What To Do About Syria

[Dino Velvet]

Violence spills over into Lebanon. http://news.yahoo.com/seven-killed-s...162518337.html

Nine killed in Syria-linked clashes in Lebanon

By Nazih Siddiq | Reuters – 1 hr 20 mins ago


TRIPOLI, Lebanon (Reuters) - Clashes erupted between supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Lebanon's northern port city of Tripoli on Saturday, killing nine people and wounding 42, residents and a doctor said.
A Reuters journalist said the two sides fired machineguns and rocket-propelled grenades at each other and that the army moved into the area with armored vehicles in an attempt to quell the violence but did not open fire.
Gunmen from the Jabal Mohsen district, home to the minority Alawite sect - the same offshoot of Shi'ite Islam to which Assad belongs - have fought on-off skirmishes over the past few weeks with the Sunni Muslim residents of the Bab al-Tabbaneh area.
Saturday's death toll is the highest in a single day in Tripoli, raising fears that Syria's unrest could spill over into its smaller neighbor.
Lebanon's National News Agency said there was "shelling across both areas heard every five minutes, and snipers targeting civilians".
Residents said those killed included civilians caught in the crossfire and that a Lebanese soldier was among the wounded.
The neighborhoods have long-standing grievances separate from the Syrian conflict but the Sunni-led uprising has led to strife among Lebanon's divided population, especially in majority Sunni Tripoli, 70 km (43 miles) north of Beirut.
International peace envoy Kofi Annan said on Saturday that Syria was slipping into all-out war and that the entire region would suffer if the international community did not step up pressure on Assad.
"Let me appeal to all of you to engage earnestly and seriously with all other stakeholders, mindful that if regional and international divisions play out in Syria, the Syrian people and the region - your region - will pay the price," Annan told a meeting of Arab League member countries.
(Additional reporting by Regan Doherty in Doha; Writing by Oliver Holmes; Editing by Pravin Char)

[Dino Velvet]

