What To Do About Syria

[Prospero]

BBC Reported that Asad family have already been sending vast amounts of capital out of the country and that offers of a home in Russia have been made should they "choose" to leave.

[Stavros]

Spasiba, Prospero, I hadn't heard that. Can get cold in Syria in the winter, but it doesn't compare to winter in Siberia...guess the ony beach holiday they are going to get will be in Azerbaijan...but let's face it, he can not have been ignorant of what his father had done in Syria, he had the option of refusal when he was asked to go front of house, he has been a major flop and into the bargain has compromised his own and his family's safety. Had he taken greater interest in politics he might have done the right thing.

[Dino Velvet]

http://news.yahoo.com/us-russia-send...170359102.html

US: Russia sending Syria attack helicopters

By BRADLEY KLAPPER | Associated Press – 33 mins ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration said Tuesday that Russia is sending attack helicopters to Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime and warned that the Arab country's 15-month conflict could become even deadlier.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the U.S. was "concerned about the latest information we have that there are attack helicopters on the way from Russia to Syria."
She said the shipment "will escalate the conflict quite dramatically."
Clinton's comments at a public appearance with Israeli President Shimon Peres augured poorly for a peaceful solution to Syria's conflict. Officials from around the world are warning that the violence risks becoming an all-out civil war, with Middle East power brokers from Iran to Turkey possibly being drawn into the fighting.
Diplomatic hopes have rested on Washington and Moscow agreeing on a transition plan that would end the 40-year Assad regime.
But Moscow has consistently rejected the use of outside forces to end the conflict or any international plan to force regime change in Damascus. Despite withering criticism from the West, it insists that any arms it supplies to Syria are not being used to quell anti-government dissent.
With diplomacy at a standstill, the reported shipment of helicopters suggests a dangerous new turn for Syria after more than a year of harsh government crackdowns on mainly peaceful protests and the emergence of an increasingly organized armed insurgency.
There was no immediate reaction from the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Russia and Syria have a longstanding military relationship and Syria hosts Russia's only naval base on the Mediterranean Sea. But in light of the brutal violence, the U.S. has repeatedly demanded that any further deliveries of weaponry be halted. Russian military support in the form of materiel as advanced as attack helicopters would deal a serious blow to efforts to starve the Syrian army of supplies.
Some 13,000 people have died, according to opposition groups, but the U.S. and its allies have been hoping that sanctions on Assad's government and its increased isolation would make it increasingly difficult to carry out military campaigns.
Asked why the Pentagon isn't blocking Russian weapons shipments to Syria, Defense Department officials noted that the administration hasn't declared an arms embargo. Navy Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, accepted the argument that Moscow's resupplying of helicopters enables the regime to kill its own people, but said the key issue is how the Syrians use the materiel.
"Let's not let the Assad regime off the hook here," he told reporters. "The focus really needs to be more on what the Assad regime is doing to its own people, than the cabinets and the closets to which they turn to pull stuff out. It's really about what they're doing with what they've got in their hands."
In recent days, the State Department has decried what it calls "horrific new tactics" by Syrian forces, including helicopters attacks on civilians.
Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Clinton's comments referred specifically to new helicopters that were being sent to Syria, and not already existing Russian-made or Soviet-made supplies being used by Assad's government.
"We have been pushing the Russians for months to break their military ties with the Syrian regime and they haven't done it," she told reporters in Washington. "Instead, they keep reassuring all of us that what they are sending militarily to Syria can't be used against civilians.
"But what are we seeing?" Nuland asked. "We are seeing the Syrian government using helicopters to fire on their own people from the air. So our question remains: How can the Russians conscience their continued military sales to Syria?"
Clinton, as well, warned about a massing of Syrian forces near Aleppo over the last two days, saying such a deployment could be a "red line" for Syria's northern neighbor Turkey "in terms of their strategic and national interests."
"We are watching this very carefully," she said.
___
Associated Press writer Matthew Lee and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and James Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

[Ben]

