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  1. #1
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    Default Global Warming on Neptune(GRL)

    Those damn Neptunians ! When will they learn to give up those SUVs !!!!

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    The Space Science Institute in Colorado and the Lowell Observatory, note that measurements of visible light from Neptune have been taken at the Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona since 1950. Obviously, light from Neptune can be related to seasons on the planet, small variations in Neptune’s orbit, the apparent tilt of the axis as viewed from the Earth, the varying distance from Neptune to Earth, and of course, changes in the atmosphere near the Lowell Observatory. Astronomers are clever, they are fully aware of these complications, and they adjust the measurements accordingly.

    As seen in Figure 1, Neptune has been getting brighter since around 1980; furthermore, infrared measurements of the planet since 1980 show that the planet has been warming steadily from 1980 to 2004. As they say on Neptune, global warming has become an inconvenient truth. But with no one to blame, Hammel and Lockwood explored how variations in the output of the Sun might control variations in the brightness of Neptune.

    What would seem so simple statistically is complicated by the degrees of freedom in the various time series which is related to the serial correlation in the data (e.g., next year’s value is highly dependent on this year’s value). Nonetheless, they find that the correlation coefficient between solar irradiance and Neptune’s brightness is near 0.90 (1.00 is perfect). The same relationship is found between the Earth’s temperature anomalies and the solar output. Hammel and Lockwood note “In other words, the Earth temperature values are as well correlated with solar irradiance (r = 0.89) as they are with Neptune’s blue brightness (|r| > 0.90), assuming a 10-year lag of the Neptune values.” The temporal lag is needed to account for the large mass of Neptune that would require years to adjust to any changes in solar output.

    Hammel and Lockwood conclude that “In summary, if Neptune’s atmosphere is indeed responding to some variation in solar activity in a manner similar to that of the Earth albeit with a temporal lag” then “Neptune may provide an independent (and extraterrestrial) locale for studies of solar effects on planetary atmospheres.”

    Hammel, H. B., and G. W. Lockwood, 2007. Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth’s temperature, Geophysical Research Letters
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    When people abandon the truth, they don’t believe in nothing, they believe in anything.

  2. #2
    Hung Angel Platinum Poster trish's Avatar
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    For those of you who may be interested:

    The AGU publishes quickly reviewed letters to expedite research. The results published in Geophysical Research Letters are understood to be of a tenuous nature. Here is a quote from the website of the AGU:

    Geophysical Research Letters publishes short, concise research letters that present scientific advances that are likely to have immediate influence on the research of other investigators. GRL letters can focus on a specific discipline or apply broadly to the geophysical science community.
    GRL is a Letters journal; limiting manuscript size expedites the review and publication process. A magazine-sized GRL can reach and be of interest to the largest AGU audience. With this goal, the Editorial Board evaluates manuscripts submitted to GRL according to the following criteria:
    • Is it a short, concise research letter?
    • Does it contain important scientific advances?
    • Would it have immediate impact on the research of others?
    GRL has been in publication since 1974. The Editors are adapting GRL to the evolving needs of the Earth science community. GRL Editors are now topical: the subject of the paper determines which Editor handles the review.

    Notice that the letters are reviewed, NOT REFEREED. Just to get an idea sheer number of letters published I post a list below of what appears in the May issue so far. Notice few of these titles suggest Earth’s current climate change is driven solely by variations in the Sun’s energy flux. (Indeed evidence from the Solar Heliospheric Observatory indicates there are no variations that would account for Earth’s recent “warming”)

    Here is the abstract from Hammel and Lockwoods letter:

    H. B. Hammel
    Space Science Institute, Boulder, Colorado, USA

    G. W. Lockwood
    Lowell Observatory, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

    Abstract
    Long-term photometric measurements of Neptune show variations of brightness over half a century. Seasonal change in Neptune's atmosphere may partially explain a general rise in the long-term light curve, but cannot explain its detailed variations. This leads us to consider the possibility of solar-driven changes, i.e., changes incurred by innate solar variability perhaps coupled with changing seasonal insolation. Although correlations between Neptune's brightness and Earth's temperature anomaly—and between Neptune and two models of solar variability—are visually compelling, at this time they are not statistically significant due to the limited degrees of freedom of the various time series. Nevertheless, the striking similarity of the temporal patterns of variation should not be ignored simply because of low formal statistical significance. If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment.
    Received 14 November 2006; accepted 15 March 2007; published 19 April 2007.
    Keywords: Neptune; solar variability; photometric.
    Index Terms: 6255 Planetary Sciences: Solar System Objects: Neptune; 5704 Planetary Sciences: Fluid Planets: Atmospheres (0343, 1060); 1616 Global Change: Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513); 1650 Global Change: Solar variability (7537).

