The US Mid-Term Elections 2022

[Stavros]

1) Vote Early, if they let you
Early voting has already begun in the Mid-Terms, and the first rejections have taken place in Georgia where a Black woman was told her vote has been challenged. She was not told by whom, or why, and it was probably because she has a PhD, and was determined enough to make enquiries to discover that a brief clause in the new election act in fact would have allowed the election clerk to accept the vote. One can imagine that less persistent voters, voters with other things to do that day, might just go home, while the prospect of most Black votes being challenged is real.
The report is here-
Early voters in Georgia face obstacles under state’s new election law | US news | The Guardian

2) Gunmen on Patrol, Watch your back!
Armed men have been parked near drop off boxes at night in Arizona, or Arizona doubling for a Military Dictatorship. Whether it deters voters from posting their ballots remains to be seen, but it does indicate that the boys in uniform may yet decide who gets to vote. Or maybe it is just bravado? Maybe someone can take them a drink of water?
The report is here-
Armed and masked 'ballot watchers' sat by ballot drop boxes in Arizona late at night, prompting police investigation (yahoo.com)

3) In any event, if Republicans lose the vote, they will change it
The argument here is that Republicans cannot lose. It doesn't matter how many votes are thrown out, if they still lose the popular vote, they have mechanisms to 'correct' the vote their way. Otherwise, we are told, it will be 'civil war'. Might be best to just cancel the vote and go straight to your local Gettysburg.
The report is here-
Pollster warns of post-midterm ‘civil war’ if voters don’t accept election results (yahoo.com)

Almost as tense as the UK waiting to find out who the next Prime Minster will be. And the Conservative Party doesn't have to bother the voters with that one!

[KnightHawk 2.0]

1) Vote Early, if they let you
Early voting has already begun in the Mid-Terms, and the first rejections have taken place in Georgia where a Black woman was told her vote has been challenged. She was not told by whom, or why, and it was probably because she has a PhD, and was determined enough to make enquiries to discover that a brief clause in the new election act in fact would have allowed the election clerk to accept the vote. One can imagine that less persistent voters, voters with other things to do that day, might just go home, while the prospect of most Black votes being challenged is real.
The report is here-
Early voters in Georgia face obstacles under state’s new election law | US news | The Guardian

2) Gunmen on Patrol, Watch your back!
Armed men have been parked near drop off boxes at night in Arizona, or Arizona doubling for a Military Dictatorship. Whether it deters voters from posting their ballots remains to be seen, but it does indicate that the boys in uniform may yet decide who gets to vote. Or maybe it is just bravado? Maybe someone can take them a drink of water?
The report is here-
Armed and masked 'ballot watchers' sat by ballot drop boxes in Arizona late at night, prompting police investigation (yahoo.com)

3) In any event, if Republicans lose the vote, they will change it
The argument here is that Republicans cannot lose. It doesn't matter how many votes are thrown out, if they still lose the popular vote, they have mechanisms to 'correct' the vote their way. Otherwise, we are told, it will be 'civil war'. Might be best to just cancel the vote and go straight to your local Gettysburg.
The report is here-
Pollster warns of post-midterm ‘civil war’ if voters don’t accept election results (yahoo.com)

Almost as tense as the UK waiting to find out who the next Prime Minster will be. And the Conservative Party doesn't have to bother the voters with that one!

All of this is happening because the MAGA King Donald Trump made false claims about the 2020 Election being stolen from him,and he did everything he could to overturn the results from filing ridiculous lawsuits,asking the US Supreme Court to intervene,asking the Georgia Secretary Of State to find 11,780 votes, and causing an insurrection to stop the certification of the ballots in an attempt to stay in power,and nearly 2 years later he's still out there spreading misinformation about the 2020 Election.

[Stavros]

All of this is happening because the MAGA King Donald Trump made false claims about the 2020 Election being stolen from him,and he did everything he could to overturn the results from filing ridiculous lawsuits,asking the US Supreme Court to intervene,asking the Georgia Secretary Of State to find 11,780 votes, and causing an insurrection to stop the certification of the ballots in an attempt to stay in power,and nearly 2 years later he's still out there spreading misinformation about the 2020 Election.

