The Congressional Budget Office on the Obama Porculus Plan.

[BrendaQG]

This is the reason Barrack sounded nervous because he knew the real news about his plan would come out and he needed to be sure he could "control the message" as they say in DC speak.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/96xx/doc9619/Gregg.pdf This is a link to a letter from The Congressional Budget Office to Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire. Who was appointed to US Secretary of Commerce by President Obama.

This is at the bottom of page 4.

In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic effects, the Senate legislation would reduce output slightly in the long run, CBO estimates, as would other similar proposals. The principal channel for this effect is that the legislation would result in an increase in government debt. To the extent that people hold their wealth as government bonds rather than in a form that can be used to finance private investment, the increased debt would tend to reduce the stock of productive capital. In economic parlance, the debt would “crowd out” private investment.

In plain language government debt would be a lager part of the US economy than any private investment. The letter goes on to forecast shrinking GDP for the next 10 years after 2011.

The letter does note that GDP is not the best measure of the well being of the average person, but consumption is. As well as the fact that neither of these macroeconomic pieces of data reflect other aspects of happiness and well being (IMO $$$$$$$$$$ go a long motherfuckin way to both of those things.)

The CBO is a non partisan organ of congress.

*Darn I intended for this to go to Politics an Religion. :-/

[MrF]

Some other possible outcomes I've read about: 1) Fewer and fewer people (e.g. Chinese govt) will want to buy US debt, so the shortfall can only be made up by printing money, leading to huge inflation; and 2) People may buy the debt and then realize it's too much, causing them to sell their dollars in a panic (perhaps buying Euros or some other currency), leading to a massive devaluation of the dollar.

To some extent these scenarios are already starting to happen. How did we get to this grim state ?

I'm not a big fan of all these bailouts and stimuli, but I'm not sure what else to do except let it all implode and let some competent, responsible companies and banks rise from the dust. We seem to need massive restructuring and changes in culture, e.g. learning to live within our means and tying managerial compensation properly to performance of the company - not just its stock value but how it benefits workers and customers.

[trish]

Here's the solution. We stage a world wide power surge and blackout, frying all the computers at every bank and financial institution on Earth. All data is lost. Nobody knows who owes what to whom. Everyone's savings, stocks, debt and credit (which are just so many bits and bytes anyway) simply vanishes; i.e. we hit the worldwide economic reset button.

[El Nino]

Trish, that same scenario has crossed my mind, as well. LOL Just imagine...

[hippifried]

Call Jessica Alba.

[thx1138]

China is getting nervous: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a_dsDz145J_A

[trish]

Pork refers to spending that’s intended to benefit constituents in return for their political support. The implication in the term “pork” is that political support was the only reason for giving the money; i.e. the constituents demonstrated no real need for the money. So if you’re saying the stimulus bill is pork, then you’re also saying there is no demonstrated need for infrastructure maintenance, school improvement and no real demonstrated need for job growth. Give me a break.

It seems to me most people just label anything pork if they’re not the direct beneficiaries. For them the bad thing about pork is when it’s going to someone else. Federal money going to your state means jobs, infrastructure improvements, support for schools, etc. Federal money going to another state is pork.

[hippifried]

"Porkulous" is a Rushism. A buzz word for dittoheads.

[BrendaQG]

Pork refers to spending that’s intended to benefit constituents in return for their political support. The implication in the term “pork” is that political support was the only reason for giving the money; i.e. the constituents demonstrated no real need for the money. So if you’re saying the stimulus bill is pork, then you’re also saying there is no demonstrated need for infrastructure maintenance, school improvement and no real demonstrated need for job growth. Give me a break.

It seems to me most people just label anything pork if they’re not the direct beneficiaries. For them the bad thing about pork is when it’s going to someone else. Federal money going to your state means jobs, infrastructure improvements, support for schools, etc. Federal money going to another state is pork.

What would you call money for the refurbishment of ATV trails? That's just one example.

If the money was all dedicated just to public works I would be all for it. But the rest of this crap we could really do without for now.

That and it's a report by the Congressional Budget office. All these people do is compute what various policies will do to the economy. Let's just face facts, this bill may not be so great for the economy in the long run. what It will do is give the economy a boost for two years, after this year when it really comes into effect. So the economy will be sorta OK when it's time for the 2012 election. Then the shit hits the fan. But why should Obama give a damm at that point?

[trish]

Personally I'm opposed to allowing ATV's in public parks, but that's another issue. Jobs are jobs. If it puts someone to work to refurbish ATV trails that need maintenance, then put them to work. FDR's three C's was a great success in giving people work during the depression, but not only did it put them to work when the program was over we had a system of parks, camps and trails many of which still survive and are enjoyed today. You know that parks in Illinois have suffered greatly during the past several years. The main road through the State Park in my county is untraversible. I'm all for sending some of the stimulus money to the State and Federal parks, provided its used to generate jobs, and there's something usable for the public good that comes of it.