What To Do About Syria

[hippifried]

I think everybody's trying to read too much into what's going on.
Assad, like any dictator, is trying to hang onto power. To be expected. Russia & China vetoed the Security Council resolution because it was a demand for him to step down, with a UN mandate to enforce it. Forced regime change. Sound familiar? They probably would have been on board for the same actions taken in Libya. Diplomacy won't work. He has to go, but it has to be his idea. Either that or the opposition gets to him. There was some high mucky muck general taken out by an assassin today. Assad doesn't need to be killed outright. Just get real close so he knows he can be had, & he'll bail on his own. If not, oh well. Iran won't get involved & neither will the Saudis. Jordan's already under extreme internal pressures to be rid of the monarchy. Saudi Arabia's on the list.

Israel isn't a player in any of this at all. Must piss them off to no end, but who cares? They made themselves insignificant. They're not going to attack Iran. Neither are we. When they bombed Iraq, they only had to violate Jordanian airspace. To attack Iran, they'd have to go through us or Turkey. They need permission before trying to push their way through somebody who has the wherewithal to knock them out of the sky.

As for the lack of empathy from a segment of the political sphere: Some (Rustaffa) is just mindless hatred. Others from the US is just mindless. Most of this week's isolationists would be all gung ho to go into Syria & kick ass if President Obama woud just say he's against it.

[Prospero]

I agree with this.
Stavros wrote: "Too many young men have been killed or wounded for life in Iraq and Afghanistan, its not like Britain shied away from those war zones; and I don't want see anyone else killed, whoever they are, wherever they are."

[russtafa]

I think everybody's trying to read too much into what's going on.
Assad, like any dictator, is trying to hang onto power. To be expected. Russia & China vetoed the Security Council resolution because it was a demand for him to step down, with a UN mandate to enforce it. Forced regime change. Sound familiar? They probably would have been on board for the same actions taken in Libya. Diplomacy won't work. He has to go, but it has to be his idea. Either that or the opposition gets to him. There was some high mucky muck general taken out by an assassin today. Assad doesn't need to be killed outright. Just get real close so he knows he can be had, & he'll bail on his own. If not, oh well. Iran won't get involved & neither will the Saudis. Jordan's already under extreme internal pressures to be rid of the monarchy. Saudi Arabia's on the list.

Israel isn't a player in any of this at all. Must piss them off to no end, but who cares? They made themselves insignificant. They're not going to attack Iran. Neither are we. When they bombed Iraq, they only had to violate Jordanian airspace. To attack Iran, they'd have to go through us or Turkey. They need permission before trying to push their way through somebody who has the wherewithal to knock them out of the sky.

As for the lack of empathy from a segment of the political sphere: Some (Rustaffa) is just mindless hatred. Others from the US is just mindless. Most of this week's isolationists would be all gung ho to go into Syria & kick ass if President Obama woud just say he's against it.

hippie yah weak hippy shit grow some balls man.do you want a bunch of rag heads living next to you if you do you are fucking nuts never help the dirty scum

[Prospero]

Now one simply has to use the word jews instead of whatever racist word Russtafa spews when expressing his hatred for Muslims to see where he is coming from.

[russtafa]

Now one simply has to use the word jews instead of whatever racist word Russtafa spews when expressing his hatred for Muslims to see where he is coming from.

wow jews don't deal drugs don't blow up trains,planes ,don't harass the local population .you liberals imported these fucking pieces of shit into Europe and you love them so much why don't you ass kissing liberals go and live with them in the middle east and give the camel jockeys the comfort they deserve i'm sure they will let you suck their cocks lol

[Stavros]

In answer to Fred41’s earlier query about the political landscape inside Syria.

Historically, Syria presents itself as the heart of Arab nationalism, the first nationalist gatherings against Ottoman rule took place in Damascus in the 1880s, and from there the same kind of nationalism/national self-determination trend that had begun earlier in the 20th century grew in the Arab world. Syria has also claimed to have maintained this implacable hostility to foreign domination by appearing to reject every peace treaty with Israel and US interventions in the region–fine, yet the only way Bashar al-Asad could signify that any kind of change was going to happen in Syria was by continuing the import of foreign capital his father started in the 1990s.

Globalisation has exposed the fierce independence of Syria as a sham; it was isolation all along. And, economic growth since the 1990s is really economic management: foreign capital, be it Russian or Chinese, or partnership ventures with multinationals like Shell is part of the State directing economic behaviour. Free enterprise, which does not exist in Syria, could have created a vibrant and diverse economy; instead, central planning and a grace-and-favour system benefits those who now don’t want to lose their slice of the cake and grudgingly support Asad, but not the rural farming communities who have lost out to Asad’s limited and ineffective policy.

As far as the organisations go, it sort of looks like this, given that changes take place on a regular basis.

Ba’ath Party –the dominant political force, although initially a form of National Socialism for the Arabs, the ideological complexion was ditched by Hafiz al-Asad and became simply an instrument of power for the minority Alawite sect and their friends.