DANGEROUS GAMES IN SYRIA:

http://ericmargolis.com/2012/06/dang...ames-in-syria/

[Ben]

http://news.yahoo.com/us-russia-send...170359102.html

US: Russia sending Syria attack helicopters

By BRADLEY KLAPPER | Associated Press – 33 mins ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration said Tuesday that Russia is sending attack helicopters to Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime and warned that the Arab country's 15-month conflict could become even deadlier.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the U.S. was "concerned about the latest information we have that there are attack helicopters on the way from Russia to Syria."
She said the shipment "will escalate the conflict quite dramatically."
Clinton's comments at a public appearance with Israeli President Shimon Peres augured poorly for a peaceful solution to Syria's conflict. Officials from around the world are warning that the violence risks becoming an all-out civil war, with Middle East power brokers from Iran to Turkey possibly being drawn into the fighting.
Diplomatic hopes have rested on Washington and Moscow agreeing on a transition plan that would end the 40-year Assad regime.
But Moscow has consistently rejected the use of outside forces to end the conflict or any international plan to force regime change in Damascus. Despite withering criticism from the West, it insists that any arms it supplies to Syria are not being used to quell anti-government dissent.
With diplomacy at a standstill, the reported shipment of helicopters suggests a dangerous new turn for Syria after more than a year of harsh government crackdowns on mainly peaceful protests and the emergence of an increasingly organized armed insurgency.
There was no immediate reaction from the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Russia and Syria have a longstanding military relationship and Syria hosts Russia's only naval base on the Mediterranean Sea. But in light of the brutal violence, the U.S. has repeatedly demanded that any further deliveries of weaponry be halted. Russian military support in the form of materiel as advanced as attack helicopters would deal a serious blow to efforts to starve the Syrian army of supplies.
Some 13,000 people have died, according to opposition groups, but the U.S. and its allies have been hoping that sanctions on Assad's government and its increased isolation would make it increasingly difficult to carry out military campaigns.
Asked why the Pentagon isn't blocking Russian weapons shipments to Syria, Defense Department officials noted that the administration hasn't declared an arms embargo. Navy Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, accepted the argument that Moscow's resupplying of helicopters enables the regime to kill its own people, but said the key issue is how the Syrians use the materiel.
"Let's not let the Assad regime off the hook here," he told reporters. "The focus really needs to be more on what the Assad regime is doing to its own people, than the cabinets and the closets to which they turn to pull stuff out. It's really about what they're doing with what they've got in their hands."
In recent days, the State Department has decried what it calls "horrific new tactics" by Syrian forces, including helicopters attacks on civilians.
Spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Clinton's comments referred specifically to new helicopters that were being sent to Syria, and not already existing Russian-made or Soviet-made supplies being used by Assad's government.
"We have been pushing the Russians for months to break their military ties with the Syrian regime and they haven't done it," she told reporters in Washington. "Instead, they keep reassuring all of us that what they are sending militarily to Syria can't be used against civilians.
"But what are we seeing?" Nuland asked. "We are seeing the Syrian government using helicopters to fire on their own people from the air. So our question remains: How can the Russians conscience their continued military sales to Syria?"
Clinton, as well, warned about a massing of Syrian forces near Aleppo over the last two days, saying such a deployment could be a "red line" for Syria's northern neighbor Turkey "in terms of their strategic and national interests."
"We are watching this very carefully," she said.
___
Associated Press writer Matthew Lee and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and James Heintz in Moscow contributed to this report.

Most States jump on board when selling weapons.
When there's a profit to be made, well, making money trumps human rights. It's the way of the world:

US Weapons Sold To Human Rights Violators/Undemocratic Nations:

http://www.asiantribune.com/news/200...cratic-nations

Canadian Military Sales to Israel:

[Dino Velvet]

With the death of Assad's brother-in-law and the others, what next?

