The New World Order...Again

[Stavros]

Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov is not part of Putin's inner circle, and may be dismissed as Putin's parrot, but this half-Russian, half-Armenian polymath (he speaks Russian, English, French, Sinhalese and Dhevi) should know better than to make this statement-

"Peace negotiations on Ukraine are possible only if they aim at establishing a "new world order" without US domination, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during a trip to Turkey on Friday."What should be discussed are what the principles of the new world order, which we all need, will be based on," he said. Lavrov added that instead of a one-sided world order, this should be based "on the principles of the UN Charter, which, I emphasise once again, are directly violated by the collective West."".
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov links peace in Ukraine to a 'new world order' | Euronews

If any state has violated the UN Charter, it is Russia, or maybe Lavrov doesn't think invading Eastern Ukraine was a violation of the Charter because it was done in 'self-defence'?

Where is this New World Order? What does it, or would it look like?

For some, like Douglas Murray in the Telegraph, the axis of global power is pivoting to East Asia, as his headline says (the article is hidden behind a paywall) -"While America burns, Xi Jinping's plot to dominate the world is quietly succeeding" (Telegraph, 08 April 2023).

I don't see it like this.

Yes, China negotiated a handshake between Saudi Arabia and Iran, though a full rapprochement has yet to be realized, and there is no ceasefire in the unwinnable war in the Yemen or any hint of what a conclusion to that mess will look like, for Iran, Saudi Arabia and indeed, the Yemen itself -as it were, 'both of them', if the South splits again.

Yes, Saudi Arabia has cut production after MbS met Biden and the latter asked him not to; but that is not because Saudi Arabia pivots toward China and Russia to trade in the Rouble or any other currency, it is because MbS doesn't like the way the US attacked him over the gruesome murder of Jamal Khashoggi; it really is just spite, rather than a whole new policy. MbS can be as petulant and childish as Trump.

Yes, China is pivoting toward Central Asia, but it is no different from the Belt and Road trading network in Africa, because too many people in the Central Asian Republics work in Russia and send back a proportion of their wages to make their relationship with China more politically important than Russia. And a lot of what China does is create a debtor relationship which can breed resentment rather than gratitude.

If there was a New World Order, who would sit on the UN Security Council? I would argue that if reformed, it would be made up of the USA, the EU, China, India and Brazil. I see no place for Russia, as it is, as some have argued, on the way to becoming a failed state. Paul Krugman has stated, and I think he is right-

""Russia looks more than ever than a Potemkin superpower, with little behind its impressive facade," Krugman said. "Its role as an energy supplier is proving much harder to weaponize than many imagined.""
Nobel economist Paul Krugman says Putin's plot to weaponize natural gas prices is a failure, and Russia's superpower status is a facade (yahoo.com)

Last, the Dollar remains the key global currency, and I don't see major powers wishing to trade in any other. Saudi Arabia and the oil-rich Gulf States have and continue to benefit from parking their profits in banks in Dollars, as well as buying US debt while for most other States the Dollar is reliable as trading currency. I also don't see China being anything other than a major player, even if the global status of the USA is not as great as once it was -which is what a lot of Americans and non-Americans want anyway. Hegemony is an over-used word in International Relations. Global networks are not that rigidly structured.

Just consider how Europe has changed since the UK exited the European Union. From being an organization structured by the Anglo-French-German axis, the EU is now dominated by Germany, France and Poland, while the future, in trading terms, looks to me like it will favour massive investment in Ukraine, and virtually none at all in Russia.

So when Putin goes, I see the prospects for instability in Russia, and while this is bad for Russia, I don't think it will upset most other powers, but then I think the nuclear threat of Russia is exaggerated as I am not sure their ageing arsenal is in good condition, but Russia remains unpredictable.

So, New World Order? Nyet.