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  1. #111
    filghy2 Silver Poster
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo View Post
    Apparently New Hampshire has open primaries, though. Non-Republicans can vote.
    All the more reason to think it may not tell us too much about her chances in most other states.


    Last edited by filghy2; 01-17-2024 at 11:37 AM.

  2. #112
    filghy2 Silver Poster
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Stavros View Post
    As for Haley, a lot may yet happen to Trump given the cases taking place.
    There's two major problems with your argument.
    1. Nothing decisive seems likely to happen in the next two months, and the timetable means that he'll probably have the nomination locked up by then.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_R...tial_primaries
    2. His popularity among Republicans has gone up since he's been indicted. Most seem very inclined to view it all as political and rationalise it away, just as they've done with January 6.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/national/


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  3. #113
    Senior Member Platinum Poster
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    I understand the compelling argument you make -on current evidence. As for Haley, she could be losing support for the silly things that she says, whether it is her comments on the Civil War, or her latest nonsense-

    "Speaking to Fox host Brian Kilmeade who asked the Republican presidential candidate whether the Republican party is racist, Haley responded, “No. We’re not a racist country. We’ve never been a racist country.”"
    Ron DeSantis says Republicans will lose if Donald Trump becomes presidential nominee – US politics live (theguardian.com)

    If she continues to make a fool of herself, then the irony is that Trump could succeed even though he is the greater fool, though one wonders if DeSantis can make a comeback. I am still not convinced Trump will make it to the Convention, but maybe that is wishful thinking?


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  4. #114
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'



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  5. #115
    Cynical Idealist 5 Star Poster Fitzcarraldo's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Stavros View Post
    She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination.


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    "We can't seem to cure them of the idea that our everyday life is only an illusion, behind which lies the reality of dreams."--Old Missionary, Fitzcarraldo

  6. #116
    filghy2 Silver Poster
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo View Post
    She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination.
    It's Catch 22 though. If they can't win if they criticise Trump, they also can't make a case for why it should be them rather than him.

    I think they were really gambling on the polls showing that Trump couldn't win a general election, but that hasn't happened.


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  7. #117
    Senior Member Gold Poster KnightHawk 2.0's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo View Post
    She's trying not to alienate Trump's base. No Republican who alienates Trump's base will get the nomination.
    Agree. Trump's base isn't going to vote for Nikki Haley,they are going to do what they always do,and that's vote for their guy the Domestic Terrorist Leader,Sore Loser and Petulent Child Donald Trump.



  8. #118
    Cynical Idealist 5 Star Poster Fitzcarraldo's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by filghy2 View Post
    It's Catch 22 though. If they can't win if they criticise Trump, they also can't make a case for why it should be them rather than him.

    I think they were really gambling on the polls showing that Trump couldn't win a general election, but that hasn't happened.
    And he owns the party. That's what they get for enabling him in 2016. Both Haley and Christie had key roles in the administration, regardless of what they say now. Hell, Trump gave Christie COVID and Christie still waited years to say anything bad about him.


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    "We can't seem to cure them of the idea that our everyday life is only an illusion, behind which lies the reality of dreams."--Old Missionary, Fitzcarraldo

  9. #119
    Senior Member Gold Poster KnightHawk 2.0's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    Quote Originally Posted by Fitzcarraldo View Post
    And he owns the party. That's what they get for enabling him in 2016. Both Haley and Christie had key roles in the administration, regardless of what they say now. Hell, Trump gave Christie COVID and Christie still waited years to say anything bad about him.
    Completely agree Chris Christie and Nikki Haley are getting exactly what they deserve for enabling him for over 8 years, and too late for them to criticize him now since they both used work for his administration.



  10. #120
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    Default Re: 2024 USA Election: Wishin' and Hopin'

    An alternative view that argues Trump's victory in Iowa was not decisive. Crunches the numbers, worth watching




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