The Political Year

[Stavros]

As we approach the end of another year, there is no doubt that, as usual, the Middle East -broadly defined to include North Africa- has dominated the headlines; but I wonder if something happened this year which may not have received the same degree of attention, but whose long term impact may be profound.

Your thoughts on this and your highlights of the year are welcome.

Setting aside the perennials -Middle East, Afghanistan, the crisis in the EuroZone, I think the following will be of long term significance:

1) Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's release from house arrest and the gradual relaxation of political debate in Burma. I don't think this is window dressing by the military regime, but a sign that the country will begin a process of change. Burma is a complex country with long-running guerrilla wars (Karen, San) compounding the military government's iron grip on the rest of the country, but I feel all the parties involved are weary of these battles and want to become part of the economic growth that has propelled China to the top rank of nations. As the Chinese economy begins to slow down, it will look at investment opportunities and new markets in the region, and Burma looks well placed to become a new economic zone, if not in 2012. 2011 may be the year it began to change.

2) Argentina and the Falklands/Malvinas. I don't know how to read the intentions of Argentina at the moment, but the pressure to do something to counter the exploration for oil in the Malvinas Basin that currently favours Uk-based corporations could become a top priority, so the decision this week of south American states to ban ships flying the Falklands flag to dock in their ports could be the first shot in a potential conflict. The obvious solution is to reach an agreement on the maritime boundary in the context of exploration and production -something similar to the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundaries Act of 1999 which prevents Scotland from claiming sovereignty over the North Sea's oil and gas fields -or rather which enabes Scotland and England to share them. It is a difficult one because for Argentina, there is no boundary...is another war on the cards?

[robertlouis]

I admit it's parochial, but I believe that Cameron's hissyfit over the non-issue of the Treaty of 27 will rapidly accelerate the breakup of the United Kingdom. Alex Salmond, who is arguably the cutest political operator in these islands, has - in my view rightly - made the point that Cameron made his decision without any reference to the devolved bodies in Edinburgh and Cardiff, and in the former case, if Cameron's decision were to actively militate against Scotland's national interests, Salmond might well take the opportunity created by yet another antiTory outcry north of the border to bring forward a referendum on independence. The English automatic kneejerk negativism towards anything European is largely not shared by the Scots, whose communitarian approach is much more in tune with mainstream European social democratic models than the vestigial Thatcherism which continues to besmirch much of English political thinking.

To put it another way, if the Tories take the UK out of the EU, I will be packing my bags and heading home to an independent Scotland.

[Prospero]

I agree with Stavros and with Robert louis. Add my my voice by wondering

1. if the present turbulence in Russia over the recent and forthcoming elections signals the beginning of a shift there - against the Putin era. Last night President Medvedev signalled a "liberalisation" ith ore openess and the setting up a non regime controlled public broadcasting station.

2. With themideast continuing to be troubling - especially with yesterday's bombings in Iraq - is there a the possibility of a wider Shia-Sunni conflict. Looks that way.

3. And Pakistan remains a place to watch with the deepening rupture in US-Pakistan relations and the President reportedly to stay in Dubai for an extended period because of illness.

4. North Korea. Could the regime wobble at this pivotal point?

[russtafa]

JULIAR Gillard saying their will be no carbon tax

[Stavros]

Yes to all of the above, with the rider that Canada withdrawing from the Kyoto treaty is either a one-off or could mark the end of the current attempt to reach global agreement on measures to combat climate change.

There was an article in The Independent which aired the potential of Scotland to become part of Scandinavia in the event of the 'break-up of Britain'...
http://www.independent.co.uk/hei-fi/...internalSearch

Military coup in Pakistan? Possible, the govt is, as usual, incompetent; change in Russia? Possible but I wonder if there is an effective opposition that could win elections.

All fascinating issues.