Muslim Brotherhood –the oldest political formation in the country was established not long after its creation in Egypt in 1928. The Brotherhood was been pummelled into submission by the violence of the state following its challenge for power between 1975 and 1983, and was as shocked as its Egyptian brothers by the uprisings and the power they represent. Currently trying to get its act together and is part of the Syrian National Council (see below).

Syrian National Council –this is one of two main opposition groupings who, in time-honoured Syrian fashion, don’t talk to each other. To complicate matters further, the SNC is itself a coalition of groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood; the Damascus Declaration Group (mostly reform-minded secular intellectuals); the so-called Istanbul Gathering (technocrats and moderate Muslims who formed an alliance in the safety of Istanbul), some Kurdish activists and some representatives of the Assyrians, the ancient non-Arab community mostly in the North and North-East who number around a million out of a total population of approx 22m. There would be more but the Assyrians were massacred around the same time as the Armenians in the Ottoman period (c1880-1923), a grim story that is as poorly understood as the Armenian one.

The National Co-ordination Committee –another coalition, this time of about 13 different parties and groups mostly on the left including Kurds and youth activists.

In spite of these two blocs representing so many different people, Christians, some Assyrians, the Druzes, and those Shi’a who are not part of the Alawite elite, are not well organised.

The principal difference between the two blocs, so far, is that where the NCC has called for dialogue with the regime if it stops the violence and releases political prisoners, and then work out a new system, the SNC rejects dialogue on any issue other than the dissolution of the Ba’ath regime and the transition to a new system. Both are opposed to foreign intervention, but so far it seems external powers have favoured the more moderate NCC over the SNC.

The Free Syrian Army –considered to be a sectarian group of disaffected Sunni officers whose leader organised the FSA in Turkey. Depending on who you believe they claim a membership of 10-15,000 but the FSA seems to be made up of different groups within it, and it is not clear who they are, although they are believed to be part of the resistance in cities such as Homs and Hama.

Youth Groups –young people, some as young as 17 have been the driving force behind the uprisings, many, but not all plugged into global social networks. Where they have organised, it has been in the form of local committees some of whom have allied themselves with the SNC –for example, some committees formed a Higher Council of the Syrian Revolution, and are allied with the Syrian National Council.

Some of the youth groups are Muslim activists, some are secular. The more extreme Salafi movement is based in the North-West in Deir al-Zor and historically was allowed to flourish as long as it spied on and informed on the operation of other Muslim groups, which it did.

In other words, there are a gallery of political actors in Syria, all are opposed to foreign military intervention; all want a change of regime, but where the SNC will not open a dialogue on this but in effect demands the resignation of the entire government, the NCC would accept a ceasefire followed by a phased transition to a new political system.

[fred41]

In answer to Fred41’s earlier query about the political landscape inside Syria.

Thank you Stavros.
This and your previous post gave me a history lesson on Syria that was informative and very easy to digest (I read your last post with a crushing hangover and still managed to navigate through it and, more important, commit it to memory).
Don't know if your a teacher, journalist or something along that vein.. but you're very good at it.
Thanks again.

[Stavros]

Thanks for the compliments Fred, I would like to think that the Syrians could find an easier way out of this mess, but reality is usually messy and when a country has done all it can to prevent people from getting experience in politics over many years that only makes it harder. The regime is isolated, but so too was Saddam's for some time. I am not the only person here with some familiarity with the region, but there are other points of view than mine, some of them caustic, some even more pessimistic than mine. It is still too early to tell what will happen.

[hippifried]

hippie yah weak hippy shit grow some balls man.do you want a bunch of rag heads living next to you if you do you are fucking nuts never help the dirty scum

Thanks for verifying my statement about you & mindless hatred.

I don't give a shit who lives next door. Right now I'm surrounded by people who look swarthy & speak a foreign language. It's not a problem & never has been. Not anywhere. You're just another pussy who's scared of his own shadow. I'm not impressed by any of your bogus gumbah tough guy bullshit at all. Boo! You're tryin' to tell me to grow a pair? Go slink back under your rock & hide some more. You're the only one who's pissin' your pants scared of somebody else & cryin' about it.

[russtafa]

Thanks for verifying my statement about you & mindless hatred.

I don't give a shit who lives next door. Right now I'm surrounded by people who look swarthy & speak a foreign language. It's not a problem & never has been. Not anywhere. You're just another pussy who's scared of his own shadow. I'm not impressed by any of your bogus gumbah tough guy bullshit at all. Boo! You're tryin' to tell me to grow a pair? Go slink back under your rock & hide some more. You're the only one who's pissin' your pants scared of somebody else & cryin' about it.

god you really are fucking dumb hippy,my mates have to leave because they force them out .Once a one of their fucking temples go's up that's it=they force you out.they don't want infidels living next to their temples to allah.gee information does not get into that thick fucking head of yours,they will never settle in my area because a lot of houses are owned by jews