http://news.yahoo.com/un-team-sees-m...210405702.html

UN team sees massacre site in Syrian village

By DIAA HADID and ZEINA KARAM | Associated Press – 2 hrs 36 mins ago


BEIRUT (AP) — U.N. observers could smell the stench of burned corpses Friday and saw body parts scattered around a Syrian farming hamlet that was the site of a massacre this week in which nearly 80 men, women and children were reported slain. The scene held evidence of a "horrific crime," a U.N. spokeswoman said.
The observers were finally able to get inside the deserted village of Mazraat al-Qubair after being blocked by government troops and residents, and coming under small arms fire Thursday, a day after the slayings were first reported.
In central Damascus, rebels brazenly battled government security forces in the heart of the capital Friday for the first time, witnesses said, and explosions echoed for hours. Government artillery repeatedly pounded the central city of Homs and troops tried to storm it from three sides.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with international envoy Kofi Annan in Washington to discuss how to salvage his faltering plan to end 15 months of bloodshed in Syria. Western nations blame President Bashar Assad for the violent crackdown on anti-government protests that grew out of the Arab Spring.
The U.N. team was the first independent group to arrive in Mazraat al-Qubair, a village of about 160 people in central Hama province. Opposition activists and Syrian government officials blamed each other for the killings and differed about the number of dead.
Activists said that up to 78 people, including women and children, were shot, hacked and burned to death, saying pro-government militiamen known as "shabiha" were responsible. A government statement on the state-run news agency SANA said "an armed terrorist group" killed nine women and children before Hama authorities were called and killed the attackers.
Sausan Ghosheh, spokeswoman for the U.N. observers, said residents' accounts of the mass killing were "conflicting," and that they needed to cross check the names of the missing and dead with those supplied by nearby villagers. Mazraat al-Qubair itself was "empty of the local inhabitants," she said.
"You can smell the burnt smell of the dead bodies," Ghosheh said. "You could also see body parts in and around the village."
The U.N. supervision mission released a statement later Friday saying that armored vehicle tracks were visible in the area and some homes had been damaged by rockets and grenades. Inside some of the houses, blood was visible across the walls and the floors, the statement said.
Ghosheh said she saw two homes damaged by shells and bullets. She spoke of burned bodies found in a house, but did not elaborate and was not clear whether the U.N. team saw them.
She told the BBC: "We can say that there was definitely a horrific crime that was committed. The scale is still not clear to me."
A BBC correspondent traveling with the U.N. observers described the hamlet as an "appalling scene" of burned-out houses and gore.
"There are pieces of human flesh lying around the room, there is a big pile of congealed blood in the corner, there's a tablecloth that still has the pieces of someone's brain attached to the side of it," said the correspondent, Paul Danahar.
"They killed the people, they killed the livestock, they left nothing in the village alive," he added.
The U.N. observers also visited a cemetery where some of the dead were buried, according to an activist in Mazraat al-Qubair.
Activists said the Sunni hamlet is surrounded by Alawite villages. Alawites are an offshoot of Shiite Islam and Assad is a member of the sect, while the opposition is dominated by Sunnis.
The United States condemned Assad over the killings, saying he has "doubled down on his brutality and duplicity."
The violence followed another mass killing last month in a string of villages known as Houla, where 100 people including many women and children were also shot and stabbed to death. The opposition and the regime blamed each other for the Houla massacre.
In April, the U.N. said more than 9,000 people have been killed since the crisis began in March 2011, but it has been unable to update its estimate since and the daily bloodshed has continued in past weeks. Activists put the number of dead at about 13,000.
Before her meeting with Annan, Clinton said they would look at "how to engender greater response by the government of Syria to the six-point plan that he has put forth."
Annan's plan calls for an end to violence followed by a political transition. Although Assad agreed to it, the violence has continued unabated with reports of brutal massacres against innocents.
Annan allowed that some people "say the plan is definitely dead." He asked rhetorically whether the problem is the plan or its implementation.
"If it's implementation, how do we get action on that? And if it's the plan, what other options do we have?" he said.
U.N. diplomats say Annan is proposing that world powers and key regional players, including Iran, come up with a new strategy to end the conflict.
In Damascus, government troops clashed with defectors from the Free Syrian Army in the Kfar Souseh district in some of the worst fighting yet in the capital. The clashes were a clear sign that the ragtag rebel group has succeeded in taking its fight into the regime's base of power.
"I've been hearing shooting and explosions for hours now and can see smoke rising from the area," a witness who spoke on condition of anonymity for security concerns told The Associated Press.
On Thursday night, armed rebels took part in a large anti-government rally in the same district, witnesses said, in a rare and bold public appearance by the fighters in the capital. Friday's fighting began when the rebels attacked a government checkpoint in the morning, according to Rami Abdul-Rahman of the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
"The men are shouting 'God is great,' women are crying," said Omar, a Damascus resident who would not provide his family name for fear of reprisal by Syrian officials. The sound of machine gun fire and blasts could be heard in the background as he spoke by Skype.
A resident of the Damascus neighborhood of Qaboun said the battles began in his area after Syrian forces opened fire on an evening demonstration, killing a young man he identified as Mahmoud Said. Following that, gunmen hiding in the area began clashing with security forces. Nobody was sure how many people were killed, because they could not leave their houses, said the resident, who asked not to be identified because he feared government reprisal.
The Observatory and another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, said clashes also broke out in other Damascus districts. There was no immediate word on civilian casualties but the LCC said three rebels were killed.
In Homs, one of the main battlegrounds of the uprising, the offensive against Khaldiyeh appeared to be a new push by regime forces to retake the enclave that has been held by rebels for months.
Pro-Assad troops overran the opposition-held neighborhood of Baba Amr on March 1 after a government siege killed hundreds of people — many of them civilians — in Syria's third-largest city.
Activist Tarek Badrakhan said regime troops were trying to advance on Khaldiyeh from three sides, battling with rebels trying to stop them.
"This is the worst shelling we've had since the start of the revolution," he said via Skype. A shell could be heard exploding in the background as he spoke.
Shells were hitting the neighborhood at a rate of five to 10 a minute, said a statement by the Observatory.
There was no immediate word on casualties from Khaldiyeh, whose original 80,000 inhabitants have mostly fled.
Amateur videos showed missiles exploding into balls of flames in the crowded concrete jumble of homes, with thundering crashes that sent up plumes of heavy gray smoke. The videos suggested the attack began at dawn as birds chirped and roosters crowed. In one video, the missiles came in rapid succession, four exploding in less than a minute.
Homs has been one of the hardest-hit regions in Syria since the uprising began.
The government news agency reported troops on the eastern Lebanese border area clashed with rebels, who they said were trying to smuggle in three pick-up trucks full of weapons. The agency said they destroyed one car, but two sped back into Lebanon
In several locations across Syria on Friday, troops fired tear gas and live ammunition in an attempt to disperse thousands of anti-government protesters, activists said, including the northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo, the southern region of Daraa and in the suburbs of Damascus. Several people were reported killed, but the numbers were not immediately clear.
In Geneva, International Committee of the Red Cross spokesman Hicham Hassan said Syria's humanitarian situation was worsening. And Kristalina Georgieva, European commissioner for humanitarian aid, said in Brussels that there are 1 million "vulnerable people who need humanitarian assistance."
"Between 200,000 and 400,000 are internally displaced ... and we have 95,000 refugees in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan primarily," she said.
Also on Friday, the Committee to Protect Journalists said five citizen journalists documenting the unrest in Syria were killed in a two-day period at the end of May.
___
AP writers Frank Jordans in Geneva, Matthew Lee in Washington and Slobodan Lekic in Brussels contributed to this report.

