The Iranian Election

[tstv_lover]

Extract from Stratfor's commentary on the Iranian election

"Perhaps the greatest factor in Ahmadinejad’s favor is that Mousavi spoke for the better districts of Tehran — something akin to running a U.S. presidential election as a spokesman for Georgetown and the Upper East Side. Such a base will get you hammered, and Mousavi got hammered. Fraud or not, Ahmadinejad won and he won significantly. That he won is not the mystery; the mystery is why others thought he wouldn’t win."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090...ranian_reality

I've no idea whether any type of fraud was involved, and I really haven't seen or heard anything of substance. It does strike me as bizarre that we're fed TV images of groups shouting "We want freedom" - not in Farsi but in English. Makes for good TV pictures but it is really representative of the Iranian people?

What's your take on the election and media coverage?

[hippifried]

Iran is not a small country, & this was a nationwide election. Just like here, rural areas tend to be more conservative. All I've seen is what's happening in Tehran. Iran can be dealt with, regardless of who the President is. We talked to the Soviets. We talked to the red Chinese. There's no reason we can't talk to the Iranians. How long are we supposed to hold a grudge?

As for the protests: That's their affair. I can't think of another country in the Muslim world where this could be going on. It kind of flies in the face of the story we've been told about Iran being a totalitarian dictatorship. This might turn into something, but my gut feeling is that it'll blow over. Ahmadinejad has a 2 term limit, so this is it for him. We'll see what happens over the next 4 years.

[TommyFoxtrot]

Extract from Stratfor's commentary on the Iranian election

"Perhaps the greatest factor in Ahmadinejad’s favor is that Mousavi spoke for the better districts of Tehran — something akin to running a U.S. presidential election as a spokesman for Georgetown and the Upper East Side. Such a base will get you hammered, and Mousavi got hammered. Fraud or not, Ahmadinejad won and he won significantly. That he won is not the mystery; the mystery is why others thought he wouldn’t win."

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090...ranian_reality

I've no idea whether any type of fraud was involved, and I really haven't seen or heard anything of substance. It does strike me as bizarre that we're fed TV images of groups shouting "We want freedom" - not in Farsi but in English. Makes for good TV pictures but it is really representative of the Iranian people?

What's your take on the election and media coverage?

They're doing that for the international media.

I agree with Stratfor's interpretation. We're seeing these huge demonstrations in Tehran which were he had overwhelming support. The rural areas and the poor voted for Ahmedinejad. I do find it strange that Mousavi lost the Azeri vote though. One commentator said it would be like Obama losing the black vote. Not quite, but significant.

[TommyFoxtrot]

Iran is not a small country, & this was a nationwide election. Just like here, rural areas tend to be more conservative. All I've seen is what's happening in Tehran. Iran can be dealt with, regardless of who the President is. We talked to the Soviets. We talked to the red Chinese. There's no reason we can't talk to the Iranians. How long are we supposed to hold a grudge?

As for the protests: That's their affair. I can't think of another country in the Muslim world where this could be going on. It kind of flies in the face of the story we've been told about Iran being a totalitarian dictatorship. This might turn into something, but my gut feeling is that it'll blow over. Ahmadinejad has a 2 term limit, so this is it for him. We'll see what happens over the next 4 years.

I think you're correct about this, we can and should talk with the Iranians. But one of the difficulties with all this is that we talked with the Russians from a position of strength. The USSR was on a long road to decline and China opened up to us after the border dispute and split with Russia.

Iran at least temporarily seems to be gaining traction. I think Obama MAY be undermining Ahmedinejad, but really what do the Mullahs get out of dealing with the U.S.? Perhaps they need the U.S. as a threat in order to fight reforms. I also think the U.S. hurts reformers in Iran when it gets out that we put a lot of money into it's opposition groups. Folks there say "You're just an agent of the Americans" and I'm sure that silences many reform minded folks.

It's all a pity. But also, I think Obama is wrong when he puts all the blame on the U.S. It appears that Muslims never want to accept any wrongdoing. I've seen a bunch of these discussions take place, and it always boils down to the U.S. being wrong, and the Muslim world being agrieved.

