Should Greece leave the Euro?

[JamesHunt]

Yes, No or who gives a shit?

[Ben]

I don't live in Europe so... I mean, I, honestly, don't know enough about it. All I can say: I think every country should control their own currency.... I think the idea of a single currency was a mistake.
But it all seemed doomed from the start...

[robertlouis]

Yes, No or who gives a shit?

It's one of those subjects that's so complex you'd be best to hang on till Stavros throws in his mighty two euros, or maybe drachmas....

The Greeks are damned if they stay in and damned if they leave. It's like the old joke about the traveller in Ireland asking for directions and the local tells him that he wouldn't start from here.

[Stavros]

I don't know what it is that is so complex about this problem. The parity on a range of indicators that states who wanted to join the Euro were supposed to meet, was never met in Greece's case, but then it wasn't really met in Italy's case either. How anyone ever meets parity when Germany is the benchmark economy I don't know.

The Kohl government in Germany supported the entry of Greece, and also Italy into monetary union for political reasons, one of which was an anxiety that Germany not be seen to be the dominant power in Europe, dictating who or who could not join the EuroClub. For obvious historical reasons. Widening the membership of the club would therefore be a sign that Germany was an inclusive, welcoming partner. Italy was the largest European state with no hope of meeting the criteria for membership, not least because its domestic tax regime is known by anyone who knows Italy to be a farce.

Greece was in the same position as Italy as far as its ability to lie about its finances was concerned. The problem is that Greece lost 13% of its population during the Nazi occupation, and sought reparations from West Germany after the war which were written into various treaties in the 1950s but never paid. There is a fierce residue of bitterness in Greece about the post-war era because of Greece's own struggle with political extemism (Communism at one end, neo-fascism at the other) its lamentable history of military rule, and its inability to even conclusively define it own borders, with the 'Former Yugoslav Republic of Madeconia' being one unresolved headache. One Greek politician has even suggested re-structuring Greeke into separate states like they had when Pericles was around.

When Greece did apply to join the Euro it did so on terms that meant that whereas the Drachma had been trading at 172 to one Deutschmark before the Euro was set up, on entry the rate was 347.5 drachma for one euro. You do the maths! As part of the agreement, states joining the Euro were expected to waive any existing claims against other member states, which to some Greeks meant that their government was so desperate to join it was prepared to ditch the entire legacy of the Nazi occupation and the crisis years that followed, as part of some 'European dream'...but there's more: strictly speaking a state cannot be expelled from the monetary system but it can resign, but it then has the right to claim compensation for any damage caused during its membership. So Greece is in a position where its Government has lied to everyone about its financial health before joining the Euro, it borrowed as much as it could under the rules to buy the loyalty of Greek voters through shameless pump-priming, economic mismanagement and fantasy jobs, its debt is now something like 110% of GDP, a debt that has been spread around European banks and loaded twice over with two bail-outs, with the possibility of a third, yet it has no hope of repaying the loans over the next 100 years unless it finds several gigantic oil fields off the coast of Athens (well anywhere will do), and has therefore eroded the credit-worthiness of the banks that have leant it money it won't get back, while Greece itself could, on leaving the Euro, claim compensation for losses to its economy as a consequence of it being forced to leave the Euro!

Look on the bright side. Greece goes bankrupt, leaves the Eurozone. The New Drachma becomes the currency, the rate of exchange makes Greece a cheap place in which to re-locate business, bringing in much-needed capital to the country. It also makes Greece so attractive a place to visit and live in, that it becomes a Euro-retirement state, like Florida is in the USA.

Get in early, and you can probably buy your own Greek island at bargain-basement prices, complete with a small population of elderly men and women, an orthodox church, probably perched perilously on a hill overlooking the town, luxury accommodation, swimming pool, servants, the wine-dark oceans where Ulysses wandered, and free kebabs for life.

Well, someone has been kebabbed over this, thats for sure.

[jimbo1974]

I think the ironic thing here is : The overwhelming majority of the Greek people want to keep the Euro, such is their mistrust of their own politicians managing things

Its a total mess, no matter which scenario you look at.

The best solution, is the debts of the PIGS becomes a Euro debt, i.e Germany / France and the northern states pay it off.

[Stavros]

Are you crazy? Why should either the Germans or the French or the British pay off the loans that the Greek government took out? British banks are exposed too. At some point, like a bank that fails, Greece will go to the wall, to me it looks like even another bail-out will only buy time until the next one. You could step back and criticise the whole of the lending system in the first place, which was part of the toxic fluid that eventually contaminated so many accounts by 2008 something had to give. JP Morgan could be vulnerable. We may not be in the Euro, but the British are also paying for Greek duplicity -and we haven't even begun to consider what happens when Spain and Italy come close to the wire.

[jimbo1974]

Are you crazy?

No. Im just offering an opinion.

Why should either the Germans or the French or the British pay off the loans that the Greek government took out?.

I didnt say the British should, i said the EURO members should. In otherwords - have a fiscal Union.

Germany have profited MASSIVELY from the euro. Who built the trains in Greece ? Siemens. Who built the new airport and other infrastructure in Greece ? I wonder....

The point of it is - Germany cannot have it every way they want. You are right - Greece had irresponsible lending but the people will not tolerate the austerity. If it becomes a Euro debt, it is manageable. It would also stabilise Italy and Spain.

British banks are exposed too. At some point, like a bank that fails, Greece will go to the wall, to me it looks like even another bail-out will only buy time until the next one. You could step back and criticise the whole of the lending system in the first place, which was part of the toxic fluid that eventually contaminated so many accounts by 2008 something had to give. JP Morgan could be vulnerable. We may not be in the Euro, but the British are also paying for Greek duplicity -and we haven't even begun to consider what happens when Spain and Italy come close to the wire.

Its no news the lending system created this in the first place - we knew this 4 years ago. Why bother raking that one up ?

And yes - British banks are exposed. Would YOU feel more comfortable knowing Germany was going to pay you back or Greece ?

It is the only solution - fiscal union, and it is coming

[markyboy21]

Greece was always going to go bust without being able to devalue and with an economic system doomed to failure.
The Greek state pension starts at 53 and is 90% of the person's final salary for 600 professions, with some included for being hazardous such as hairdressers and pastry chefs(?). Therefore, most will take out far more than they ever paid in.
The Greek rail network is state owned and pays salaries that equate to 3 or 4 times the revenue collected as fares, with the surplus coming from central government taxes.
Add the two above examples with a thriving black market economy, where avoiding sales taxes is rife and you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what's going to happen.
There is also a reluctance for the German's bail out people they see as lazy, as viewed on Michael Portillo's documentary 'This World'.
Europe needs Greece outside the Euro and possibily Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland as well, before it can stabilise. The problem is although a lot of people can see what is needed, the politicians have still got this dream of a United States of Europe and will not let common sense prevail over their ego for this goal.
In case you hadn't guessed I'm a eurosceptic. I love Europe though, I just want it to remain different and not become homogenised.

[tsadriana]

Well Greece never paid taxes in their bloody lifes ,sorry but how can u sivive in Europe without payng nothing?Sorry to say that but better without Greece ,i dont see the point in helping a country who dont wants to do nothing.

[tsadriana]

I have chatted with few friends about this situation i Europe and as they said in the end the East Europe will become the strongest power in Europe....I doubt it but always a surprise can be a big surprise.