politics in Egypt

[thombergeron]

You're really that confident to say that a theocracy won't arise? Egypt's population is almost entirely muslim, many of them very devout. I would predict that in any reformation or revolution of the present government, it will result in greater power and voice for the muslim religion, although hopefully not a full blown theocracy.

This continues to be a source of confusion for many Westerners, but most Muslims, even most devout Muslims, do not wish to live in a theocracy. One out of every five people on earth is Muslim; very few of them currently live in a theocracy, and many that do would really prefer not to.

[Ben]

[Ben]

History's Longest Imprisoned Blogger, Kareem Amer, is Free

By Marshall Kirkpatrick / November 16, 2010 10:06 AM

The man believed to have been imprisoned longer than anyone else in the world for the contents of a blog, Egyptian Abdul Kareem Nabeel Suleiman, has been released after four years and 10 days of detention, his supporters have announced on their blog.
Suleiman, who blogged under the name Kareem Amer, was sentenced in 2006 to four years of jail for insulting religion and the leadership of Egypt on his blog. He was critical of, among other things, Egypt's treatment of women and of its Coptic Christian minority. Supporters report that during those four years, Amer was tortured, beaten, attacked by other prisoners, disowned by his family and had his books, letters and personal effects taken away. His case is of international interest not just because of his humanity, but because of the political conflict between authoritarian states and a new world of freely self-published bloggers who would challenge them with new Web technology.

Due to the political importance of his case, Amer gained an international support movement that kept him in the online news throughout his time in prison. ReadWriteWeb has covered his case at least five times, most recently and in depth when his sentence expired, but he remained in state custody for an additional 10 days.
Amer's supporters say he is declining interviews while recovering from his detention.

Though Kareem Amer was the longest-imprisoned blogger known, detained for most of the history of this young phenomenon called Social Media, he was not alone.
A report by international media watchdog organization Reporters Sans Frontières last year found that there were 151 people in prison around the world because of the contents of their blogs in 2009, a nearly three-fold increase over 2008.
Iranian cultural satire blogger Omid Reza Misayafi is believed to be the only blogger killed in prison to date. He was sentenced in 2008 to 30 months in prison for "insulting Islamic Republic Leaders" but died under mysterious and allegedly abusive circumstances after just six months of detention.
With brave bloggers in mind who are free, imprisoned and deceased around the world, we leave you with the moving short video Iran: A Nation of Bloggers, about just one of many places where disruptive social media and authoritarian tradition clash, and where the stakes are at their highest.

[Ben]

And according to VP Biden, well, Mubarak is NOT a dictator -- ha! ha! And I quote: "Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is not a dictator and shouldn't step aside in the face of mounting protests against his nearly 30-year rule."

[Ben]

Q&A interview with Professor Stephen Zunes, professor of politics and chair of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco:

