markets and recession?

[qeuqheeg222]

do ya think the current market will give way to a recession here in america???what if the fed hadnt pumped all that money into the market recently....i love the supposed free market b.s....shit the fed is holdin that shit up by its "bootstraps"that it was supposed to pick itself up by....

[qeuqheeg222]

p.s. is larry kudlow a log cabin republican?i think so and he might want to lay off a bit on those business lunches complete with the three martinis or scotches...

[tsmandy]

I'm not sure when exactly economic catastrophe within the United States becomes a recession. I think more and more people will find themselves unemployed or underemployed, or incarcerated,the gap between rich and poor will widen, wages will continue to stay depressed (minimum wage when adjusted for inflation is lower than it was in the 1960's), health care costs will continue to skyrocket, public infrastructure will continue to crumble, and a few million people will continue to amass obscene fortunes.

The sub-prime woes and market jitters are just one little piece in the jenga tower of the global economy that is always one block away from crashing.

So my vote is, we would already be in a recession if the media reported the news with economic indicators that factored in the bottom %80 of Americans.

[hippifried]

The sky isn't falling. Markets go up & down. All of them.

Contrary to popular myth, the stock market is NOT the economy. The Dow Jones can drop like a rock while the rest of the NYSE goes up at the same time. If you watch the insanity, when the stocks drop, the bond market goes up. Bulls & bears are just a description of the prevailing mindset among brokers at any given time. Whether it goes up or down, somebody's making money. There's stopgaps in place since the depression to keep things from totally collapsing.

When "economists" start coming up with some consensus analysis on what' going on (I don't expect anybody to read the future for even 5 minutes), then I'll start taking them seriously. As it is, I don't think anybody has a clue what causes inflation, recession, boom, bust, or any other economic dynamics. They're all just trying to sell a book or a service to justify that high dollar education.

As far as I'm concerned, the real indicator of economic well being is consumer confidence. That's measured by how much the actual people are actually willing to spend. I fpeople are worried about whether they're going to have a job next week, they don't spend & every segment of the economy suffers. When the public is upbeat, the money flows, & it's the flow that counts. Supply siders can talk saving & investment till the cows come home, but it's consumer spending that actually drives the economy, & it doesn't matter what they're buying. It's all just mindset. Welcome to Peter Pan's world of macro-economics.

We seem to keep on muddling through despite all the attempts of experts, pundits, bureaucrats, & various media doomsayers to derail the process. If you think we're doing great, we are. If you think we're all going to hell in a handbasket, then we are. It's all just a matter of perceptions, & which ones prevail at any given time.

[trish]

i'm not so worried about the markets either...but the falling dollar is worrisome. i pretend to no knowledge on the subject of monetary exchange. the only thing i know is, i won't be going to europe this year.

[hippifried]

but the falling dollar is worrisome...the only thing i know is, i won't be going to europe this year.

See? It's all just perceptions based on personal agenda.

As the dollar falls, foreign tourism may take a hit but American exports go up. Let the Europeans have the trade deficit for a while. It's their turn.

Monitary exchange is just that. A bunch of gamblers sitting around betting on which currency is going to go up or down. I'll see your 11 yen & 6 petro-dollars & raise you 2 euros, 26 pesos & 17 yuan. Currency's become just another commodity. Doesn't matter though, because money's just numbers in a ledger. It was never anything more than a simplification of the barter system, no matter how much the pundits & hoarders would love to deify gold & whatnot.

If you're in a betting mood, Trish, go ahead & go to Europe. Put it all on plastic & hope the dollar falls a little farther before you have to pay it back. That way, it'll look like a bargain.

[tsmandy]

Hmm....

As long as Americans buy more and more hummers the economy is fine.
Of course for all those unemployed, uninsured, underemployed, full time employees earning poverty wages in toxic accident prone industries, imprisoned slave laborers (the largest population in the world); their problem remains their mindset not the brutal realities of a failed economy.

This economic rationale says more about ones position in the world, and accordingly who its proponents think matter, than it does about a sane economic policy.

[Idgaf]

The current Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson is a very,very sharp economic player.
The current Chairman of the Federal reserve Ben Bernanke is more like a young lawyer who wants to become a partner in the firm.
Bernankes' move to "save" the market probably should not have happened but he is inexperienced at the job and could not disassociate himself from the instability.
The market IS going to readjust as the percentage of retiring Babyboomers increases and they begin to divest themselves of assets ,such as houses, they tend to relocate in large numbers from the Northeast to North Carolina and Arizona not Florida nor California.
The political agenda of the Babyboomers is directly responsible for the current market conditions and
the political climate that created it. As a group they outnumber all others and the same group has enjoyed positions of power within all segments of our society but has always been idealistic and not realistic when setting policy.
Such as the policies that have led to the current 'Sub-Prime" problem and it is going to get worse over the next 4-6 years.
The next President will inherit some interesting challenges ,those at the top of the economic scale want to retire and do so safely ,those at the bottom of the scale just want to survive and keep their "sub-prime" mortages and homes ,they did no wrong.
I hope Bernanke is a one term Chairman.
His current "ideas" to make the market predictable and such are insane.
Anyone remember the days of
"Irrational Exuberance" ?

[Quinn]

As the dollar falls, foreign tourism may take a hit but American exports go up. Let the Europeans have the trade deficit for a while. It's their turn..

One of the major problems accompanying the dollar's fall is the increased cost U.S. based multinationals have to pay for their imports – a cost that is invariably passed on to consumers. Bottom line: As the dollar falls, you can expect a substantial increase in inflationary pressure.

Moreover, the fact is that inflation is already understated because of our government's insistence upon using core rather than headline inflationary indicators.

-Quinn

[Idgaf]

The US will not enjoy trade deficit pressures for a very long time and until we have experienced considerable financial hardship.
As was previously mentioned adjusted minimum wage is lower now than in the 1960's.
Do you remember what other items cost then ?
Gas ,Homes ,Food ,Healthcare .......
To raise min. wage is to increase pressure on the problem ,that is the value of our currency.
That problem is linked to some very strained issues politically and it will probably take a catastrophic event before any real change happens.
Something like the economy collapsing.