But long before Trump you had Newton Gingrich, so the question is, why has the Republican Party become the 'nasty party' of the USA? It has been in power so many times in the last 50 years yet casts itself and its voters as victims. It uses this position of grievance to attack, insult and abuse the very people whose votes they should be attempting to win, or have they reached a point where they do not consider certain people to be 'Americans' or in Tucker Carlson's phrase, 'Legacy Americans'?

And when they are not nasty, they are just plain ignorant. I don't know much about Herschel Walker, but from what snippets I have seen he comes across as a barely coherent fool, so who suggested he run for public office? People laugh at the UK because of the chaos caused in our politics by Brexit, but the laughter generated by Trump is more than a little nervous, and is based on deep fear. I am not sure who will be laughing in November. More like tears.

But, why?

[KnightHawk 2.0]

But long before Trump you had Newton Gingrich, so the question is, why has the Republican Party become the 'nasty party' of the USA? It has been in power so many times in the last 50 years yet casts itself and its voters as victims. It uses this position of grievance to attack, insult and abuse the very people whose votes they should be attempting to win, or have they reached a point where they do not consider certain people to be 'Americans' or in Tucker Carlson's phrase, 'Legacy Americans'?

And when they are not nasty, they are just plain ignorant. I don't know much about Herschel Walker, but from what snippets I have seen he comes across as a barely coherent fool, so who suggested he run for public office? People laugh at the UK because of the chaos caused in our politics by Brexit, but the laughter generated by Trump is more than a little nervous, and is based on deep fear. I am not sure who will be laughing in November. More like tears.

But, why?

Completely agree the Republican Party has become the party of Nastiness and Ignorance ,who cast themselves and their voters as victims,and use their position of grievance to attack their supporters because their don't certain people to be americans. The Ignorant Fool Herschel Walker is the type of candidate they like,because he'll do what they tell him to do and support him. And also agree that the laughter from the MAGA King Donald Trump is based on fear. Because the Republican Party want to be in control of the House and Senate,and will do anything to obtain that power.

[broncofan]

There's a lot at stake because Trump has always represented a slide into fascism and post-truth politics. The Republican Party has been the party of Trump since 2016, were unmoved by a coup he tried to carry out, and now endorse pretty open antisemitism, along with the racism, Islamophobia and hatred of the transgender community that has been their staple for a long time. They've overturned Roe, have their eye on Obergefell and gay marriage, and have pretty much convinced people that facing any consequences for overt hatred by private citizens or companies is "cancel culture" rather than society doing what it's always done by enforcing social norms.

I will be voting early and straight Democratic ticket.

There have been some good posts by Filghy and Stavros about whether the Republican party under Trump is merely a more extreme version of the same insidious politics we saw with the tea party and before that with Gingrich in the 90s. They've generally convinced me that the party is not categorically different but was headed in this direction and primed by Trump's predecessors to tolerate more and more extreme behavior. And still I feel we've reached a tipping point where just about everyone who is female, gay, transgender, Black, Jewish, Muslim, or any visible minority should feel threatened by what they're doing.

Republicans will support Black people, but only if they don't support voting rights for other Black people. They support Jews, but only those who they can placate with militaristic nonsense about Israel, while engaging in financial conspiracy theories about Jews and tolerating public speech that pretty much identifies us as enemies of the state. I have not seen them use Muslims in the same way (maybe indicating their hatred is unconditional and there are no compromises available to individual Muslims who want to be part of their shitshow), but then there are the Log Cabin Republicans who find themselves banned from GOP sponsored events yet still wanting to be part of the big tent. But what do they stand for? A return to an era where base prejudices could be openly expressed without social consequences? Fundamentalist Christian doctrine enforced against women and the lgbt community? What the hell does all of this do for anyone except socialize human misery?

[Stavros]

I have said it before, but I think the US system enables more extremists, weirdos and incompetents to enter public office than most other Liberal Democracies. Part of this is due to the absence of a proper membership roll and rules.

In the past, men and women seeking office in Congress used to have experience at some level in their State, from their House/Senate all the way to Governor, which for some was one of the best placed offices for any aspiring President, although I think, statistically, being VP has been the most common key to the Oval Office.

