What's Next for the Republican Party?

[Stavros]

There was a short, but brutal remark by an Hispanic American on the BBC last night -he argued most Hispanics are 'family values' people, they are religious, they often run their own small business and don't like paying taxes or filling in forms, their children go into the military -we are natural Republicans, he said. The problem with the Republican Party when asked? They don't want us here.

How long will it be before an American President is chosen from among its Hispanic communities?

[Stavros]

Yes, John 'Tanning Bed' Boehner, is the senior Republican. And 2nd in line to be President, God forbid both the President and the Vice President were killed or became incapacitated. It's President Obama then V.P. Biden, then Boehner, then Senator Harry Reid.

As you said Obama didn't win with much of a mandate. Obama won 49.9% and Romney won 49.3% of the popular vote.

In the 2010 election, the 'Tea Party' election, In the House of Representatives, the Republicans won 51.38% and the Democrats won 44.77% of the popular vote. (Every member of the House stands election every 2 years, so that may have been the temperature of the electorate that year). In the Senate, where only 1/3 of the members faced election that year, the Republicans won 49.37% of the vote and the Democrats won 43.98%. Much greater margins that Obama vs. Romney 2012. The Republicans also won the vast majority of the Governor races. (The Governor is the executive in charge of each State.)

Do they reinforce their conservative economics? Well, it seems that's what the electorate wanted in 2010. Romney was not a Tea Party favorite. Republicans did very well in the 2010 election. Very well. If Obama had been up for re-election in 2010, he probably would have lost.

So, did the electorate change that much from 2008 to 2010, and then again from 2010 to 2012?

Maybe it was the candidate. And the way he explained his positions to the masses. There are a lot of similarities in the economic situation of the USA when it was Jimmy Carter vs. Ronald Reagan in 1976 and as it is this year with Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney. Romney was an unpopular candidate who was quite stiff. Ronald Reagan, on the other hand, wasn't stiff. He seemed more 'approachable', and Reagan was able to get a large amount of 'traditional' Democratic voters to switch sides and vote for him.

So, I'm not sure the answer is that simple. With only .6% difference in the popular vote and slim margins of victories in the 'Swing States', it may have been Hurricane Sandy that made the difference. MSNBC host and Obama supporter Chris Matthews said "I'm so glad we had that storm last week." It took the focus off the economy and gave Obama the chance to fly to the storm on Air Force One and 'look Presidential' and 'concerned'. If the Hurricane had hit 3 weeks ago, perhaps FEMA's poor response and allowing Romney to refocus on the economy would have tipped the results in Romney's favor.

Just some thoughts.

I sincerely hope the President is successful as he faces the challenges of his 2nd term.

Which is why I think that had this election been as 'radical' as some pundits believe -that hideous loud-mouth Andrew Sullivan was on the BBC last night making inflated statements one of which was that the Democrats could be in power for years because of the implosion in the GOP- then the House would be Democrat; certainly there was no haemorrhage of the Republican vote comparable to the Conservative defeat by Blair in 1997.

[Willie Escalade]

There was a short, but brutal remark by an Hispanic American on the BBC last night -he argued most Hispanics are 'family values' people, they are religious, they often run their own small business and don't like paying taxes or filling in forms, their children go into the military -we are natural Republicans, he said. The problem with the Republican Party when asked? They don't want us here.

How long will it be before an American President is chosen from among its Hispanic communities?

2016...maybe 2020.

[Prospero]

It won't be that long I suspect. Perhaps a Republican if they wake up to reality.
The Republicans for the short term are likely to continue to be opposed to anything and everything that President obama proposes. The tea party in Congress really didn't suffer any reverses.

I would suspect that on a longer term basis there will be a battle for the soul of the party. Will the economy improve? if it does then the tea party will begin to wither. if not then it will fight to gain greater control of the Republicans. The religious right on the other hand seem to have been fired a warning shot or two. Those fools with their remarks about rape have been ushered into the darkness. The social conservatives are not the wave of the future and I think that this election might be the point at which the Republicans realise a need to embrace a wider America.

But for the next election? Hilary? But she'll be 69. Biden. He has hinted he might run. Cuomo?

Ryan? Or Jeb Bush? Rubio?

Off the cuff remarks.

[danthepoetman]

There was a short, but brutal remark by an Hispanic American on the BBC last night -he argued most Hispanics are 'family values' people, they are religious, they often run their own small business and don't like paying taxes or filling in forms, their children go into the military -we are natural Republicans, he said. The problem with the Republican Party when asked? They don't want us here.