http://news.yahoo.com/first-word-syr...40.html?_esi=1

First word from Syria's Assad emerges after attack

By BEN HUBBARD | Associated Press – 10 mins ago


BEIRUT (AP) — Bashar Assad attended the swearing-in of his new defense minister Thursday, Syrian state TV said, the first word of the president since an audacious rebel attack the day before struck at the heart of his regime and killed three senior officials.
Government forces struck back against rebels with attack helicopters and shelling in a fifth straight day of clashes in Damascus. The inability of the military to control the clashes in the capital against lightly armed rebel forces and the deadly bombing of a high-level security meeting a day earlier made Assad's hold on power look increasingly tenuous.
The whereabouts of Assad, his wife and their three young children have been a mystery since the attack that killed his brother-in-law and his defense minister. Assad does not appear in public frequently, and his absence was notable following such a serious blow his inner circle.
The state TV announcement appeared aimed at sending the message that Assad is alive, well and still firmly in charge. It said Assad wished the new defense minister good luck but it did not say where the swearing-in took place. Nor did it show any photos or video of the ceremony, as it usually would.
Thousands of Syrians streamed across the Syrian border into Lebanon, fleeing as fighting in the capital entered its fifth straight day, witnesses said. Residents near the Masnaa crossing point — about 25 miles (40 kilometers) from Damascus — said hundreds of private cars as well as taxis and buses were ferrying people across.
Wednesday's rebel bomb attack struck the harshest blow yet to Assad's regime. The White House said it showed Assad was "losing control" of Syria.
Syrian TV confirmed the deaths of Defense Minister Dawoud Rajha, 65, a former army general and the most senior government official to be killed in the rebels' battle to oust Assad; Gen. Assef Shawkat, 62, the deputy defense minister who is married to Assad's elder sister, Bushra, and is one of the most feared figures in the inner circle; and Hassan Turkmani, 77, a former defense minister who died of his wounds in the hospital.
Also wounded were Interior Minister Mohammed Shaar and Maj. Gen. Hisham Ikhtiar, who heads the National Security Department. State TV said both were in stable condition.
Rebels claimed responsibility, saying they targeted the room where the top government security officials in charge of crushing the revolt were meeting.
Maj. Gen. Robert Mood, the Norwegian head of nearly 300 unarmed U.N. observers in Syria, condemned the violence and encouraged a diplomatic solution, which appears increasingly out of reach.
"It pains me to say, but we are not on the track for peace in Syria," Mood said in Damascus.
Hours later, China and Russia vetoed a new U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria's crisis — reflecting divisions between them and the West on who is responsible for Syria's crisis and how to stop it.
The resolution would have imposed non-military sanctions against Assad's government if it didn't withdraw troops and heavy weapons from populated areas within 10 days. It was tied to Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which could eventually allow the use of force to end the conflict.
Russia and China have long opposed any moves that put the blame exclusively on Damascus or could pave the way for foreign military intervention in Syria.
The 11-2 vote, with two abstentions, leaves in limbo the future of the 300-person U.N. monitoring team in Syria, whose mandate expires Friday.
The latest fighting in Damascus, government forces fired heavy machine guns and mortars in battles with rebels in a number of neighborhoods in the capital, the Britain-based activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
Adding to the confusion, Syria's state-run TV warned citizens that gunmen were disguising themselves in military uniforms to carry out attacks.
"Gunmen are wearing Republican Guard uniforms in the neighborhoods of Tadamon, Midan, Qaa and Nahr Aisha, proving that they are planning attacks and crimes," SANA said.
Many residents were fleeing Damascus' Mezzeh neighborhood after troops surrounded it and posted snipers on rooftops while exchanging gunfire with opposition forces.
The Observatory, which relies on a network of activists inside Syria, said rebels damaged one helicopter and disabled three military vehicles.
Rebels fired rocket-propelled grenades at a police station in the Jdeidet Artouz area, killing at least five officers, the group said.
Activist claims could not be independently verified. The Syrian government bars most media from working independently in the country.
The unarmed observers were authorized for 90 days to monitor a cease-fire and implementation of Kofi Annan's six-point peace plan, but the truce never took hold and the monitors have found themselves largely locked down because of the persistent violence.
Mood said the observers "will become relevant when the political process takes off."
Syria's 16-month crisis began with protests inspired by the Arab Spring wave of revolutions, but it has evolved into a civil war, with rebels fighting to topple Assad.
Activists say more than 17,000 people have been killed since the uprising began in March 2011, most of them civilians. The Syrian government says more than 4,000 security officers have been killed. It does not given numbers of civilian dead.
___
Associated Press writers Edith M. Lederer and John Heilprin contributed reporting from the United Nations.

