Israel: Turn Right for the Abyss

[Stavros]

Israel bombed the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Iran vows retaliation, some voices wonder with fear if the Middle East is about to be plunged into war.

The attack was possible because Syria has no control of the sky above its country, it is vulnerable to attack from external parties because the Asad regime is mostly at war with the citizens of that country.

But it was also possible because the IDF have repeatedly warned Netanyahu against a direct strike against Iran. One wonders if Netanyahu has in effect dared Iran to attack Israel, thereby bringing the US into a military alliance with a single or joint military attack on Iran or an Iranian target, precisely to force the USA into doing something it doesn't want to do. Netanyahu is that kind of 'strategist', a man who acts out of desperation to try to solve the problems he has caused.

For HAMAS, this, in theory would bring the other Middle Eastern states into the conflict, only I doubt it. Most of the Middle Eastern states loathe Iran, and do not see anything positive in its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Asad regime in Syria, the so-called 'Houthi' rebels in Yemen, or their support for HAMAS, which is merely tactical as the Shi'a Muslims of Iran and the Sunni fanatics of HAMAS are ideological enemies at the best of times.

If there is no regional expansion of the war between Israel and HAMAS, it will deal another blow to the long term aim of HAMAS to demolish the status quo in their favour, and with Iran being seen as close to Russia, it is unlikely to find any supporters in the Gulf or Saudi Arabia.

Thus in an election year, Netanyahu may be playing a deadly game with President Biden, to see if he takes the bait and lures the US into a tit-for-tat exchange with Iran, probably through proxy targets in Iraq as happened under Trump. The irony is that for all their vocal support for Israel, most of Trump's supporters want an 'America First' that declines to get involved in foreign wars.

Netanyahu has said this is a war for Civilization, that if Iran wins the region will turn back 'to the dark'. The man has been pumping these existential propositions for years now, and we see the result- chaos and mass murder in Gaza, revolting slaughter, sex crimes and the abduction of hostages in Israel -at what point has the world had enough of this addiction to war, and why should anyone come to the rescue of a reckless Fascist who doesn't care how many people die, and will, like Trump insist he is right from now to the end of his times?

[Stavros]

A long read from Rashid Khalidi. Here are two extracts

"Hamas’s philosophy of armed resistance is unlikely to disappear as long as there is no prospect of an end to military occupation, colonisation and oppression of the Palestinian people, or of a political horizon promising true Palestinian self-determination and equality. Thus, an upheaval that might have been a catalyst of change may in fact produce continuity of colonisation and occupation, of the Israeli establishment’s exclusive reliance on force, and of armed Palestinian resistance."

"One constant in the 100 years of this war is that Palestinians have not been allowed to choose who represents them. As in the past, their preferences may be unacceptable to the powers that be, whether Israel, the western states or their Arab clients. These powers are once again likely to attempt to impose their choice of who represents the Palestinians and who is not allowed to do so, with the Palestinians themselves having no voice in this decision. In the absence of Palestinian agreement on a unified and credible political voice representing a national consensus, this would mean that crucial decisions about the future of their people will be made by outside powers, as has happened so many times in the past."
‘A new abyss’: Gaza and the hundred years’ war on Palestine | Israel-Gaza war | The Guardian

I wonder if the Americans who are using the slogan 'Genocide Joe' have a clue who would be their alternative, given that the US is not about to abandon Israel? It is gesture politics and not much else.

I also no longer support the use of the word 'Zionism' which I have concluded after many decades, is fiction. Israel always was a Nationalist project, nothing more and nothing less, which is why the Jewish aspect is so confusing as the Project has appealed to Jews who are secular as well as religious.

As for Iran, which does not get a mention here, I think the war-talk may just be designed to scare people, as I see little for Iran to gain in attacking Israel -Iran is loathed by most Arab countries in the region, and if it were to step over the mark, it would be an opportunity to severely downgrade its military capacity, as well as inflicting more damage on its economy -though this would be cast as 'defence of Israel', it would be seen as a diminution of Iran's ability to support its proxies in the region, and also weaken the Russians if Iran cannot continue to supply weapons, though the political support can continue.

In line with Netanyahu's 'war everywhere and always', all we can expect is a proxy war, in either Iraq or Syria and the casualties might be higher, though after more than 20 years of war I don't suppose people care very much who lives and who dies in those countries.

[Stavros]

If Israel's bombing of Iranian sovereign territory in Damascus was a Tit, Iran's attack on Israel might be seen as a Tat. Although this is the first time Iran has launched an attack from its territory on Israel, it is not the first time Israel has conducted operations on Iran, in Iran in the case of the various assassinations of nuclear scientists.