[Prospero]

I wonder if we are tipping towards a new Sunni-Shi'ite conflict which could become a regional war.

[Stavros]

This is a difficult one to call. You could argue that Saudi Arabia has been 'in conflict' with Iran since 1979, in part because its own Shi'a population has never been satisfied with its status in the kingdom and has, on occasion rioted to prove the point; and also because Saudi Arabia as custodian of the Holy Places fears any political movement that challenges its authority: the Shi'a may not be numerically larger, but they live in Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria and obviously Iraq, which gives your theme some credence. The un-resolved issues of Syrian interference in Lebanon don't help that state maintain its delicate balance, but the argument must be -who would be fighting whom, and what for? Iraq at the moment is effectively two states with Iraqi Kurdistan signing oil contracts (with Exxon) which may yet become a flashpoint in Iraq; there is no outcome in sight to Syria which means nobody knows if Asad, his brother, or some military clique is going to hold on to power for another 10 years; and all of it would get much worse -in my opinion- if there was an escalation of the violence, be it sponsored by Iran on one side, or Saudi Arabia and Qatar (on behalf of -? USA?) on the other side.

Or, is this in fact the 'last Hurrah' for the Shi'a moment anyway? Elections in Iran next year will be interesting to watch...

[Dino Velvet]

I wonder if we are tipping towards a new Sunni-Shi'ite conflict which could become a regional war.

This is a difficult one to call. You could argue that Saudi Arabia has been 'in conflict' with Iran since 1979, in part because its own Shi'a population has never been satisfied with its status in the kingdom and has, on occasion rioted to prove the point; and also because Saudi Arabia as custodian of the Holy Places fears any political movement that challenges its authority: the Shi'a may not be numerically larger, but they live in Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria and obviously Iraq, which gives your theme some credence. The un-resolved issues of Syrian interference in Lebanon don't help that state maintain its delicate balance, but the argument must be -who would be fighting whom, and what for? Iraq at the moment is effectively two states with Iraqi Kurdistan signing oil contracts (with Exxon) which may yet become a flashpoint in Iraq; there is no outcome in sight to Syria which means nobody knows if Asad, his brother, or some military clique is going to hold on to power for another 10 years; and all of it would get much worse -in my opinion- if there was an escalation of the violence, be it sponsored by Iran on one side, or Saudi Arabia and Qatar (on behalf of -? USA?) on the other side.