[Stavros]

I am not sure if the bombing in Damascus marks a tipping point and that from here on in Syria is in a state of civil war; I think that right now the Russians are the key to what they would call 'containment', with the hope that more diplomacy and dialogue will draw back from violence.

There is some evidence that the military are not in total control, rebels have been seen manning roadblocks in the suburbs of Damascus but it isn't clear if these were 24-hour barricades or shows of bravado -certainly right now the opposition doesn't have the firepower or manpower to take on the army.

It is conceivable that the bombings in Damascus were an inside job, a Russian-backed attempt to remove the Asad family from the state and replace it with a congenial military government as happened in Egypt between the removal of Mubarak and the elections this year. Russia a) wants to protect its only reliable ally in the Middle East and the naval facility at Tartous; and b) stick one to the USA and its allies who want to force change on Syria regardless of the consequences. Moreover, the Russians are in conflict with Iran who are backing Asad which is another reason to get rid of the family's hold on power.

Complicating this is the wider conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the deterioration of the current government in Israel which has all but collapsed following Kadima's removal of support for Netanyahu -thus, containment now is a response to the fear that an unwinnable war is breaking out in Syria which will drag in various factions in Syria itself, and involve interested parties in Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel -throw in all of the sectarian issues you can think of and as one might say in exasperation: sort that lot out! Unfortunately, the comparison with the civil war in Lebanon may be apt; 100,00+ dead, sectarian parties aided and abetted by all-comers in the region and outside it, and ultimately no structural change to the politics.

This paper from Brandeis offers a balanced view of the options, suggesting diplomacy is still the key one:
http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/public.../meb/MEB64.pdf

The Council on Foreign Relations offers these profiles of who matters in the Syrian regime, including two of the people who were killed in the bombing:
http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-leaders/p9085

Finally a brief but interesting assessment from the Irish Times yesterday
http://campus.ie/news/national-news/...ol-in-syria-us

[Dino Velvet]

I am not sure if the bombing in Damascus marks a tipping point and that from here on in Syria is in a state of civil war; I think that right now the Russians are the key to what they would call 'containment', with the hope that more diplomacy and dialogue will draw back from violence.

There is some evidence that the military are not in total control, rebels have been seen manning roadblocks in the suburbs of Damascus but it isn't clear if these were 24-hour barricades or shows of bravado -certainly right now the opposition doesn't have the firepower or manpower to take on the army.

It is conceivable that the bombings in Damascus were an inside job, a Russian-backed attempt to remove the Asad family from the state and replace it with a congenial military government as happened in Egypt between the removal of Mubarak and the elections this year. Russia a) wants to protect its only reliable ally in the Middle East and the naval facility at Tartous; and b) stick one to the USA and its allies who want to force change on Syria regardless of the consequences. Moreover, the Russians are in conflict with Iran who are backing Asad which is another reason to get rid of the family's hold on power.

Complicating this is the wider conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the deterioration of the current government in Israel which has all but collapsed following Kadima's removal of support for Netanyahu -thus, containment now is a response to the fear that an unwinnable war is breaking out in Syria which will drag in various factions in Syria itself, and involve interested parties in Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon and Israel -throw in all of the sectarian issues you can think of and as one might say in exasperation: sort that lot out! Unfortunately, the comparison with the civil war in Lebanon may be apt; 100,00+ dead, sectarian parties aided and abetted by all-comers in the region and outside it, and ultimately no structural change to the politics.

This paper from Brandeis offers a balanced view of the options, suggesting diplomacy is still the key one:
http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/public.../meb/MEB64.pdf

The Council on Foreign Relations offers these profiles of who matters in the Syrian regime, including two of the people who were killed in the bombing:
http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-leaders/p9085

Finally a brief but interesting assessment from the Irish Times yesterday
http://campus.ie/news/national-news/...ol-in-syria-us

Nice post. Thanks.