How long will it be before an American President is chosen from among its Hispanic communities?

But they are Catholics, Stavros. Not sure you can make Catholics swallow that God wants them to make money and couldn’t care less about the miserable. The fundamentalist Christian religious ideology at the basis of today’s Republicanism is something totally alien to my catholic background, I can tell you that. It rather sounds like the opposite of Christianity. I’m far from sure this will all mix with the Hispanics culture…

[broncofan]

But they are Catholics, Stavros. Not sure you can make Catholics swallow that God wants them to make money and couldn’t care less about the miserable. The fundamentalist Christian religious ideology at the basis of today’s Republicanism is something totally alien to my catholic background, I can tell you that. It rather sounds like the opposite of Christianity. I’m far from sure this will all mix with the Hispanics culture…

This is interesting Dan as I have a lot of friends who come from a Catholic background and are flexible in terms of their politics. On the other hand I have talked to some devout Catholics who simply could not vote for a Democrat because the party is deemed to favor abortion (a wholly judicial issue outside the political realm now). In fact, a number of these Catholics are Hispanic and perhaps you are right that it is a mix of culture blended with religion.

It's another point that while Democrats pick up voters who are attracted to its core values, liberalizing social policy, making economic burdens more equitable, Republicans often have to morph their values to win over segments of the population. They have pursued an unforgiving immigration policy that promotes the use of invasive investigatory techniques to challenge the citizenship of Hispanics in border states. They even had several pundits such as Pat Buchanan who have taken to discussing why immigrants coming from our Southern border are different and harmful to our culture whereas the European immigrants of the first part of the 20th century were not. Many of the Speak English campaigns seeking to ban non-English dialects in the workplace were promoted by right wing groups, yet everything Stavros says is true. Many small business owners with conservative social values. This is an emerging issue.

How will the GOP contort to capture their votes? They have already bent over backwards to accommodate the racists who want to purge the southwest of Hispanics. Can they simultaneously capture the vote of conservative Hispanics and develop a very dependable part of their base? The video on the previous page shows an identity crisis of sorts. They have become such a hodge podge of competing interests. Some woman saying she wants the pro-life voice of the party to have a fair hearing. Sure, but might that not alienate younger voters and women? I think with outreach efforts they can win the Hispanic vote without too much hemorrhage but they will have to be less vitriolic on immigration issues.

Afterall, the people who want to purge Hispanics from the Southwest aren't going to vote Democrat anyway. But they are their own worst enemies because if they are more reasonable on the immigration front we will hear more of this RINO (republican in name only) talk from the extreme wing of the base and this will be a turnoff to Hispanics with conservative values.

[danthepoetman]

Very deep analysis, Broncofan. I was just speaking out of my mind on the moment “it” was coming out of it. lol. You right: it’s much more complicated than what I was talking about.
I must admit to you though, that I always have a hard time thinking “republican”; it’s like trying to fit my liberal mind in some alien geometry…
Hey! when I read the thread topic, this is pretty much what came to my mind:

[Prospero]

Broncofan wrote: "Republicans often have to morph their values to win over segments of the population. They have pursued an unforgiving immigration policy that promotes the use of invasive investigatory techniques to challenge the citizenship of Hispanics in border states. They even had several pundits such as Pat Buchanan who have taken to discussing why immigrants coming from our Southern border are different and harmful to our culture whereas the European immigrants of the first part of the 20th century were not. Many of the Speak English campaigns seeking to ban non-English dialects in the workplace were promoted by right wing groups, "

Do you think that the first element of this is to do rather simply with short term electoral politics rather than any deeper issues?

Buchanan on the other hand is reflecting a concern I've seen widely discussed and reported over a much longer time period - namely about the shifting nature of the US and a fear among many primarily white Americans of a northern european background that the nation will over coming decades be one where their long cultural domination will be eclipsed. The rise of the asian, black but particularly Hispanic population, has provoked serious debate about the demographics of late 21st century America and onwards.

I've certainly seen some pundits talk of a white rebellion - characterised as being an underscore to the growth of the tea party - having its last gasp at this election.

[danthepoetman]

After an attempt at one strategy, you wander if there is not quite a bit of fatigue...

[danthepoetman]

Aren't you affraid that in the end something like this comes out of it all?