politics in Egypt

[russtafa]

Is Egypt in for a revolution?

[hippifried]

I don't think so & I hope not. I don't know how much pressure it'll take for Mubarak to step down, but it's probably time. A shootin' revolution would destabilize the entire region even more than it already is, & the chances of another theocracy as a result are a bit too high for me to be comfortable.

[russtafa]

i thought Americans would be more extroverted in the 21st century to be aware of whats going on in the world but i guess i'm wrong.

[Etranger]

Too many years of corruption and indifference by ruling powers is coming to an end, is it a revolution? Not in the conventional sense, not in the way that overthrowing King Farouk in the 1950s launched Egypt onto a more modern path, but right now with the possible exception of el-Baradei who is there in Egypt who can stand for elections and win a genuinely popular vote?

Egyptians used to be the construction workers of the region -like the Irish in Britain- but they lost out to Indians in the Gulf and were thrown out of Iraq in 1990 many without being paid. Egyptian teachers used to man the schools across the Arab world but now each country has its own; and the oil and gas industry is only labour intensive in its early phase, so there are severe pressures on jobs in a country with 80 million.

Reasons to be positive:
Egypt is strategically located with the Suez Canal, it links the Mediterranean area with Africa and the Middle East, it has a long and occasionally magnificent history, it is a popular place for tourists and has excellent and cheap facilities, with generally friendly people many of whom speK English. There is a growing portfolio of mostly gas fields in the Gulf of Suez, the Western Desert and for the future the offshore in the Mediterranean: money earners as well as a source of cheap energy for the population. A relatively strong agricultural base offers locally sourced food.

Reasons to be cautious:
The elites who did well out of Mubarak are unlikely to decamp to places like Saudi Arabia or the Gulf, they have strong links to the security services, but are alienated from the majority; the primary drivers in North Africa right now are young relatively secular university graduates and unskilled workers, but the attractions of easy power for the Muslim radicals could create a problematic scenario in which neither secularists nor Muslim fanatics can capture overall power -Egypt could be unstable for some time.

Up to now Mubarak traded pro-US policies for cash, Egypt's debt has been written off at least twice in the last 30 years, but if the new people are anti-Israel, they will lose US funding while Israeli intervention is likely to be greater than it is already and more aggressive -its not Tunisia after all.

Fascinating times...

[thombergeron]

I doubt there'll be a full-on revolution. The state is just too strong and too pervasive. But I think Mubarak will definitely be driven to implement some democratic reforms.

Important to keep in mind that these protests are being organized by democratic secularists, not by Islamic fundamentalists. The Muslim Brotherhood has been devastated by the dictatorship over the past 20 years. So we're not looking at a choice between dictatorship and theocracy here.

[Etranger]

Yes the question right now is if Mubarak is going to run away...

[Odelay]

The Muslim Brotherhood has been devastated by the dictatorship over the past 20 years. So we're not looking at a choice between dictatorship and theocracy here.

You're really that confident to say that a theocracy won't arise? Egypt's population is almost entirely muslim, many of them very devout. I would predict that in any reformation or revolution of the present government, it will result in greater power and voice for the muslim religion, although hopefully not a full blown theocracy.

[bte]

Well don't know if anyone has heard in this thread, but Egypt has completely disconnected their Internet. The only thing that has Internet right now is the Egyptian stock market. Seems like to me that they are trying to silence everyone in their contry from reporting whats going on in their country. They did block sites like Facebook and Twitter, but decided to just disconnect from the Internet entirely. So in response to the OP question, I believe Egypt is heading for a revolution.