Will Israel now go for another Tit on Iran, or a Tat-Tit? Probably, but as the Iranian knew most of, maybe all of their drones and missiles would not get past the Iron Dome, maybe Israel will attack a 'soft' target, one that confirms the gesture it needs to make, destroying some weapons plant or something that does not cause many human casualties. Iran hasn't killed anyone in Israel, as far as I know, unlike the attack in Damascus which killed Zahedi, much loved in Iran.

One could believe Biden will say Enough Already! to Netanyahu, on the basis that both Israel and Iran have made their point, but Netanyahu is desperate. Israel has killed a lot of HAMAS fighters, but the movement is still intact, and incredibly given the gruesome atrocities of October 7th, Israel's retaliation in Gaza has lost it a great deal of the sympathy it has had, to the extent that it is more isolated than it has been since the woeful attack on Lebanon in 1982, designed to destroy the PLO, and another failure, or the Intifada of 1988.

The Arab states not only could not care what happens to Iran, at least three, Qatar, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, have been giving covert assistance to Israel, in the form of intelligence and aerial mapping, bases in Qatar and Jordan enabling the US Air Force to intercept the drones and missiles Israel hasn't reached, and so on.

Iran, on the other hand, has lived up to its promise to punish Israel for the Damascus attack, falling for Netanyahu's gambit. But if the Arabs are on Israel and the US's side, Iran can probably count on support from Russia and China, which is the real cause of anxiety should this current Tit for Tat madness get out of control.

Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi in Yemen may step up a gear, but after the incident in the Straits of Hormuz, return to the 'Tanker War' that lasted from 1984 to 1988, potentially bringing the US into direct confrontation with Iran, is also one of Netanyahu's intentions but something people will want to avoid, as it will not only involve military confrontation but also affect the price of oil.

The other aim is to weaken Biden, given that Netanyahu has had a relationship with the Trump family going back decades, and because Trump is literally plain stupid, and can be easily manipulated. Netanyahu needs him in the White House, as he is more pliable and reliable than Biden.

One would have hoped that history reveal the pattern of mistakes that undermine the Tit and the Tat going on now, but neither Netanyahu nor Iran care much about history, or human lives for that matter.

It will be a tense week, but can anyone calm the fears people have? Biden called Netanyahu - why didn't he call the Ayatollah Khamene'i, or some other dude in the Supreme Council? After all, it was Zhou Enlai who called Kissinger when there was a danger the Russian and China Battle of Zhenbou in 1969 would escalate, and it transformed China's relations with the US, but I doubt Iran is in the mood for a new agenda, but then neither is Netanyahu.

So many better uses for Tits, so many reasons to avoid Tats.

[Stavros]

Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari-

"“I want you to show me another country facing over 110 ballistic missiles, and the drones,” he said. “I think Iran meant to get results and didn’t get results. The ballistic missiles are an escalatory factor. And when they used these numbers they wanted more significant results than what happened.”."
Israel ‘ready to do what is necessary’ after massive drone and missile strikes from Iran – Middle East crisis live (theguardian.com)

Ukraine? And in how many countries are men, women and children imprisoned without trial, or corralled into areas encased in walls and policed by the army? Or where there the segregation of a city is official, as in Hebron?
H1 and H2 Two Sides of the Same City: Hebron, Palestine (wesaidgotravel.com)

None of the hate and violence is unique, but not all conflicts soaked in hate and violence gone on without end -"enough of blood and tears"? Anyone remember that?

[Stavros]

*An Israeli has claimed that Israel did not strike an Iranian Embassy building in Damascus. Online sources say it was an annex of the Embassy, but I assume in the international law of diplomacy, this remains 'sovereign' Iranian territory.
Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus - Wikipedia

*For those interested on the 'backstory' to the Tits and the Tats-
The strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria could be the spark that ignites the Middle East | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank

*As for this guy, what is he talking about? Does he even know? (no comment needed on the headline related to a convicted fraud running for President)-

"Speaker of the House Mike Johnson — a staunch ally to Mr Trump — has also attempted to pin Iran’s attacks on Mr Biden.“The Biden Administration’s undermining of Israel and appeasement of Iran have contributed to these terrible developments,” Mr Johnson said in a statement on Saturday evening." (My emphasis in Bold).
Trump says Iran attack on Israel ‘would never have happened if I were president’ (yahoo.com)

[Stavros]

The Idiot has spoken-

"Donald Trump responded to Iran’s Saturday attack on Israel by reposting a 2018 all-caps tweet in which he threatened the president of Iran and said the US would not stand for “DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH.”“To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” read the 2018 tweet."
Trump reposts 2018 all-caps anti-Iran threat in response to Israel strike | Donald Trump | The Guardian

What did this Firebrand President do in the aftermath of the USA's assassination of Qasem Suleimani, and Iran's retaliation on a US base in Iraq? Launch an attack the like of which had never been seen before in history?...or...