[BrendaQG]

Iran is not a small country, & this was a nationwide election. Just like here, rural areas tend to be more conservative. All I've seen is what's happening in Tehran. Iran can be dealt with, regardless of who the President is. We talked to the Soviets. We talked to the red Chinese. There's no reason we can't talk to the Iranians. How long are we supposed to hold a grudge?

As for the protests: That's their affair. I can't think of another country in the Muslim world where this could be going on. It kind of flies in the face of the story we've been told about Iran being a totalitarian dictatorship. This might turn into something, but my gut feeling is that it'll blow over. Ahmadinejad has a 2 term limit, so this is it for him. We'll see what happens over the next 4 years.

I think you're correct about this, we can and should talk with the Iranians. But one of the difficulties with all this is that we talked with the Russians from a position of strength. The USSR was on a long road to decline and China opened up to us after the border dispute and split with Russia.

Iran at least temporarily seems to be gaining traction. I think Obama MAY be undermining Ahmedinejad, but really what do the Mullahs get out of dealing with the U.S.? Perhaps they need the U.S. as a threat in order to fight reforms. I also think the U.S. hurts reformers in Iran when it gets out that we put a lot of money into it's opposition groups. Folks there say "You're just an agent of the Americans" and I'm sure that silences many reform minded folks.

It's all a pity. But also, I think Obama is wrong when he puts all the blame on the U.S. It appears that Muslims never want to accept any wrongdoing. I've seen a bunch of these discussions take place, and it always boils down to the U.S. being wrong, and the Muslim world being agrieved.

+1

There are just some people who can't take loosing an election.

[hippifried]

Strength hell. We talked to the Soviets from a position of M.A.D., from the time they tested their first atomic bomb to their collapse. The cold war lasted for 40 years, but we always had an embassy in Moscow, We fought proxy wars against each other all over the world, but we still traded.

We haven't officially talked to Iran since the loonies took over the embassy in '79. 30 years. They released the hostages in January '81, & we still haven't released the Iranian assets that were frozen in '79. Rudullah Khomeini is long dead. There's been almost an entire turnover of the population. Nearly 3/4 of the 70+ million people who live there weren't born till after the Shah was deposed. Who the hell are we pissed off at?

We just don't have enough information onthe political dynamics in Iran. We've been fed a line of bullshit for decades. Their government might be all screwed up, but it's their's. It wasn't imposed on them by foreign powers. Protesters have been marching in the streets for days. Where's the big crackdown? The hard violence & gunfire in the one march was between factions. From what I see, the police are just keeping them separated. We do that here. I don't think we're getting a true story here. Everybody seems to have an agenda, including the press. There's something wrong with the picture I'm seeing. I just can't quite put my finger on it yet.

[tstv_lover]

Strength hell. We talked to the Soviets from a position of M.A.D., from the time they tested their first atomic bomb to their collapse. The cold war lasted for 40 years, but we always had an embassy in Moscow, We fought proxy wars against each other all over the world, but we still traded.

We haven't officially talked to Iran since the loonies took over the embassy in '79. 30 years. They released the hostages in January '81, & we still haven't released the Iranian assets that were frozen in '79. Rudullah Khomeini is long dead. There's been almost an entire turnover of the population. Nearly 3/4 of the 70+ million people who live there weren't born till after the Shah was deposed. Who the hell are we pissed off at?

We just don't have enough information onthe political dynamics in Iran. We've been fed a line of bullshit for decades. Their government might be all screwed up, but it's their's. It wasn't imposed on them by foreign powers. Protesters have been marching in the streets for days. Where's the big crackdown? The hard violence & gunfire in the one march was between factions. From what I see, the police are just keeping them separated. We do that here. I don't think we're getting a true story here. Everybody seems to have an agenda, including the press. There's something wrong with the picture I'm seeing. I just can't quite put my finger on it yet.

Yep, I agree. Credit to Obama though - he's saying exactly the right thing for a US president to say at this time: great concern about violence but not getting involved in siding with Iranian political factions.

So a partial recount will take place - we'll see what happens then.

[2009AD]

Iran's pro-democracy Twitter: http://twitter.com/persiankiwi

[tstv_lover]

Looks like the $400 million approved last year for destabilizing the religious leaders in Iran might be paying dividends.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0..._n_109818.html

Of course, might just be a coincidence.

[BrendaQG]

So far theis is the only sceptical and balanced news report I have seen.