[Ben]

It seems to be happening all over. First Tunisia. Now: Morocco, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan....
Anyway, here's an article about the protest movements in the Middle East. So, it isn't just Egypt --

Factbox: Protests in North Africa and Middle East

Reuters January 25, 2011

Protests have spread in a number of North African and Middle Eastern countries, and continue in Tunisia following the downfall of president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

* EGYPT:
— In Egypt, lawyer Mohamed Farouk Hassan, 52, shouted slogans against rising prices before setting himself alight on Jan. 18 and a second man tried to follow suit. A day earlier another Egyptian poured gasoline over himself and lit it after protesting against poor living conditions. His injuries were described as slight.
— Three more Egyptians set themselves alight on Jan. 21, one was seriously injured. The two other workers, from firms in Egypt's textile sector, an industry from which many factory workers have led the most violent demonstrations against the government in recent years, also poured fuel over themselves and set themselves ablaze.
— Thousands of Egyptians demanded on Tuesday an end to President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule and clashed with police, in unprecedented protests inspired by the downfall of Tunisia's president.
— Egyptians face the same complaints that drove Tunisians to the street: surging food prices, poverty, unemployment and authoritarian rule that normally smothers public protests quickly and often brutally.
— Tuesday's demonstrations also took place in Ismailia and Suez, both cities east of Cairo, and in other Nile Delta cities like Mansoura and Tanta. A protest also occured in north Sinai.

* TUNISIA: — Protests that brought down President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali on Jan. 14 erupted after Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire on Dec. 17 because police seized his grocery cart. — Bouazizi died of his burns, becoming a martyr to crowds of students and the unemployed protesting against poverty and unemployment in Tunisia.
— Protests have continued since Ben Ali's departure despite the formation of a new government. The government said 78 people were killed in demonstrations since December. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights put the number at 117, including 70 shot dead.
— Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi said on Friday he intended to retire from politics after organizing elections but this has not stemmed the protests.
— Police fired teargas canisters on Jan. 24 to disperse protesters in central Tunis as pressure grew for the removal of government ministers linked to the ousted president Ben Ali.
— Teachers held a protest outside the Ministry of Education in Tunis and state television said some schools were closed.

* ALGERIA: — Several Algerian towns including the capital experienced days of rioting earlier this month, provoked by a jump in food prices. Two people died and hundreds were injured during clashes between rioters and police, officials said. At least four men set themselves on fire in provincial towns in the past week.
— To calm the situation, Algeria has decided to cut the cost of some foodstuffs and to increase by 18 per cent the amount of soft wheat it supplies to the local market each month.

* JORDAN:
— Hundreds of protesters chanted slogans against Prime Minister Samir al-Rifai in the southern city of Karak on Jan. 14.
— The peaceful protest was held despite hastily announced government measures to curb commodity and fuel prices. Similar demonstrations were held in the capital Amman and the northern town of Irbid, and about 200 people protested in the Dhiban, south of Amman.
— Jordan announced a $225 million package of cuts in the prices of some types of fuel and of staple products including sugar and rice.

* SUDAN:
— Students held protests in the universities of Khartoum and Gezira against proposed cuts in subsidies in petroleum products and sugar, a strategic commodity in Sudan.
— The protests spread to the towns of Wad Medani and Hassa Heissa in Gezira state, where students clashed with police who used tear gas to subdue crowds.
— Prices of other goods have already risen due to a surge in global food prices and a devaluation of the local currency.

* OMAN:
— About 200 people protested this month in Muscat demanding the government to stop corruption and address rising prices in a protest that appeared to have been inspired by the toppling of the Tunisian president.
* MAURITANIA:
— In Mauritania's capital Nouakchott, Yacoub Ould Dahoud staged a self-immolation protest on Jan. 17 against alleged government mistreatment of his tribe.

* SAUDI ARABIA:
— A Saudi man in his sixties died after setting fire to himself on Jan. 21 in underdeveloped Jizan province bordering Yemen. It was not clear whether his act was inspired by other cases of self-immolation in the region.

* MEASURES TAKEN ELSEWHERE:

— Libya has abolished taxes and custom duties on locally-produced and imported food products in response to a global surge in food prices, Oea newspaper reported.
— The measures include wheat by-products, rice, vegetable oil, sugar and infant formula, Oea said.
— Morocco introduced a compensation system for importers of milling soft wheat aimed at keeping prices stable after a surge in grain prices.

Reuters NA....

[Ben]

Quoting from an article written by Robert Fisk: "... you don't need to read the papers to see what has gone wrong. The filth and the slums, the open sewers and the corruption of every government official, the bulging prisons, the laughable elections, the whole vast, sclerotic edifice of power has at last brought Egyptians on to their streets."