"n his first public comments on the attack, at 8:45 pm EST on 7 January, President Donald Trump tweeted "All is well!", said that damage assessments were ongoing, and added that he would make a statement on the attack the following morning...In his televised White House statement on 8 January, while being flanked by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump sought to reduce tensions by downplaying the impact of the missile attacks, observing that Iran appeared to be "standing down", and ruling out a direct military response. Furthermore, Trump said he was willing to "embrace peace" and urged greater international cooperation in the region,"
Operation Martyr Soleimani - Wikipedia

[KnightHawk 2.0]

The Idiot has spoken-

"Donald Trump responded to Iran’s Saturday attack on Israel by reposting a 2018 all-caps tweet in which he threatened the president of Iran and said the US would not stand for “DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH.”“To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” read the 2018 tweet."
Trump reposts 2018 all-caps anti-Iran threat in response to Israel strike | Donald Trump | The Guardian

What did this Firebrand President do in the aftermath of the USA's assassination of Qasem Suleimani, and Iran's retaliation on a US base in Iraq? Launch an attack the like of which had never been seen before in history?...or...

"n his first public comments on the attack, at 8:45 pm EST on 7 January, President Donald Trump tweeted "All is well!", said that damage assessments were ongoing, and added that he would make a statement on the attack the following morning...In his televised White House statement on 8 January, while being flanked by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump sought to reduce tensions by downplaying the impact of the missile attacks, observing that Iran appeared to be "standing down", and ruling out a direct military response. Furthermore, Trump said he was willing to "embrace peace" and urged greater international cooperation in the region,"
Operation Martyr Soleimani - Wikipedia

Completely agree 1000% the Idiotic Fraudulent Assclown Donald Trump has spoken,with another one of his incoherent tweets on his failed social media platform. The more he talks the more unhinged he sounds.

[Stavros]

Foreign Policy presents the 3 strategic options Israel may consider when 'retaliating' against Iran's attack on Israel, as if that event was not retaliation for Israel's attack on Iran's Consular building in Damascus. I don't believe any of this is called the 'Tweedledum and Tweedledee Syndrome', but it could be.

Regimes such as the one in Iran, or the current one in Israel seem to need a drama every six months or a year, perhaps to remind everyone that they are in the midst of an existential crisis, and if they don't act, they will lose everything.

'You got the win, take the win', was Biden's humble response. But Netanyahu doesn't do humble, neither does Tehran, or HAMAS.

After 100 years, no advance. And not much hope.

Iran Attack: 3 Ways Israel Could Respond (foreignpolicy.com)

[Del06]

I thought y'all would be interested in this one:

https://mondoweiss.net/2024/04/why-i...not-a-failure/

[Stavros]

I thought y'all would be interested in this one:

https://mondoweiss.net/2024/04/why-i...not-a-failure/

Problem is that Iran did not need to use the attack to force Israel to reveal where its defences are -they attacked the Nevatim (not Netivim as stated in the article) base in Southern Israel because it was used to launch the attack on Damascus, ie they already knew about it. Both Israel and Iran have spies in each other's countries to give them the info they need -how else has Israel been able to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists inside Iran? You think nobody in Israel pockets some money in exchange for information of vale to Iran, or that Palestinians in Gaza are not feeding intelligence to Israel?

Eg

"According to Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, the primary targets of the strikes were the Nevatim Airbase, from which Israel launched the Damascus attack, and the intelligence center in Mount Hermon, which had allegedly provided the intelligence for the consulate attack. Tehran emphasized that it had no intention of further escalating the conflict, with Bagheri declaring, “Our operations are over.”". [Only it's not over until it's over].
Iran and Israel’s Dangerous Gambit - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Russian air force regularly flies to the edge of UK air space to trigger a response and monitor it -this has been standard practice in the military since the Cold War.

The core issue in the latest exchange is not the Iranian response to the Damascus attack, but that Israel violated international law by targeting a building with diplomatic protection, being:

" "a significant violation of the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which ensures the inviolability of diplomatic agents and premises" ".
Israel strike on Iranian Embassy: A grave threat to global diplomatic laws – Middle East Monitor

-Israeli officials claim the building did not have Diplomatic status,- whatever. Iran and Israel have been at war with each other for years, the only question now is how far are both sides willing to go to get what they want?