our venture into Iraq has undermined our capability to deal with Iran. The threshold for internationally accepted action against Iran is now much higher because of Iraq. Worst of all, we can't even begin to financially afford a prolonged conflict of any sort with Iran – which is something they are very aware of and are using to their advantage. Iraq, for it's part, is now costing us 10 billion dollars a month

-Quinn

[Quinn]

Ahmadinejad is only the president of Iran and not the Supreme Leader (who is Ali Khamenei). Ahmadinejad's concerns are largely domestic politics. Just like western a politician, Ahmadinejad exasperates frictions to coalesce his base, maintain his popularity and to keep his power within the government secure.

The Guardian Council (and to a lesser degree the Revolutionary Guard) is the real power in Iran. Ahmadinejad and the other hardliners all take their direction from the Guardian Council. The word for today is theocracy, or as I prefer to call it, barbarism of the highest order.

-Quinn

[chefmike]

There will be an opportunity to make tremendous profits shorting certain stocks and currencies.

speaking of selling short, the market is dropping even faster than the chimp-in-chief's approval ratings today...

No doubt, this is some interesting and profitable shit. One non-word: Cha-fucking-ching. If the Dow breaks below 11k within the next couple of days (or weeks), we will probably see a sell off-back to around 10K.

To comment on some of the previous points, Iran has yet to even recognize Israel’s right to exist, so all other commentary relating to regime change is a moot point so far as any gauge of hostile intent is concerned. If Iran's hardliners think that they can raise their standing at home and abroad – in the Arab world – by increasing the degree of saber rattling with Israel, they are playing a dangerous game. Israel, for it's part, is taking these comments with utmost seriousness and has been wargaming accordingly.

What pisses me off about all of this is how our venture into Iraq has undermined our capability to deal with Iran. The threshold for internationally accepted action against Iran is now much higher because of Iraq. Worst of all, we can't even begin to financially afford a prolonged conflict of any sort with Iran – which is something they are very aware of and are using to their advantage. Iraq, for it's part, is now costing us 10 billion dollars a month

-Quinn

Exactly, and you and I have discused this in other threads...and now we are sending the National Guard to the Mexican border, when we are already using them to prop up our troops in Iraq...and meanwhile China just sits back, watches and waits....

[specialk]

Ok so Miss Vicky wants to open the discussion on Iran, why not it's great to hear all the different perspectives on the topic, and at least it shows people of all ages and backgrounds are at least paying attention, and thats a good thing.

So far I think the comments of Quinn's and Felicia's (as usual) paint the most accurate picture from my perspective. Chef Mike's political instincts mirror mine to a tee and Trish's made several good points.

So here's my angle. Politics, is first and foremost, all about motivation. It 's not just enough to hear what a political leader is saying, but more importantly, WHY IS HE SAYING WHAT HE'S SAYING? What is his moivation and who will be the winners and who will be the losers. With that understanding you can figure out what the politicians in Wash. or even your local community have up their sleaves.

Getting back to Iran, consider this......they are sitting at the poker table. The stakes are high. To the far West sits Israel (not on Iran's Xmas list) they have Nuclear weapons, given to them from the US Gov. paid for by the US Taxpayers. (Isreal is the largest recipient of foreign aid from the US to the area of 4-5 Billion annualy). They do not posses nuclear capability, and have never admitted publicly that they possess the Nukes we gave them. Sitting now at the immediate left to Iran at the poker table is the US Military, not a comfortable feeling for the Iranians, whom don't get along with them. On Iran's right side is Russia, followed by China.

Now the stakes. Iran has plenty of oil, it's their ace in the hole. They also have big oil contracts with the players to their right (Russia and China).
They are leaning toward Iran's side because they need them. Iran's a little nervous with the players to their left, so maybe they think now is an ideal time to make a nuclear play. Why? One, nukes are are great deterent to unfriendly neighbors. Consider this, Pakistan and India hate one another as much as Israel and all it's neighbors, yet since they (Pakistan and India) both have nukes they co-exist quite remarkably. Yeh, there is the area of Kashmir under dispute, but believe me it's not worth total inihilation. You must remember THERE ARE NO WINNERS IN A NUCLEAR SLUGFEST AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT!!! Nukes are just a great deterent to hostile neighbors, and we have 60 yrs. of history to back it up. North Korea has an even bigger whacko in charge, they have nukes, so why don't they hit South Korea with them? It's all over for the North, plain and simple. And that porn lovin' nutcase doesn't want to give up his nintendo no way no how!

Getting back to the poker game. Consider the hand the US is sitting at the table with. They couldn't begin to mount an invasion of any kind at this particular point for several reasons. The obvious is the quagmire in Iraq, depleting the treasury, the total lack of support from the electorate at home but......more importantly!!!! OIL!!!! Consider this. If we knocked out Iran's ability to continue their nuclear program or even worse their ability to pump oil the effect on the world oil markets would be catastrophic....causing crude prices to shoot to the stratosphere, deeply hurting our economy at home, at a time when things are financialy shakey here. Thus we would be shooting ourselves in the foot, with an "ALL IN" move in this game. Not to mention pissing off Iran's 2 biggest customers China and Russia. And........all the other players at the poker table know it!!!!

So for now we play the diplomatic cards we're holding, in hopes of drawing a few aces later on perhaps. But don't bet the ranch on it folks. I'd be willing to speculate Iran has the poker equivelent of a straight flush perhaps, and from my vantage point the US is holding maybe 3 of a kind.

Consider this. With vast oil reserves, Iran has the ability to live the good life. They can have a fundamental religious style leadership. The population, as pointed out by another poster, is quite young in age, AND they dig western style culture big time. So. what's the hurry to take a chance to send it all into nuclear oblivion? NONE.

Iran will have nuclear capability some day some way, bet on that. Will they self destruct and start some shit they can't win??? I think not, and you can bet on that too.

Sorry to be so longwinded about it all folks.

[chefmike]

That was a damn good, and very interesting analogy, specialk!

[trish]

right on, specialk