What To Do About Syria

[Stavros]

Forgive me, but I'm American (and proud of it). Where's Ukraine now?

I didn't do as well as I thought I might on the capitals of US states and in the one on Middle Eastern states it includes Afghanistan, Uzbekistan etc which are not really in the Middle East.

http://www.sheppardsoftware.com/web_games.htm

http://lizardpoint.com/geography/

[Stavros]

If you believe what you read in some of the papers, this has been a momentous week in the history of the conflict in Syria. This evening the BBC reported on refugees returning to their homes in Homs, where the conflict began in 2011, following a negotiation between the government, the rebels and the Iranians, whereby the rebel fighters have been allowed to leave Homs, while they in turn have released Iranians they were holding hostage. The Iranians claimed therefore to have 'won' and the apparent retreat of the rebels has been presented as a sign that the Syrian government is winning this 'war'.
But what in fact has the government of Bashar al-Asad actually won? The people the BBC spoke to were returning to Homs not to start again, but to collect their belongings, such as they were, and go somewhere else, preferably out of Syria altogether. And while Homs is a major victory for Asad owing to its strategic location, the government does not rule over Syria, which remains a fractured state. And we may as well say in advance because we know that Asad has won the elections planned for the 3rd of June, not least the landslide vote for him in Homs where the mere idea that an election could take place is an obscenity characteristic of this civil war.

Crucially, this is a victory for Iran, and conforms not just the deep relationship between the government, Iran and its proxy militia in Lebanon, but the fact some of us pointed out in 2003, that regime change in Iraq would be a significant boost to Iran's regional aspirations. Commentary, a journal not noted for its sympathy for Middle Eastern political issues unless they serve the interests of Israel, has made the telling point that the primary negotiator in the Homs deal though Iran's ambassador to Syria, has a background not in the diplomatic corps, but the Revolutionary Guard. While this is a telling point Michael Rubin's attempt to suggest the New York Times did not report on this because "to suggest that under Obama’s watch the IRGC is supervising and confirming the defeat of Syrian rebels" sidesteps the nodal point that without George Bush and Tony Blair, Iran might not have been in a position to crow about its 'diplomatic' achievement.

An intriguing prospect now looms -Iran's Republican Guard has set up shop in Syria, a commander in the Republican Guard set panic buttons off when he stated
"Today we fight in Syria for interests such as the Islamic Revolution…” and “Iran has formed a second Hezbollah in Syria.”
So his comments were immediately removed from the public sphere (some hope!). And yet...the Salafi extremists in the north loathe and detest the Iranians, and vice versa -but who has the firepower to crush the other, if it can be done...enter the Russians. Watch this space.

Articles from Commentary, The Economist and the comment by Hussein Hamedani of the Iranian Republican Guardlinked here -

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/20...mits-on-syria/
http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomeg.../05/syrias-war
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/view...volvement.html

[AlexisDVyne]

Solution for Syria..

Get the USA to stay the fuck out of it..

Everyone in the USA needs to hammer this all over the twitter accounts of all the people in office.. I'm talking like 10's of millions of twitter posts..

This is part of the global destabilization campaign of the USA backed Banksters..

They lost the war in Afghanistan and Iraq.. they can't win in Syria or Ukraine either.. When they can't win they destabilize..

I guarantee if you give them more weapons.. those weapons will kill americans one day..

The biggest problem with american sheeple is that they're 99% passive to getting fucked over by their government..

The middle east isn't ruled by democracy.. it never will be.. It takes a powerful man with charisma to unite them under a single banner.. they rule by the gun and so it shall be.. as long as religion divides them this is how it will be..

The american version of democracy is a fucking joke.. There's no normal people in congress.. Just well to do's that have no concept of work or suffering..

Of course they'll just hire Blackwater if they can't send in troops..

[Stavros]

As over a year has passed since this thread was live, a re-cap may be in order as there is, possibly, a new chapter opening in the Syrian conflict -again!, and not for the last time.

Syria is or was a country of 23 million, of whom 7.6 million are now classified by the UN as internally displaced people, while 1 in 4 of every refugee in the world today is Syrian, meaning that overall 43% of the population has been displaced by war in one way or another. Three out of four Syrians live in poverty, and the estimates of the numbers killed range from 220,00 (UN figures) to 320,000 (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights).

The government of Syria continues its aerial and land assault on what it calls 'rebel held areas', where something like 11 or more un-coordinated armed rebel groups are fighting the government, funded or supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the USA, not including Daesh or the Nusrah Front.

For its part, the Syrian government continues to rely on support and direct military assistance from Iran in the east, and Hezbollah in Lebanon in the west. It is the claim that though resilient, the Syrian armed forces are stretched and tired that may explain an apparent increase in Russia's commitment to the Asad regime, with the deployment of materiel and personnel (but not yet ground troops) to an air base north-east of Damascus, while Russia maintains its naval base at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast.

The key point of interest in the last month or so is the claim that the USA has lost its leading influence on regional politics and that the Russians are entering this vacated space. The loss of the USA's influence has been noted first in the failure to mend the broken system in Iraq since the departure of President al-Maliki, a failure that has entrenched Daesh in Iraq with no sign of a Sunni-led attack on it; second is the failure to sponsor an armed rebel group in Syria at a cost of $500 million -a project intended to create a force of 5,000 sent an initial group of 54 into the field who were attacked and routed by an affiliate group of al-Qaeda leaving 4-5 as the only fighters left, though at least 200 are still in training. Third has been the alienation of Saudi Arabia from the Obama Presidency which led the Saudis to visit Moscow and which may lie behind what is being seen as a Russian-sponsored attack on Daesh in Syria (see below). Although fighting a proxy war with Iran, Saudi Arabia is furious with the USA for not doing more to attack both Daesh and Asad in Syria at the level it wants, but much of this comes from the aggressive new monarchy of King Salman and in particular his sock it to 'em Crown Prince Mohammed who has been a driving force in their futile war in the Yemen.

Whether or not Obama has 'abandoned' the Middle East is debatable, given the enduring support for Israel and the continuation of drone strikes in Syria and the Yemen. The criticism from outside is in effect levelled at Congress for not authorising more direct action, but it comes from states who do not need, indeed never seek the authorisation from their people to engage in war.

According to Robert Fisk in today's Independent (28th September 2015), Vladimir Putin may be organising a military campaign to oust Daesh from the ancient town of Palmyra, a campaign that is expected anytime between now and the end of 2015. This is seen as militarily 'doable' hence the build-up of materiel in an air base north-east of Damascus, and if successful -and that is a pretty big IF- would demonstrate that Daesh can be beaten by direct action, while the Russians would be in a strong position (they believe) to protect the Asad family through a diplomatic initiative which would support a 'transition' in Syria, but one that would take years during which Asad would remain head of state. Apparently, Benjamin Netanyahu flew to Moscow where he was told of Russian plans so as not to alarm Israel should Russian jets fly into Israeli air space.

The claim that Russia is in the ascendancy and America in retreat has yet to be played out for real. The Russians are making what to me looks like a huge gamble on Palmyra, if that is what is about to happen, given that predictions in the Middle East are always unreliable.

It sets up a dilemma for either Republican or Democrat Presidential candidate in the next 18 moths, as the situation may change, but as the arguments for or against more involvement in Syria rise and fall. I suspect most Americans cannot see an end-game in Syria that would advantage anyone least of all the USA, and are therefore reluctant to get involved, I believe the same is true of opinion in the UK; but for the USA to hold back to some American foreign policy insiders is a dangerous long term position in a region where the USA needs to maintain a presence, and not just in Israel.

Only one thing is certain: the fighting will continue, with no end in sight, for even if the rebels agree to negotiate with the Asad government, and some have indicated a willingness to do so, Daesh is unlikely at the moment to engage in diplomacy, while the prospect of Turkey creating a buffer-zone in Northern Syria remains an option that in itself could lead to a long drawn out conflict with Syrian Kurds. Or to put it another way, Syria is what the Americans call a cluster-fuck, and best of luck with that!