    Please note how tentative they are about their own conclusions. They caution that the correlation they find is not “statistically significant”. Of course any tidbit will arouse the needy, and those whose claim solar activity alone accounts for the Earth’s climate change are in dire need of any evidence they can get.





    Geophysical Research Letters
    published in April 2007:

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    10.1029/2007GL029525
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    10.1029/2006GL027237
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    10.1029/2006GL029150
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    10.1029/2006GL029022
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    Transverse structure of turbulence in a rotating gravity current
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    10.1029/2007GL029521
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2006GL029198
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2007GL029578
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2007GL029252
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2006GL029208
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    10.1029/2007GL029807
    17 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2006GL028847
    13 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
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    10.1029/2006GL028001
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    10.1029/2006GL027907
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    10.1029/2007GL029431
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    10.1029/2007GL029594
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    Lorenz, R. D.; Wood, C. A.; Lunine, J. I.; Wall, S. D.; Lopes, R. M.; Mitchell, K. L.; Paganelli, F.; Anderson, Y. Z.; Wye, L.; Tsai, C.; Zebker, H.; Stofan, E. R.
    Titan's young surface: Initial impact crater survey by Cassini RADAR and model comparison
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07204
    10.1029/2006GL028971
    12 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Vimont, Daniel J.; Kossin, James P.
    The Atlantic Meridional Mode and hurricane activity
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07709
    10.1029/2007GL029683
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Bitz, C. M.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Cheng, W.; Barsugli, J. J.
    Rates of thermohaline recovery from freshwater pulses in modern, Last Glacial Maximum, and greenhouse warming climates
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07708
    10.1029/2006GL029237
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Stegmann, Sylvia; Strasser, Michael; Anselmetti, Flavio; Kopf, Achim
    Geotechnical in situ characterization of subaquatic slopes: The role of pore pressure transients versus frictional strength in landslide initiation
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07607
    10.1029/2006GL029122
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    Hu, Chuanmin; Muller-Karger, Frank E.
    Response of sea surface properties to Hurricane Dennis in the eastern Gulf of Mexico
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07606
    10.1029/2006GL028935
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Ajo-Franklin, J. B.; Geller, J. T.; Harris, J. M.
    Ultrasonic properties of granular media saturated with DNAPL/water mixtures
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07404
    10.1029/2006GL029200
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Berne, A.; Uijlenhoet, R.
    Path-averaged rainfall estimation using microwave links: Uncertainty due to spatial rainfall variability
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07403
    10.1029/2007GL029409
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Watanabe, Tomoko; Hiramatsu, Yoshihiro; Obara, Kazushige
    Scaling relationship between the duration and the amplitude of non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07305
    10.1029/2007GL029391
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Chaput, J. A.; Bostock, M. G.
    Seismic interferometry using non-volcanic tremor in Cascadia
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07304
    10.1029/2007GL028987
    11 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Palo, S. E.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.
    An eastward propagating two-day wave: Evidence for nonlinear planetary wave and tidal coupling in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07807
    10.1029/2006GL027728
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Ren, Ji; Liu, Hongyan; Yin, Yi; He, Siyuan
    Drivers of greening trend across vertically distributed biomes in temperate arid Asia
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07707
    10.1029/2007GL029435
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Costa, Marcos H.; Yanagi, Silvia N. M.; Souza, Paulo J. O. P.; Ribeiro, Aristides; Rocha, Edson J. P.
    Climate change in Amazonia caused by soybean cropland expansion, as compared to caused by pastureland expansion
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07706
    10.1029/2007GL029271
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Babanin, Alexander; Chalikov, Dmitry; Young, Ian; Savelyev, Ivan
    Predicting the breaking onset of surface water waves
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07605
    10.1029/2006GL029135
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.
    Stress before and after the 2002 Denali fault earthquake
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07303
    10.1029/2007GL029189
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Huba, J. D.; Joyce, G.
    Equatorial spread F modeling: Multiple bifurcated structures, secondary instabilities, large density ‘bite-outs,’ and supersonic flows
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07105
    10.1029/2006GL028519
    10 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Papayannis, A.; Zhang, H. Q.; Amiridis, V.; Ju, H. B.; Chourdakis, G.; Georgoussis, G.; Pérez, C.; Chen, H. B.; Goloub, P.; Mamouri, R. E.; Kazadzis, S.; Paronis, D.; Tsaknakis, G.; Baldasano, J. M.
    Extraordinary dust event over Beijing, China, during April 2006: Lidar, Sun photometric, satellite observations and model validation
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07806
    10.1029/2006GL029125
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Ordóńez, C.; Brunner, D.; Staehelin, J.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Pyle, J. A.; Jonas, M.; Wernli, H.; Prévôt, A. S. H.
    Strong influence of lowermost stratospheric ozone on lower tropospheric background ozone changes over Europe
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07805
    10.1029/2006GL029113
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Chen, Xi; Lin, Guangxing; Fu, Zuntao
    Long-range correlations in daily relative humidity fluctuations: A new index to characterize the climate regions over China