Q: What can you tell us about how widespread the support is for the uprising among Egyptians?
A: One thing that's struck me about this uprising is its breadth — old-young, men-women, Christian-Muslim, secular-poor and middle class; factory workers and intellectuals. Though the initial instigators were young and middle class, it's one of the broadest based uprisings of its kind I’ve ever seen. If there were a free election held today I'd be surprised if Mubarak got more that 20-23 percent of the vote. Of course, he wouldn't hold free elections and all the elections held in the past have been rigged.
Q: I know this situation has a very long history, but can you tell us what has spurred this to happen now?
A: Frustration with the Mubarak regime has been growing, but no doubt the democratic revolution in Tunisia played a role. Indeed, recent decades have seen scores of unarmed insurrections against corrupt autocratic regimes from the Philippines to Poland, from Chile to Serbia, from Maldives to Mali.
Q: What are the basics that the people are demanding? That is, for what are they struggling/fighting?
A: Freedom of speech, press, assembly, free/honest elections, etc. which they believe is impossible as long as Mubarak (or his son) is in power. Also, greater economic justice; poverty and inequality are growing. Liberalizing the economy while not liberalizing the political system is a dangerous combination.
Q: Given that this is happening in more than one Arab country, what do you think the likelihood is that this could spread to Saudi Arabia? Is the House of Fahd any better positioned to deal with an uprising than Mubarak?
A: Saudi Arabia, unfortunately, will probably be among the last to change. As an oil-rich … state, they can buy off a lot of potential opponents. In addition, the power of the hard-line Wahabbi clerics may make pro-democracy elements nervous about challenging the monarchy for fear at what might replace it.
Q: What role do you believe the Muslim Brotherhood is playing in the Egypt protests and does that organization enjoy broad support among the Egyptian people?
A: The demonstrations are led primarily by young people who are not only anti-regime, but find the aging leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood as out of touch with their day-to-day realities as the government. There seems little support for the more extreme Islamists either. The Brotherhood's refusal to endorse the protests until after they started and were clearly gaining support was clearly opportunistic and doesn't help their standing.
Q: Does Iran play any part in this ... behind the scenes?
A: Iran has very little influence in Egyptian politics.
Q: With the U.S. support of Mubarak, how can they expect anyone that replaces him to be friendly to the U.S. It seems like the U.S. once again has provided an excuse to an Islamic state to hate them.
A: While I don't expect a post-Mubarak government to be fanatically anti-American or dominated by Islamist radicals, there is understandable disappointment among most Egyptians at the longstanding support from Washington of the Mubarak dictatorship. A democratic Egyptian government would likely be somewhat more independent from the U.S. and the IMF, but not overtly hostile.
Q: Is there popular support for Mohamed ElBaradei? What aspirations does he have?
A: ElBaradei would be a likely consensus leader, supported by both secular nationalists and moderate Islamists. Has strong democratic credentials.
Q: How do these protests affect other moderate governments in the region, such as Jordan?
A: I think authoritarian governments throughout the region, whether they are pro- or anti-American, are probably pretty nervous right now.
Q: Does Mubarak still enjoy support from the military, or is their allegiance leaning towards the protesters?
A: The military leadership still supports him, but there are serious questions as to whether ordinary soldiers will be willing to suppress the protesters.
Q: Do you think people in Egypt will be able to accomplish anything out of this protest? Even with the strict government they have?
A: Egypt will never be the same. The apathy and feelings of powerlessness have been shattered. Even if Mubarak survives the current round of protests, Egyptian civil society has been re-awakened. His days in power are numbered. It's a reminder that if democracy comes to the Arab world, it will come not from foreign intervention or sanctimonious statements from Western capitals, but from the people themselves.
Q: Is the safety of Israel at risk if the government is toppled, and what would happen to the world's oil supply's ability to make it thru the Suez Canal?
A: The people of Egypt want social and economic justice and would not be inclined to get in a war with Israel or risk a confrontation with the international community around oil supplies. These protests are about domestic issues, about freedom and justice. While there is certainly broad sympathy for the Palestinian cause, they have more pressing matters at home to deal with.
Q: Is this an uprising more rooted in oppression from the government rather than a religious ideology?
A: There are Christians and Muslims and secularists all out of the street. This is very much about resisting government oppression and its mismanagement of the economy than about religion.
Q: How do the riots affect us here in the U.S.? Why should we care?
A: The United States has been the major economic, political and military supporter of the Mubarak regime for nearly 30 years. This has hurt our standing. Much of the anti-Americanism in the Middle East is not because they "hate our freedom" but because our policies have, unfortunately, been less about freedom than about supporting dictators like Mubarak. This needs to change if we are to have any credibility in that part of the world.
Q: Do you think that regional unrest will prompt U.S. military action? Will it prompt any economic sanctions or other penalties?
A: Not likely. Military force paradoxically doesn't work very well against hundreds of thousands of unarmed demonstrators. In addition, I would assume that the Obama administration would recognize it would put us on the wrong side of history. U.S. intervention will probably be limited to the diplomatic front. So far there have been no threats of suspending U.S. military aid.
Q: What sort of time frame are you expecting in terms of transition in Egypt? And, what other power players might try to muscle in?