Or, is this in fact the 'last Hurrah' for the Shi'a moment anyway? Elections in Iran next year will be interesting to watch...

Thanks fellas. Regional War, huh?

[sensuelle]

I think at the moment the only solution that could stop the violance in Syria is if some people from within the regime say enough is enough and get rid of Assad, and then proces toward elections etc.I personally dont see that happing soon as there are many factors involved(mostly religion and the different ethnic communities within Syria) and also the problem is that the opposition is not really one front with a clear leader.So i think we will just have to wait until Assad overplays his own hand before anything will happen i guess.

[Stavros]

You are right, sensuelle, but even if Asad and his brother were to go, would the remaining elites be willing to introduce a democratic transition to a system which might divest them of their assets? This is the problem in Egypt, but if it stopped the violence such a move would at least be a credible alternative, even if it meant a return to the divided politics of the 1940s and 1950s -although that in itself doesn't prevent democracy from taking root. France in the 1950s used to have a new government every 6 months because it was so unstable. If Saudi Arabia is seen as the 'dark knight' in the region it is because its founder, Abdul Aziz ibn Saud wanted to replace the Ottoman and then the British and French empires as 'Caliph' in all of the Arab lands the Ottomans lost in 1918, indeed he tried to annexe TransJordan twice before giving up but I am not sure if politically the ambition ever died. It may be today that SA is paranoid about democracy because it would mean this hugely successful family firm would have to, as it were, go public. I don't believe a single US President has ever called for democratic government in Saudi Arabia.

[Dino Velvet]

I don't believe a single US President has ever called for democratic government in Saudi Arabia.

I'm not sure but you might be right about that. A few Congressman might have whined a little but that was probably just for the TV. Arab Spring not coming soon there, I bet.

Do you think the powers that be in Syria have a contingency plan just in case something happens with Bashar? He seems like the type of guy who might look for the exit sign but he might be pretty well dug in with less good options for him every day. Mubarak's future doesn't look very bright and Moammar didn't have one. I can't see how Iran would allow losing their influence their either.

Do you think Kofi Annan will make much of a difference?

[maddygirl]

Maybe I'm in the minority but I think we the U.S should just stay out of it... it's sad what's happening but we can't be policing the world, it's not our job.. its caused us enough trouble as it is.

[Stavros]

I'm not sure but you might be right about that. A few Congressman might have whined a little but that was probably just for the TV. Arab Spring not coming soon there, I bet.

Do you think the powers that be in Syria have a contingency plan just in case something happens with Bashar? He seems like the type of guy who might look for the exit sign but he might be pretty well dug in with less good options for him every day. Mubarak's future doesn't look very bright and Moammar didn't have one. I can't see how Iran would allow losing their influence their either.

Do you think Kofi Annan will make much of a difference?

I am not sure but I think part of the Asad family's problem is that they don't have many friends, Asad studied in London and his wife Asma was born in the UK to a Syrian family but after what has happened in the past year I doubt he could come here -which reinforces the siege mentality that this regime is in. Moreover, the elevation of the Alawite sect under his father, and the role that they -allegedly- play in the Shabiha militia suggests that the Alawite have made their own future precarious; in effect they could end up being the marginalised minority they were before the Asad family's ascendance.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov yesterday said that Asad is not essential to a solution but that the Syrians must decide:

"If the Syrians agree [on Assad's departure] between each other, we will only be happy to support such a solution," Lavrov said. "But … it is unacceptable to impose the conditions for such a dialogue from outside."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...t-assad-lavrov