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  1. #21
    Silver Poster fred41's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Dino Velvet View Post
    Let's bury it and move on then. I want your input here as much as anyone's. It seems there is much to agree on.
    Unfortunately it seems, at least for the moment, that there is not much to be done (if someone on the board is an expert on the various factions in the Middle East, now is the time to step forward)...Regardless where we stand on military action, I think we can all agree that we're pretty much exhausted when it comes to putting boots on the ground.

    Another problem is - that it's always very difficult to know what faction to get behind and what the outcome will be. Things aren't always what they seem...and sometimes they are.

    For now, everyone's probably going to have to take a "wait and see" attitude. I'm sure there's all kinds of behind the scenes manipulation going on from various intelligence agencies anyway.
    There may come a time to act...but I don't think that time is here yet.

    Diplomacy is all we have right now. More talking doesn't always serve a real purpose...but it does fill the void until a better solution comes up.



  2. #22
    Silver Poster fred41's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    ...I realize I just said a whole lot of nothing.



  3. #23
    Marjorie Taylor Greene Is A Nice Lady Platinum Poster Dino Velvet's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by fred41 View Post
    Unfortunately it seems, at least for the moment, that there is not much to be done (if someone on the board is an expert on the various factions in the Middle East, now is the time to step forward)...Regardless where we stand on military action, I think we can all agree that we're pretty much exhausted when it comes to putting boots on the ground.

    Another problem is - that it's always very difficult to know what faction to get behind and what the outcome will be. Things aren't always what they seem...and sometimes they are.

    For now, everyone's probably going to have to take a "wait and see" attitude. I'm sure there's all kinds of behind the scenes manipulation going on from various intelligence agencies anyway.
    There may come a time to act...but I don't think that time is here yet.

    Diplomacy is all we have right now. More talking doesn't always serve a real purpose...but it does fill the void until a better solution comes up.
    Nice post also.



  4. #24
    Marjorie Taylor Greene Is A Nice Lady Platinum Poster Dino Velvet's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by fred41 View Post
    ...I realize I just said a whole lot of nothing.
    No you didn't. I thought it was perfect. We're all confused.



  5. #25
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Prospero View Post
    it was the inhumane and callous remarks by two very vocal right wingers that prompted my dismay at their lack of compassion.
    Yes compassion without action is useless. But at least its not saying - let them kill each other. They're "just" Muslims.
    fuck the muslim dogs my ancestors bathed in their blood and if i was of military age i would not mind a good bath lol


    live with honour

  6. #26
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    My apologies for the length of this reply.

    The simple answer to Dino's question, What to do is going to depend on who you are.

    I think the worst case scenario is either a conflagration in Syria that creates a refugee crisis that spills over into Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and even the occupied Jawlan (Golan Heights); or a victory for the old order, which doesn't solve anything in the short to medium term.

    Bashar al-Asad is often presented as a mild, decent sort of bloke who never really wanted to be President, his brother Basil was slated for the job before dying in a car accident...but if you didn't know what your father had been doing in Syria since 1963 or what it is the Ba'ath Party believes in and how it operates then having a degree and being a practising opthalmologist suggests a pair of glasses may be required. He might be naive, but he isn't innocent.

    Some will argue that the Ba'ath Party established order in a country which had been fractious and shambolic since the end of French rule in 1946, but this ignores the fact that having seized power in a coup in 1963, there was no order -the Ba’ath party was divided between so-called ideologues and pragmatists –with Hafiz al-Asad representing the Pragmatists who launched a counter-coup against the Ba’ath in 1966 calling their new formation, with characteristic imagination, the Neo-Ba’ath Party. The Christian who had been part responsible for creating this Arab version of National Socialism, Michel Aflaq eventually fled for his life to the more congenial quarters of effective house arrest in Baghdad. Asad spent the next four years mopping up (possibly literally) his opponents, creating a stability of terror not much different from Iraq; where Saddam butchered the Kurds, Asad decimated Hama in 1982, killing thousands and destroying the ancient centre of a once-beautiful city.

    Many of the new leadership in Syria in the 1960s came through the armed forces, who not only failed miserably to deal with Israel in 1967, but lost another chunk of territory –the Jawlan- to add to those Syria has lost since 1918. Asad promoted the Alawite to senior positions in the party and the army, groomed his sons for succession, and treated opponents with maximum force. The same reasoning is used today–if these protests can be contained by the army, over time they will decline, and the Ba’ath can claim victory while promising reforms. Except that the people have heard it all before and are no longer prepared to accept excuses and empty promises.