A: No telling. Obviously lots of domestic and foreign elements will try to take advantage of the situation, but it will be the Egyptian people on the streets who will ultimately determine the nation's future.
Q: Would whatever type of regime that arises from this keep similar relations that Israel and Egypt currently have, or could this lead to a step back?
A: I would guess that a democratic Egyptian government might be more outspokenly critical of certain Israeli policies, but I don't think there's any realistic chance of breaking off the peace treaty or anything like that.
Q: Are we seeing signs of broader support from the Egyptian middle class or the intellectual community and how important is that to the success of the protesters in this situation?
A: Yes, there is growing opposition across class lines. And, even if the protests are initially suppressed, I think it will embolden Egyptian intellectuals to be more outspoken in their opposition.
Q: Is this similar to the protests in Iran, i.e., the government will slowly squash it?
A: The Egyptian government could, like the Iranian regime in 2009, successfully crush the rebellion this round. However, the Egyptian regime has a much smaller social base than the Iranian regime, and is therefore far more vulnerable in the longer term.
Q: How will this affect control of the Suez canal - thus the price of oil?
A: It shouldn't affect the normal operations of the Suez Canal, unless the canal operators joined a general strike. Even in that case, the impact on oil prices would be minimal, since most supertankers are too big for the canal anyway.
Q: If Hosni Mubarak steps down, how likely is it that his son, Gamal Mubarak, (or perhaps his other son) would take over and be accepted by the people? ... Do the Egyptian citizens view the sons any differently than the father? (Editor's note: BBC News reported Saturday that the elder Mubarak's sons, Gamal and Alaa, had flown to London; Egypt's state-run television denied the report.)
A: Gamal is disliked even more than his father. I was one of those predicting an uprising like we are seeing now if he was named president. Even in Hosni Mubarak can hold on for awhile longer, I think it's safe to say at this point that Gamal's career is finished.
Q: Why is Gamal more disliked than his father?
A: Gamal is seen as a spoiled brat and not particularly competent. In addition, the 1952 revolution was to overthrow a monarchy and establish a republic, so hereditary succession is seen as something of an anachronism.
Q: How will this unrest affect U.S. citizens who want to travel to Egypt?
A: I don't think they have to worry about their personal safety in terms of being attacked for being Americans. However, normal travel could be disrupted because of demonstrations, etc.
Q: What is the "best case" scenario for this demonstration?
A: Best case scenario in my view would be a speedy transition to an interim government under ElBaradei or similar credible figure with free elections some time in the next few months.
Q: Is it probable that Mubarak will agree to at least some of the protesters' demands? And, are the protesters likely to accept?
A: Mubarak may try to accede to some of the protesters demands, but at this point he may need to be thinking more in terms of sooner or later going into exile. His credibility is shot at this point.
Q: What role are women playing in the protests? Are Muslim and Christian women taking to the streets?
A: Women have not been as visible as during the Tunisian protests, but they have been present, particularly during the more nonviolent protests during daylight. And there have been both Christians and Muslims, both with headscarves and without.
Q: Do you see a warmer peace with Israel if Mubarak falls? I would describe the current peace as a cold peace.
A: At least while the current right-wing Israeli government is in power, it will more likely continue to be a cold peace. Things could warm up with a more moderate Israeli leadership, however.
Q: What do you think the U.S. response should be?
A: I have been disappointed in the Obama administration's failure to more openly challenge the Mubarak regime and more openly support the pro-democracy movement. I would advocate, for example, for a suspension of U.S. military aid.
Q: Does the wave of activism in north Africa prompt the populations of Iran and Syria to respond in a similar manner? Are there benevolent monarchies in the region that have earned a viable relationship with their citizenry, thereby mitigating the populist uprisings?
A: Civil society is weaker in Syria and their secret police are stronger, but there is still a lot of discontent with Assad. I do expect to see another round of protests in Iran at some point, not because of North Africa, but because the grievances with the Iranian regime are as strong as ever. Kuwait, in part because of major nonviolent protests a few years ago, has opened up politically. The monarchy is still ultimately in charge, but the parliament has some real power as well.

[russtafa]

Has any one considered the significance of the Egyptian goverment pulling the plug on the internet

[Ben]

[russtafa]

A goverment in any country can turn off that country's internet in a emergency situation

[Stavros]

On UK tv tonight Ahdaf Soueif took the view that first Mubarak cut the internet -the crowds stayed put; they played safe with the tanks on the streets -the crowds stayed put; they flew F-16 fighter jets overhead -the crowd stayed put; Mubarak said he would leave office in September -the crowds stayed put: each one a test to see who can take it most -I think Mubarak and his cronies were genuinely thrown by this as they are used to being obeyed -so they sent in their paid agent provocateurs -NPD party apparatchiks, convicts let out of prison, unemployed given a few pounds and half a chicken (half!) to thrown stones, petrol bombs etc -basically cause chaos to justify a military response etc etc.

right now its not looking good, I think it must come down to the Army and whether or not a largely conscript army will obey its fat cat officers or rebel -which means not just a change in the political leadership but also the military who, after all claim they created the modern Republic -Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak all came from the military...

[Ben]

Noam Chomsky being interviewed by Amy Goodman: