What To Do About Syria

[Ben]

[Stavros]

What is the point of this rambling chatter? Climate has shaped farming in the Middle East since the Neolithic revolution, but surely in more recent times the volume of water for farming in Northern Syria has been affected by dams in Turkey, just as the volumes in the south-west have been affected by the competition for scarce water resources with Israel, Lebanon and Jordan. There was a famine in the 1930s and some political agitation accompanied it, although in Syria they didn't need bad harvests to complain about the French mandate, and in Palestine much of the conflict was shaped by the deterioration of relations between Arabs and Jews. That the Syrian government was unable to cope with a crisis in farming should not surprise anyone given the poor record of management the government has had for years; it is a dictatorship, the needs of the people come a distant second to the needs of the elite.

[trish]

Climatology currently is an amalgam of atmospheric physics, geography and statistics. No serious climatologist can point to a specific weather event, a tornado, a hurricane, a forest fire and claim it was the result of global warming. Though one can point to a series of such events as evidence for global warm. It is the same with the conflict in Syria. It is one particular event, and one that at first glance is fairly far removed from global warming. As Stavros points out, there are more probable hypothesis ready at hand that account for the current civil war. Badly managed resources, religious animosities and old tribal disputes. I doubt very much we can with a good scientific conscious point the finger climate change.

This is not to say that climate won't play a huge role in the future of Northern Africa and the Middle East. I mentioned in another thread that I had recently been to Morocco and marveled at the irrigation network that was being developed there. It is snow melt from the mountains that feed that network. Should the snow-caps vanish permanently, there would be no water to irrigate Moroccan crops. I think similar dangers prevail throughout the two regions.

[dderek123]

[Stavros]

Climatology currently is an amalgam of atmospheric physics, geography and statistics. No serious climatologist can point to a specific weather event, a tornado, a hurricane, a forest fire and claim it was the result of global warming. Though one can point to a series of such events as evidence for global warm. It is the same with the conflict in Syria. It is one particular event, and one that at first glance is fairly far removed from global warming. As Stavros points out, there are more probable hypothesis ready at hand that account for the current civil war. Badly managed resources, religious animosities and old tribal disputes. I doubt very much we can with a good scientific conscious point the finger climate change.

This is not to say that climate won't play a huge role in the future of Northern Africa and the Middle East. I mentioned in another thread that I had recently been to Morocco and marveled at the irrigation network that was being developed there. It is snow melt from the mountains that feed that network. Should the snow-caps vanish permanently, there would be no water to irrigate Moroccan crops. I think similar dangers prevail throughout the two regions.

I would agree with this, but add that in the cases of the terraced agriculture practised in Morocco and the Yemen (but which is common in many places in the world, such as China and the northern Philipppines) in recent years it is not just issues around water but terrace management that has put these 'hanging gardens' under strain. Pity as they are great to look at when maintained...
(in order: the Imli Valley in Morocco, and Yemen

[Ben]

A Plea for Caution From Russia
What Putin Has to Say to Americans About Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/op....html?hp&_r=1&

[Ben]

A Plea for Caution From Russia
What Putin Has to Say to Americans About Syria:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/op....html?hp&_r=1&

An accompaniment to the article I posted....

[Ben]

[Ben]

Syria crisis: US and Russia agree chemical weapons deal

Inspectors to be given 'immediate unfettered access' with a 'comprehensive list' of weapons from Damascus within a week, says Kerry

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...l-weapons-deal

[Ben]