    If you are Israeli, you watch nervously and just hope trouble doesn’t come your way. Israel’s response to democratic change in the Region has usually been to intervene to crush it, so maybe this paralysis is typical, as in –wait until the elections, then strike. On the one hand Israel benefits from a change of government from the insular Shi’a, Alawite regime in Damascus if it lessens the influence of Iran regionally, particularly if it dries up the transfers of arms and cash to Hezbollah in Lebanon –in the medium to long term this would weaken Hezbollah and offer Israeli the chance to destroy its ‘military infrastructure’. On the other hand it doesn’t benefit if a new government in Damascus is belligerent –nobody benefits from that anyway- or for that matter, conciliatory –so terrified of peace negotiations are the current bunch of extremists in Jerusalem, that if a new democratic Syria offered to negotiate a peace treaty with a transfer of land and the return of Palestinian refugees living in Syria to their homeland –just two reasonable issues- Israel would find 101 or maybe 1,001 reasons not to talk.

    If you are Turkey the crisis offers another opportunity to prove that the boss is back, as if the current version of Turk is any more welcome in ‘the Syrian provinces’ than the last lot. It offers Turkey an opportunity to round up the Kurds based in Syria whom it claims are feeding terrorism in Turkey; but it could merely inflame the Syrian demand that the Sanjak of Alexandretta, which the atheists called Hatay and seized violently in 1938, be returned to its motherland. No love lost there, nor found, it seems.

    If you are Russia, a key concern is the security of their agreement to let the Russians park their warships (and who knows what else) in the Mediterranean port of Tartus, and the opportunity, diplomatically, to wind up everyone on the Security Council who isn’t Russian or Chinese. The Russians are currently suffering from attention deficit disorder, and Syria is the last significant country in the Middle East in which Russia has a presence. The Russians, like the Chinese (see below) are involved in the Syrian petroleum industry and have emerged as the most likely sponsors of the development of a nuclear power industry in the country, which will of course be used for peaceful purposes to create new energy resources...

    For the Chinese, it’s a case of Follow the Money –with the Chinese economy slowing down the last thing they need is to lose their annual $2bn worth of trade with Syria, although they are also in partnership with Shell and the Syrian state firm that is developing Syria’s relatively modest petroleum resources, so they will be around for some time. They are involved in various attempts to ‘re-build’ the silk road in iron, for example their ambitious plan to build a railway that will link the Mediterranean to Beijing through Syria, Iran, and Central Asia. China, ominously perhaps, declared in 2005 that the age of Chinese passivity in the Middle East is over. However, this does seem to be economic rather than political, as China sees Syria as being on the fringe of the Europe into which Chinese goods flow, and which is thus part of the ‘neighbourhood’ in which Chinese goods are sold. It is therefore not in China’s interests to have their trading relationship disrupted, so for the time being they want the current regime to remain in charge. Nevertheless, if a new regime comes in, such is the power of money the Chinese could retain their growth status in the region (as is also the case with China in Africa). It remains to be seen how successful in the long term any of China’s overseas partnership strategies work.

    If you are France, then like Turkey, you can call on history as some justification to ‘be there’, even if that history is characterised by political failure. It was the silk merchants of Lyon who, amongst others, invested in the textile industry of the Levant in the 19th century, giving France a ‘claim’ on those provinces of the defeated Ottoman Empire where they ended up, via the secret Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916.

    British forces under Allenby had entered Damascus in 1918 to join with the Arab forces under the Hashemite Feisal (and his ‘adviser’ Col TE Lawrence) where the Arabs recognised Feisal as their titular head, but the British under the secret treaty with France had to withdraw, leaving the French military to invade and claim it as their ‘mandate’.
    They started as they intended to continue: General Gouraud resting his boot on the grave of Salah–al-Din in Damascus, and shouting We’re Back! They then proceeded to divide Syria on the basis of confessional/identity groupings –Christian, Alawite, Druzes, Sunni etc. Even the armed forces set up in the mandate, the Troupes Speciales deliberately excluded Sunni muslims, who made up around 65% of the population, thus giving military experience to Alawite, Druzes, Christians, Circassians and other minorities. Syria also took over the Sanjak of Alexandretta in 1923 which the atheists seized through military force in 1936 that neither France nor Britain resisted, calling it Hatay. Syria to this day claims sovereignty of Alexandretta.

    Throughout the Mandate there were uprisings against French rule, a non-stop headache that threatened to turn into a migraine when Syria sided with the Vichy government before the clique was, sort of thrown out by allied forces in 1941. The French remained in Syria, but retained mostly the same people who had run it on behalf of the Vichy regime. These people now believed it was their duty to serve France by acting against the almighty British in the region –this meant the active support of Jewish terrorists in Palestine, mostly through the Damascus-based Bureau Noir, neither the first nor the last example of Syria offering safe haven to terrorists. That France today continues to cling to some faded memories, glorious or inglourious, that it likes the idea that French is –or rather, was- the second language after Arabic of Lebanon and Syria, says more about France than it does about Syria. The French themselves helped to create a divided, fractured country in which religious and national differences were accentuated rather than diluted, for that reason alone it is a pity they can’t acknowledge the mess they played in modern Syria and stay at home, which as yet is not something that can be guaranteed.

