Another Anxious Annexation? Venezuela -vs- Guyana

[Stavros]

Annexation, it might be said, is a new form of warfare. One thinks automatically of the annexation of the 'Golan Heights' by Israel in the October War of 1973. Henry Kissinger tried and failed to repair the damage at the time, and since then, Trump has endorsed the annexation even though it confirms that Israel treats international law with contempt.

India's annexation of the disputed territory of Kashmir was intended to end the dispute, it has not.

Russia's attempt to annex the Ukraine has resulted in a bitter and destructive war.

Next week (December 3rd, 2023), a Referendum in Venezuela will seek public endorsement of a territorial dispute with Guyana that dates back to the gold rush in the early 19th century when the British demarcated the territory of British Guiana by, according to Venezuela, seizing 160,000 sq km of its territory. A review of this dispute and how it played out throughout the 19th century to Venezuela's disadvantage, can be read in the link below from the Office of the US Historian.

Now oil has replaced gold as the prize, with Venezuela in effect claiming two-thirds of Guyana.

Will this result in a war? Hard to know right now. Whose side will the US take? Hard to know.

Watch that space!

Venezuela sets referendum date on territory dispute with Guyana | Reuters

2023 Guayana Esequiba crisis - Wikipedia

Milestones: 1866–1898 - Office of the Historian (state.gov)

[blackchubby38]

So let me see if I understand this. Venezuela has enough money to fund the possible annexation of parts of Guyana. But is in such dire financial straits that its forcing people to leave the country in droves, causing a migrant crisis in the United States.

You know sometimes a developing country has to look in the mirror and wonder if poor leadership is the reason why they're having issues.

[filghy2]

It's the age-old formula - distract attention from domestic problems by banging the nationalist drum and picking a fight with foreigners

[Stavros]

So let me see if I understand this. Venezuela has enough money to fund the possible annexation of parts of Guyana. But is in such dire financial straits that its forcing people to leave the country in droves, causing a migrant crisis in the United States.

You know sometimes a developing country has to look in the mirror and wonder if poor leadership is the reason why they're having issues.

Poor leadership? More like catastrophic.

Compare what the UK and Norway did with their North Sea oil revenues, even though Norway in the 1970s had a population of 4 million or so. A fabulous Sovereign Wealth Fund in Norway, but not in the UK.

I once sat in the office of an Iraqi working in Abu Dhabi -he pointed out of the window and said something like 'this is what they did with their oil wealth' then argued Saddam had thrown Iraq's all away on wars and corruption, that after almost 100 years Iraq had little to show for its primary source of revenue.

Consider the vast amounts of wealth made in Nigeria and Russia just from oil and gas, then ask 'where did the money go?' because it wasn't spent on developing a diverse economy capable of standing alone as far as that goes -Mexico doesn't have much to show for it either.

Under Chavez the money was spent on the people, but not as investment, just hand-outs, so that in time the amount of money borrowed on high oil prices rocketed and when the price fell, the debt collectors marched in, an oil-rich country bankrupt. Call it 'Populist' politics if you like but rational investment strategies were replaced by headline grabbling gimmicks from people unfit for public office.

The irony is that Venezuela has some of the largest deposits of 'heavy oil' which never used to be economical to produce but these days can be produced technologically due to improvements there, and commercially too -but investments in the industry have stalled so the stuff is in the ground -which is where the anti Fossil Fuel movement wants it to stay.

Thus, the allure of oil might not be the prize Venezuela gets -the Referendum has voted yes, but in a low turnout and without anyone knowing if the vote was rigged. But what happens next? Is the military going to march into a sovereign country and just take over?

So we still don't know if this is just another desperate gimmick from Maduro, or the start of a war. Maybe one can compare it to Argentina invading the Falkland Islands in 1982 (approx 5 billion barrels of oil under the sea between them) and ask what happened next? Not good for the Generals, not good for Maduro?

We await an announcement from Washington DC...

Venezuelan voters reject ICJ jurisdiction in dispute with Guyana | Reuters

Venezuelans vote to claim sovereignty over a swatch of neighboring Guyana | AP News