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07804
    10.1029/2006GL027755
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Greatbatch, Richard J.; Zhai, Xiaoming; Eden, Carsten; Olbers, Dirk
    The possible role in the ocean heat budget of eddy-induced mixing due to air-sea interaction
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07604
    10.1029/2007GL029533
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Böse, M.; Ionescu, C.; Wenzel, F.
    Earthquake early warning for Bucharest, Romania: Novel and revised scaling relations
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07302
    10.1029/2007GL029396
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Goren, L.; Aharonov, E.
    Long runout landslides: The role of frictional heating and hydraulic diffusivity
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07301
    10.1029/2006GL028895
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Wang, H.; Lühr, H.
    Seasonal-longitudinal variation of substorm occurrence frequency: Evidence for ionospheric control
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07104
    10.1029/2007GL029423
    07 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Wang, Faming
    Investigating ENSO sensitivity to mean climate in an intermediate model using a novel statistical technique
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07705
    10.1029/2007GL029348
    06 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Gazeau, Frédéric; Quiblier, Christophe; Jansen, Jeroen M.; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre; Middelburg, Jack J.; Heip, Carlo H. R.
    Impact of elevated CO2 on shellfish calcification
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07603
    10.1029/2006GL028554
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    Bart, Gwendolyn D.; Melosh, H. J.
    Using lunar boulders to distinguish primary from distant secondary impact craters
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07203
    10.1029/2007GL029306
    06 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Manga, M.; Wang, C.-Y.
    Pressurized oceans and the eruption of liquid water on Europa and Enceladus
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07202
    10.1029/2007GL029297
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    Kiss, P.; Jánosi, I. M.; Torres, O.
    Early calibration problems detected in TOMS Earth-Probe aerosol signal
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07803
    10.1029/2006GL028108
    05 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming
    Meridional and vertical out-of-phase relationships of temperature anomalies associated with the Northern Annular Mode variability
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07704
    10.1029/2006GL028729
    05 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Coleman, Neil M.; Dinwiddie, Cynthia L.; Baker, Victor R.
    Evidence that floodwaters filled and overflowed Capri Chasma, Mars
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07201
    10.1029/2006GL028872
    05 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Inan, U. S.; Piddyachiy, D.; Peter, W. B.; Sauvaud, J. A.; Parrot, M.
    DEMETER satellite observations of lightning-induced electron precipitation
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07103
    10.1029/2006GL029238
    05 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    von Savigny, C.; Burrows, J. P.; Rapp, M.
    UV limb-scatter spectra of noctilucent clouds consistent with mono-modal particle size distribution
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07802
    10.1029/2006GL028846
    04 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Gultepe, I.; Isaac, G. A.
    Cloud fraction parameterization as a function of mean cloud water content and its variance using in-situ observations
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07801
    10.1029/2006GL028223
    04 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Raible, C. C.
    On the relation between extremes of midlatitude cyclones and the atmospheric circulation using ERA40
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07703
    10.1029/2006GL029084
    04 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Morison, James; Wahr, John; Kwok, Ron; Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia
    Recent trends in Arctic Ocean mass distribution revealed by GRACE
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07602
    10.1029/2006GL029016
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    Wörman, Anders; Packman, Aaron I.; Marklund, Lars; Harvey, Judson W.; Stone, Susa H.
    Fractal topography and subsurface water flows from fluvial bedforms to the continental shield
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07402
    10.1029/2007GL029426
    04 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Halfar, Jochen; Steneck, Robert; Schöne, Bernd; Moore, G. W. K.; Joachimski, Michael; Kronz, Andreas; Fietzke, Jan; Estes, James
    Coralline alga reveals first marine record of subarctic North Pacific climate change
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07702
    10.1029/2006GL028811
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Aragăo, Luiz Eduardo O. C.; Malhi, Yadvinder; Roman-Cuesta, Rosa Maria; Saatchi, Sassan; Anderson, Liana O.; Shimabukuro, Yosio Edemir
    Spatial patterns and fire response of recent Amazonian droughts
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07701
    10.1029/2006GL028946
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Noh, Yign; Yim, Bo Young; You, Sung Hyup; Yoon, Jong Hwan; Qiu, Bo
    Seasonal variation of eddy kinetic energy of the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent simulated by an eddy-resolving OGCM
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07601
    10.1029/2006GL029130
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Platzer, K.; Bartelt, P.; Kern, M.
    Measurements of dense snow avalanche basal shear to normal stress ratios (S/N)
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07501
    10.1029/2006GL028670
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Emanuel, Ryan E.; D'Odorico, Paolo; Epstein, Howard E.
    Evidence of optimal water use by vegetation across a range of North American ecosystems
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07401
    10.1029/2006GL028909
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Lui, A. T. Y.; Dunlop, M. W.; Rčme, H.; Kistler, L. M.; Gustafsson, G.; Zong, Q.-G.
    Internal structure of a magnetic flux rope from Cluster observations
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07102
    10.1029/2007GL029263
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]
    Chaston, C. C.; Carlson, C. W.; McFadden, J. P.; Ergun, R. E.; Strangeway, R. J.
    How important are dispersive Alfvén waves for auroral particle acceleration?
    Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 34, No. 7, L07101
    10.1029/2006GL029144
    03 April 2007 [Full Article] [Print Version] [Abstract]