    For the USA, the crisis in Syria exposes the weakest position that the USA has been in the region since George H Bush ousted Iraq from Kuwait. All the gains that the President of Charm, Bill Clinton, made in the 1990s were trashed by George W Bush. Had Barack Obama from the outset played tough with Israel, he might have been able to persuade the Arabs that the bias in favour of Israel which began under LBJ is subject to review. However, Obama’s advisers, particularly Rahm Emmanuel and Dennis Ross, tended to suggest the gradualist soft-shoe shuffle as an operational tactic, except that Netanyahu doesn’t dance, just encourages settlers to break the law and treats the President of the USA with contempt. It is important because right now the USA has little or no leverage in the region outside its long-established relations with Saudi Arabia and Jordan (I am assuming King Abdullah gets the monthly thank-you cheques his dad used to rely on. In return, Hussein gave the US raw intelligence on other Arab leaders). Maintaining regional order is the USA’s priority at a time when Israel is threatening to attack Iran. However, there may be some backroom diplomacy going on in which the USA is offering moral support to the opposition in Syria, and, in the long term, vague guarantees about protecting a fledgling democracy in Syria, possibly using Qatar as a conduit for these messages.

    The paradox of Syria is similar to the paradox of Iraq. Two countries with the natural and intellectual resources to be the most successful industrial and agricultural powers in the Middle East. One of them, Iraq, has absolutely nothing to show for 80 years of oil production, while Syria, a country famed for its merchants, its engineers and poets has made business such an ordeal the average Abdul couldn’t make a profit selling falafel outside a football ground. The One Party State, specifically the Ba’ath party, has been a comprehensive disaster for these two countries. Incompetence, corruption, nepotism, discrimination, and despair have been the dominant themes in the country’s life.



    And yet, Syria, Aleppo and Damascus especially, were famous for being liberal outposts in a conservative region. Many middle aged Arabs lost their virginity in the brothels of Damascus to the ladies of Russia, Moldova and the Ukraine if they had the money; or to other Arabs or, cheapest of all, the gypsies. Gay men knew which bath-houses they could go to meet other gay men (the Nour ad-Din Hamman in Old Damascus was a magnet for locals and expats). There is a long tradition of secular humanism in Syria, its intellectuals have tended to be on the left, when they weren't in prison; yet the Muslim Brotherhood has been around for more than six decades and may be the only coherent political force to emerge from this mess. But first, the Ba’ath Party has to go, and how that happens, I do not know.

    As for the almonds and pistachio nuts, ah Syria!


    Last edited by Stavros; 02-12-2012 at 12:09 AM.

  7. #27
    Marjorie Taylor Greene Is A Nice Lady Platinum Poster Dino Velvet's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Stavros View Post
    My apologies for the length of this reply.
    Don't apologize. That post or book took a lot of thought and effort and I appreciate it. Thank you. Dissecting the planet was helpful too.



  8. #28
    onmyknees Platinum Poster onmyknees's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Prospero View Post
    I love how humane all the right wingers here are - while children are being slaughtered. Not a jot of compassion from them. Oh how the world should look forward to President Santorum - a signal that the lunatics really will have taken over the asylum.
    I assume you're referring to me. How about you limeys pony up some more men for the mid east meat grinder ? Ron Paul is right in this respect...Since the beginning of time this region has been slaughtering each other. Why should the US give more blood and treasure to keep the warring factions separate for a few years? You sound like you're still of eligible age......sign your ass up and go off to save some lives in Syria. Chances are you'll come back a few limbs shorter than when you left. You deplore the war in Iraq...but want us to intervene in Syria and Libya? Get a grip, lib.



  9. #29
    Senior Member Platinum Poster Prospero's Avatar
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Did I say anything about intervening in Syria? (and yes we ponyed up plenty of people for Iraq and Afghanistan)


    Last edited by Prospero; 02-12-2012 at 09:33 AM.

  10. #30
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    Default Re: What To Do About Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by onmyknees View Post
    I assume you're referring to me. How about you limeys pony up some more men for the mid east meat grinder ? Ron Paul is right in this respect...Since the beginning of time this region has been slaughtering each other. Why should the US give more blood and treasure to keep the warring factions separate for a few years? You sound like you're still of eligible age......sign your ass up and go off to save some lives in Syria. Chances are you'll come back a few limbs shorter than when you left. You deplore the war in Iraq...but want us to intervene in Syria and Libya? Get a grip, lib.
    Having learned our lesson in Iraq, I don't see direct military intervention as a feasible tactic to bring down the Ba'ath regime and neutralise the armed forces, including the Republican Guard run by Bashar's brother. As with Libya, supplying weapons through Turkey and Jordan to rebels would not be dfficult, but would prolong the violence. A significant portion of the army has to defect to create a new agenda in Syria, for the time being we are stuck with what we have.

    Britain is in a difficult position as the prospect of a deterioration in Syria must be set against the more alarming situation taking place in Argentina and the Falkland Islands/Malvinas.

    Too many young men have been killed or wounded for life in Iraq and Afghanistan, its not like Britain shied away from those war zones; and I don't want see anyone else killed, whoever they are, wherever they are.



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