Peaceful resolution - Iran Nukes

[Vicki Richter]

I think it wouldn't hurt to basically lay it on the line and say,

"OK... It's OK if you develop nuclear capabilities. However, if the US or any of our allies get nuke'd, we aren't even going to bother to find out who did it, we are going to level your country and everyone in it."

Of course their alternative would be to rethink whether they want nuclear capabilities since not having them would clearly exempt them from being the one's who pulled the trigger.

I'm surprised that one of the hard left or right wingers hasn't commented on this issue. It's actually a very challenging political problem. You see, Israel will not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. Period. They are extremely vulnerable and they know just a few suicide nuclear bombers could lay waste to their entire country. Being our main ally in the middle east, we can't really allow them to fight this thing alone.

This is one of those, "nothing good will come of this" type of situations. Should we get involved, should we happily ignore the problem, or approach it diplomatically? Personally I don't think diplomacy is going to work. However, I don't really think we should continue fighting the worlds problems alone either.

[trish]

if the Iranians wanted to nuke Israel, they'd have to avoid the sacriledge of contaminating Palestine which is of course a Muslim holy city. when it comes to "truely" holy sites, it's not clear that the "if i can't have it nobody can" psychology is at play. so my question is: just how likely is a nuclear attack on Jeruselum from a Muslim nation or a Muslim organization.

[Vicki Richter]

Well... The president of Iran is a flaming whacko and very irresponsible. For example, saying that you want Israel wiped off the face of the earth is pretty strong language from a diplomatic leader. When you don't have the means to do it, it can be taken lightly, but with nukes... well that is something different. Also he is denying the holocaust and making other completely whack statements.

I think the point is that, after making those comments, Israel is obviously not going to feel safe with Iran having WMD's.

Do I feel they will really pull the trigger? Well that would obvioulsy be insane for Iran to do that... However, give the nuke to some terrorist organization and claim it was stolen and you have plausible deniability. From a terrorist perspective, they could even point at the former Soviet Union countries and suggest it was them. I wouldn't anticipate a direct and obvious attack, because that isn't how terrorists typically work. They make sure not to have a direct country affilliation to the governments they are representing.

[blahblahblah]

If Israel is allowed to have nuclear power then why is Iran not allowed to have the same capability? It is very natural for Iran to feel threatened by Izrael in such situation, isn't it? It might be better to balance the forces and in that way create a kind of status quo, don't you think so? Either take away the nuclear power from Izrael's hands or balance the things out.

Izrael has become vulnerable only because of it's own apartheid politics against palestinians. They are provoking the entire arab world by performing long-term ethnic cleansing against palestinians, by stealing their country, by putting them in some kind of conc. camps (Sabra & Shatilla), etc.. Right? Indirectly, it was Israel who created all those terrorists around. Just look at Ireland & UK. Same shit happened there.

Izrael is not USA's main ally in the middle east, it's USA's biggest problem in the middle east.

"fighting the worlds problem alone" is pretty wrong. I'd rather express it as:
"creating the worlds problem alone" - that's what USA does today.

And lastly, please compare Bush with that iranian jerk: - ain't they the same shit, both of them?

[Vicki Richter]

No really they are our main ally. You might say Saudi is, but I don't think our government sees it that way.

You sound like an antisematist McMan. That is disappointing coming from you.

It is simple... Israel aren't whacky extremists who go into other countries and blow themselves up in church. They don't make statements at the presidential level saying lets wipe Iran off the face of the earth. They have had nuclear capability for years and they haven't used it to threaten others in the middle east with destruction.

The irony is there were/are several arab nations surrounding Israel when it was formed, some of which realistically should have accepted the responsibility for the Palestinians. Their own people didn't want them. These were people pawned off by their native countries and made into Israel's problem. It would be like Mexico coming in and winning Texas in a war, and us telling Mexico that now our people are there problem. If they really cared about them, they would simply have made them part of their tax infrastrcuture and helped build them up from the squaller that they live in. Instead they make them the problem of someone who also doesn't want them.

[blahblahblah]

No, i'm not antisematist in any way. I'm just kind of pissed off because it seems like that f...... middle east crisis is gonna whipe out entire Earth one day..

[Vicki Richter]

Yes it will. Fire and brimstone baby!

[Quinn]

Interesting topic. I’ve been following this whole thing very closely and am more than a little concerned. To begin with, Iran is clearly intent upon developing nuclear weapons. The way I see it, the issues are as follows:

1. Iran needs nuclear power as an energy source about as much as Eskimos need refrigeration.
2. If Iran’s nuclear program is intended to meet civilian energy needs only, why hide it for nearly 18 years from the IAEA in a multi-billion dollar network of underground bunkers?
3. If Iran’s nuclear program is designed to meet civilian energy needs, why enrich uranium so far past the point necessary to fuel nuclear reactors? There is only one reason to do so, and that’s because they are intent upon developing nuclear weapons.
4. The Iranians are holding all of the cards, and they know it:

a. If we don’t stop them from developing nuclear weapons, it will prove a major moral victory for Iran’s hardliners, legitimizing them in the eye’s of Iran’s restive youth population. It will also allow Iran to bully its neighbors to an even greater degree than it has in the past.
b. If we use precision strikes to destroy – or attempt to destroy – Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it will unify Iran’s population behind the hardliners (Guardian Council, Revolutionary Guards, etc.). This is particularly important given that most of Iran’s population was born after the 1979 revolution. These youths tend to have more issues with what they view as a corrupt theocratic establishment than they do with the West.
c. Iran’s mountainous geography (excluding the plains of the Southeast), large population, and extremely well defined sense of cultural nationalism (Persian culture being one of the world’s oldest, etc.) make any occupation of that nation doomed to fail.
d. The Chinese and Russians have no intention of supporting a strike against Iran no matter what it does. If memory serves, China receives, or soon will receive, about 20% of its oil from Iran. Russia has lucrative contracts with Iran for weapons and “scientific” cooperation.

My take on this: Iran is a nation that the West can not allow to have nuclear weapons. They need to be stopped by any means necessary. Fortunately, the Europeans realize this and are even more worried than Washington (probably because they get so much of their oil from the Persian Gulf). Everyone knows these negotiations are doomed to fail. The Iranians are just trying to run out the clock, and the West is making a show of exhausting all options before seeking a military solution. Washington, for its part, is also buying time until some of it’s newest ground penetrating weapons are ready for action in the field.

I think a conflict of some sort is inevitable. For you speculators out there, pay close attention to these developments. There will be an opportunity to make tremendous profits shorting certain stocks and currencies.

-Quinn

[blahblahblah]

Yes it will. Fire and brimstone baby!

...buhuu...

[houstonshemalefan]

I agree 100% with Vicki on this. However, I think that Iran will piss off enough non US countries in the next few years that the US will basically be able to stay out of it.