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  3. #3
    Hung Angel Platinum Poster trish's Avatar
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    that list was April's, not May's.


    "...I no longer believe that people's secrets are defined and communicable, or their feelings full-blown and easy to recognize."_Alice Munro, Chaddeleys and Flemings.

    "...the order in creation which you see is that which you have put there, like a string in a maze, so that you shall not lose your way". _Judge Holden, Cormac McCarthy's, BLOOD MERIDIAN.

  4. #4
    Professional Poster guyone's Avatar
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    Regardless the Neptunians should not be driving around in SUV's or letting their cows fart so much.


    John Ellis Bush in 2012!

  5. #5
    Hung Angel Platinum Poster trish's Avatar
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    they shouldn't power their SUV's. nor their cows, with fossil fuels.


    "...I no longer believe that people's secrets are defined and communicable, or their feelings full-blown and easy to recognize."_Alice Munro, Chaddeleys and Flemings.

    "...the order in creation which you see is that which you have put there, like a string in a maze, so that you shall not lose your way". _Judge Holden, Cormac McCarthy's, BLOOD MERIDIAN.

  6. #6
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    solar might be a little hard out in them parts....



  7. #7
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    Default Re: Global Warming on Neptune(GRL)

    Quote Originally Posted by White_Male_Canada
    Those damn Neptunians ! When will they learn to give up those SUVs !!!!

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Space Science Institute in Colorado and the Lowell Observatory, note that measurements of visible light from Neptune have been taken at the Lowell Observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona since 1950. Obviously, light from Neptune can be related to seasons on the planet, small variations in Neptune’s orbit, the apparent tilt of the axis as viewed from the Earth, the varying distance from Neptune to Earth, and of course, changes in the atmosphere near the Lowell Observatory. Astronomers are clever, they are fully aware of these complications, and they adjust the measurements accordingly.

    As seen in Figure 1, Neptune has been getting brighter since around 1980; furthermore, infrared measurements of the planet since 1980 show that the planet has been warming steadily from 1980 to 2004. As they say on Neptune, global warming has become an inconvenient truth. But with no one to blame, Hammel and Lockwood explored how variations in the output of the Sun might control variations in the brightness of Neptune.

    What would seem so simple statistically is complicated by the degrees of freedom in the various time series which is related to the serial correlation in the data (e.g., next year’s value is highly dependent on this year’s value). Nonetheless, they find that the correlation coefficient between solar irradiance and Neptune’s brightness is near 0.90 (1.00 is perfect). The same relationship is found between the Earth’s temperature anomalies and the solar output. Hammel and Lockwood note “In other words, the Earth temperature values are as well correlated with solar irradiance (r = 0.89) as they are with Neptune’s blue brightness (|r| > 0.90), assuming a 10-year lag of the Neptune values.” The temporal lag is needed to account for the large mass of Neptune that would require years to adjust to any changes in solar output.

    Hammel and Lockwood conclude that “In summary, if Neptune’s atmosphere is indeed responding to some variation in solar activity in a manner similar to that of the Earth albeit with a temporal lag” then “Neptune may provide an independent (and extraterrestrial) locale for studies of solar effects on planetary atmospheres.”

    Hammel, H. B., and G. W. Lockwood, 2007. Suggestive correlations between the brightness of Neptune, solar variability, and Earth’s temperature, Geophysical Research Letters
    FINALLY!!!!!! SOMEONE WITH A BRAIN!!............ its the suns gravitational field flipping, fucks things up and solar flares go insane. and well you know the rest.



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