The US Mid-Term Elections 2022

[Luke Warm]

I would suggest that in the US there is a long tradition of the Federal Govt not doing things, because they would have the tax citizens to achieve it. Washington didn't want to transform the Continental Army into a Federal Standing Army for this reason, though he failed to make that happen. Ironic I suppose, given that defence would then have been the job of 'a well armed militia'.

Apparently the US federal government was pretty minimal until after the civil war. I don’t recall, but I don’t think we even had federal taxes until then (forgive me for not Googling it).

The left has wanted to have publicly funded health care since at least the 1940s and FDR’s “New Deal” legislation, but for reasons I don’t know, they could not get it done at that time. Obamacare has some critical drawbacks and limitations but it was a bit of a miracle that at least something was passed, because it had been on the progressive wish-list for so long.

Regarding US policy towards Israel, the vast majority of US voters are focused on domestic issues, especially regarding the economy. I wonder how many Americans even know who Netenyahu is… I’d guess maybe 10%.

[Stavros]

Regarding US policy towards Israel, the vast majority of US voters are focused on domestic issues, especially regarding the economy. I wonder how many Americans even know who Netenyahu is… I’d guess maybe 10%.

Yes, but then a lot of Americans don't know much about their own country which is why on so many domestic issues you will hear people say things that would otherwise be incredible. The anti-vaxx movement has exposed the ignorance of Americans of their own history with regard to immunology.

The point about Israel is that it is not even a special case, if the contradiction between 'American values' and Foreign Policy is the matter. Russia is condemned for its annexation of Ukrainian territory, whereas Israel can annex the 'Golan Heights' which are part of Syria, and no ultimatum or threats, or sanctions follow. Turkey has been in illegal occupation of northern Cyprus since 1974 so where is the package of sanctions? Or the in-out attitude to northern Syria where it regularly attacks what it says are Kurdish 'separatists' without offering any proof, or an explanation of what it is that Kurds want -the people the US was supposed to be sponsoring for an Independent State after 1918 but which it did not follow through because the US left the League of Nations.

It may be realpolitik for the US to have good relations with Saudi Arabia, but in return they get nothing, as the price of oil per barrel is not something SA always changes if it can to support the US. Mohammed bin Salman has a personal relationship with Jared Kushner and is personally hostile to Democrats and Biden in particular. It tickles his ego to see an American President in effect begging Saudi Arabia, and to know he will screw the US as often as he can. As for the support SA gave to the 9/11 murderers, the weekly executions, Jamal Khashoggi and Saudi Arabia's less than hostile attitude to Russia, it really doesn't care what the US thinks. Neither for that matter does Israel, which is also 'soft' on Russia.

Maybe you should be asking what it is you get for the billions of $$$ you spend overseas. Looks like often it is a slap in the face.

[filghy2]

Apparently the US federal government was pretty minimal until after the civil war. I don’t recall, but I don’t think we even had federal taxes until then (forgive me for not Googling it).

It's even more recent than that. Federal income tax in the US only started in 1913, and was still very low until WWII. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income..._United_States

Most countries had fairly limited government until after the Great Depression and WWII. I guess those events made people realise there were merits in more active government rather than leaving people to their own devices. The US still has smaller government than other developed countries, but despite the best efforts of the right they have not been able to reverse the historical increase.

[filghy2]

For some historical context, I went back and looked at two midterm elections: 1994 and 2010.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_United_States_elections

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_elections

Both Clinton and Obama were able to accomplish some major policy goals in their first two years in office respectively, with only the latter having to deal with any issues when it came to the economy. But the Democratic Party still went on to suffer significant losses in the midterm elections. So its no wonder a majority of people expected there to be a red wave this year.

That was my point. Most of the media focussed too much on these historical precedents and discounted the actual data from independent polls that pointed to a close election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income..._United_States

I don't generally subscribe to arguments about systematic bias in the mainstream media, but I think one fault they have is the tendency to coalesce around a prevailing narrative. This can lead them to over-extrapolate the bits of data that fit the narrative and discount conflicting data. We'll never know, but it's possible the excessive pessimism about Democrat prospects discouraged some of their potential voters from voting.

[filghy2]

I suspect that there was a voter backlash to the January 6th attack on the US capital building. I took that extremely seriously, and I think other people did too, including Republican voters who aren’t all-in on Trump. I won’t be surprised if it’s a factor in 2024 and beyond.

Despite this, half the voters still voted Republican (according to reports, they got slightly more votes overall than the Democrats). I know this was better than expected given the general trend in mid-terms and high inflation, but I'm not convinced it's a big enough backlash to cause them to change their ways. Most of them are still more scared of Trump than they are of the voters - just look at their reaction to the infamous anti-semite dinner.

[filghy2]

According to this article, Republicans flipped 18 House seats that voted for Biden in 2020 (mainly in New York and California), while Democrats flipped only 5 seats that voted for Trump last time.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gops-h...han-we-thought

[filghy2]

It seems that demonising mail-in voting was not such a good idea for Republicans after all, but guess who stands in the way?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/1...oting-00072956