[buttslinger]

I don't think it's any big secret Obama wants to fight his war in poor black neighborhoods, not the middle east. We should send McCain and his little buddy Lindsey Graham over there with some Jets and a few billion bucks and show ISIS and Putin who calls the shots on this planet.

[Stavros]

[QUOTE=buttslinger;1638772]
I don't think it's any big secret Obama wants to fight his war in poor black neighborhoods, not the middle east.
--What? I don't understand this.

We should send McCain and his little buddy Lindsey Graham over there with some Jets and a few billion bucks and show ISIS and Putin who calls the shots on this planet.
-The US Air Force has been bombing targets in Syria for over a year, what does McCain have to do with it?

[broncofan]

I read your write up two posts ago Stavros and it does portray a clusterfuck. It almost seems there is no course of action in the Syria that can relieve tensions, quiet hostilities, or get rid of either ISIS or Assad (the latter of which is becoming increasingly difficult because the Russians and Iranians want to prop him up as a bulwark against the former).

As you say, it may not be the case of Obama abandoning the Middle East but rather recognizing the U.S has very little power to quell a civil war that is becoming a regional proxy war, and we should be wary of our expenditures as they do not seem to be moving us in a clear direction.

[broncofan]

but for the USA to hold back to some American foreign policy insiders is a dangerous long term position in a region where the USA needs to maintain a presence, and not just in Israel.

But not to hold back would mean figuring something out that is constructive. Killing Daesh members with airstrikes seems to have little downside. Trying to oust Assad or to support rebel groups who are trying to do the same now seems like an enormous liability since it would be directly antagonistic to what the Russians and Iranians are now committed to doing. We don't even know what end game we want except for Daesh to be gone, Assad to be gone, and some semblance of organization in the country. But what action by the U.S gets the country anywhere near that outcome?

[buttslinger]

I don't think it's any big secret Obama wants to fight his war in poor black neighborhoods, not the middle east.
There used to be a saying "No Vietnamese ever called me a nigger"
If you live in a poor black neighborhood you don't want Dick Cheney pouring cash and blood into the sand of Iraq, you want to focus on the problems of this nation first. Build Schools and Hospitals here. Obama's political career started in the poor neighborhoods of Chicago, I really do think he's in this for them. In his Heart.
The US Air Force has been bombing targets in Syria for over a year, what does McCain have to do with it?
You'd have to live over here to know McCain is almost cartoonish when it comes to the Middle East. He wants a military solution to everything. Boots on the ground. Boots up people's asses. McCain's dad was a hot shot general, he grew up a military brat, just like Obama came up as a black man in the United States (kinda)
Hillary comes right from her stint as Secretary of State, and you'll see her take a lot more interest in the Middle East than Obama. If Bush wasn't such a complete imbecile we might have actually WON the second Iraq War. We could have been a stabilizing force. Hillary is much more willing to get in bed with the devil than Obama is. To achieve her goals.

Maybe the Russians will get lost in Afghanistan again. I can't see one good thing than has ever come out of the Middle East for the US, not one thing.

[fred41]

But not to hold back would mean figuring something out that is constructive. Killing Daesh members with airstrikes seems to have little downside. Trying to oust Assad or to support rebel groups who are trying to do the same now seems like an enormous liability since it would be directly antagonistic to what the Russians and Iranians are now committed to doing. We don't even know what end game we want except for Daesh to be gone, Assad to be gone, and some semblance of organization in the country. But what action by the U.S gets the country anywhere near that outcome?

Politics is everything here.
Our air strikes don't seem to have even nearly enough effect...and some of our gaffes, such as the 'red line' fiasco have only made things worse...We're walking a tight rope here...
There's a limit as to what we can do there - it's going to be a nuanced affair...but in that particular area of the globe, I think one of the worst things you can do is to appear weak.
No one likes Putin...but they fear him, and right now, that may be more important than a country that 'says' the right things, but won't help or protect you when you may need them.