[Stavros]

While many eyes have been fixed on the Olympic Games in London, the situation in Syria has become precarious to say the least. The only existing vehicle for a negotiated settlement, the Annan Plan has ended, while the battle for Aleppo has raged with no conclusion so far. The defection of the Prime Minister Riad al-Hijab has been seen as a further weakening of a regime but not a body blow as Hijab was not a crucial member of the ruling elite. He is from the Hauran on the border with Jordan in the South, but has decamped to Qatar (no surprise there).

The current dangers are posed by the increasing support that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are providing for the 'mainstream' Sunni rebels, aided surreptitiously it is claimed by the USA who one assumes also have 'special forces' in the country; while Iran is using the kidnapping of 'Pilgrims' -some say they are Republican Guards who were sent to advise the Alawite 'Shabiha' militia- to offer its support for Asad and threaten the Americans who they think are pulling all the strings. The Salafi extremists based in the north-east at Deir at-Zor have been joined by foreign Jihadis, usually grouped under the 'al-Qaeda' moniker but its hard to know for sure who is organsing them, but their presence is causing problems because they are not welcome in Syria. I am not sure what the Russians are doing, perhaps since the end of the Annan Plan they have been re-considering their position.

If the Russians believe they can make a difference, the removal of Asad and his replacement as a 'unifying' Prime Minister with an ally of Riad Hijab, the much-respected former Foreign Minister Farouk al-Shara'a, backed by a re-structured military could be an option. The army and the air force appear to have held together in spite of some defections, not enough to weaken them fatally, although there are reports that the military is low on supplies.

If 'Egyptian Rules' are followed, the theory goes, the Army would lose its Alawite elite, gain a Sunni elite, and not lose their links to the economy; the Asad family would leave the country, presumably for either Iran or Russia; a negotiated settlement with the various factions among the rebels would lead to a transitional government pending elections, and the Russians as the prime movers would retain their status as best friend and keep their naval base in Tartous. If the Russians believe this might work, it might be better to bring the US in on the deal to make it look more diplomatically balanced, but as this is hypothetical I guess I am a dreamer on this one.

Against this, however, the King of Jordan has claimed that Asad might abandon Damascus, and try and revive the Alawite State based in Latakia and Tartous on the coast that the French created when they took on the Mandate in 1921. The French initially divided the country into five separate states when they took control by force: if history returns to this bleak scenario (and there are Syrians who think Lebanon is just one part of Syria and should not be a separate state), Syria could implodes into sectarian enclaves, with the Kurds in the north posing a major problem for Turkey which, in addition to its attempt to deal with refugees fears a deepening militarisation of a sensitive area which impacts on Turkey itself.

Although it has not been part of politics for a long time, the Ottoman Sanjak of Alexandretta (geographically the envrions of contemporary Iskenderun) which Turkey annexed in 1938 is still theoreticallly claimed to be part of Syria. On paper the opportunity for mischief-making and decades of civil war should not be ruled out. For that matter, Ibn Saud in 1925, the last time his warrior 'Brothers' (the famed Ikhwan) invaded TransJordan, he laid claim to the whole of the Arab Middle East including what is now Israel...one wonders what ambitions the Saudis really have these days.

Is it too late for the Saudis and Qatar on one side, and Iran and Russia on the other to draw back, de-escalate and back a major US/Russian push for negotiations that would end the Asad era? I just can't see these people at the moment doing so, but what I can't figure out is what these outsiders think the end-game looks like in Syria. Yes, chronic divisions amongst Syrian Muslims, and dangerous tensions with the non-Muslim and secular communities won't make any post-Asad transition smoother, but an Egyptian-style solution for the short-to-medium term looks better than the alternative, which is civil war. Surely someone in the Obama administration must see this unfolding? I think the operative word is Help!

If anyone else has views on this please express them, I sometimes think I am deluded to think that the players in this dirty game have had enough and want to end it with something approaching a more peaceful solution.

[Dino Velvet]

Thanks for the update, Stavros. Very thorough covering all the bases.