But anyone can declare themselves a Democrat or a Republican, vote in the Primaries, and put themselves forward for election, whereas if you had a Roll and Rules, then for example, it would not be possible for someone without, say, 5 years of membership. It used to be the case in the UK Labour Party that you could not get onto the Panel for Parliament without a vote by the local Party, and that wasn't possible if people didn't know who you were but I don't know if it still holds, but on this basis, Trump would not have been able to represent the Republicans.

Indeed, he realized when he ran as an Independent in 2000 that he had no machine to carry him nationwide -and pay for it-, and was also not well known enough to the public -but on most aspects of his personal history and what was known of his character, he was, and remains unfit for public office, but the Party had no way of preventing him from standing, and got for their reward a man totally absorbed by himself, and completely incapable, as Bob Woodward said yesterday-

"“Trump is an unparalleled danger,” Woodward wrote in a Washington Post essay adapted from the new audiobook. “When you listen to him on the range of issues from foreign policy to the virus to racial injustice, it’s clear he did not know what to do. Trump was overwhelmed by the job. He was largely disconnected from the needs and leadership expectations of the public and his absolute self-focus became the presidency.”"
Trump Tapes Reveal He's 'Dangerous' And 'A Threat To Democracy,' Bob Woodward Warns | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk)

Either Trump has made conspiracy theories and extreme policies 'mainstream', or it is the decades of 'failure' by previous Democrat and Republican politics that has undermined 'the Centre ground' which Trump shifted.

Or, Trump represents a rump of Americans whose grievances are based on what they see as a decline in the Superiority of the 'Legacy Americans', a concept that reaches back to Jamestown and the Mayflower and leap-frogs over Slavery because it remains uncomfortable with the claim that all Americans are equal, and quite deliberately targets Black voters for suppression. This may be why numerically the 'Victims' cannot command more than 30% of the total vote, but are determined to use election law in the States to make, without any irony, Minority rule the norm. And in doing so, to impose policies the people haven't voted for and don't want.

Just one example -having congratulated the Supreme Court on 'returning' the case of Abortion to the State, why have those States not held Referenda to find out what the people in the State want? In a Liberal Democracy, you now have supporters of Trump who believe it has failed them, and who seem to have decided 'People Power' in the State is all that matters, and that rigging the voting system is the best way to achieve it.

But as they don't command a majority nationwide, and have half-wits, and some truly nasty people running for office, it will be interesting to see if they can transform their grievances into real power. Is it possible that voters have seen what Trump and his Apostles have to offer in terms of violence and disruption -and don't want that? We shall see soon enough.

[filghy2]

There have been some good posts by Filghy and Stavros about whether the Republican party under Trump is merely a more extreme version of the same insidious politics we saw with the tea party and before that with Gingrich in the 90s. They've generally convinced me that the party is not categorically different but was headed in this direction and primed by Trump's predecessors to tolerate more and more extreme behavior. And still I feel we've reached a tipping point where just about everyone who is female, gay, transgender, Black, Jewish, Muslim, or any visible minority should feel threatened by what they're doing.

There's been a lot of continuity, but nonetheless it's alarming how quickly the Republican Party has been taken over by the crazies and extremists. January 6 was obviously a watershed moment and all but a few quickly decided to acquiesce in election denialism and resist any accountability for what happened. Two years after Kevin McCarthy said there was no place in the party for QAnon he is now embracing them. Some Republicans are now talking openly about anti-democratic solutions and ignoring the courts.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...edpill-moldbug

I really wonder what is going through the minds of the more normal Republicans (politicians and voters). I know some have quit, but there's no sign of mass desertions. Are they in denial about what is happening? Do they think they can keep their positions by appeasing the crazies? Do they not care as long as they get low taxes and deregulation?

[filghy2]

[duplicate post]

[filghy2]

I have said it before, but I think the US system enables more extremists, weirdos and incompetents to enter public office than most other Liberal Democracies. Part of this is due to the absence of a proper membership roll and rules.

Well, you still got Liz Truss, and Jeremy Corbyn on the other side. The problem is that party memberships are very small (only 81,000 members voted for Truss) and tend to be people with more zealous views than the general electorate. In theory, there should be a corrective - extremists and incompetents lose the general election and the party chooses someone more appealing next time. However, this doesn't always work, especially if the electoral system allows minority rule.

I'm not so sure that a strict membership vote would have blocked Trump in 2016. I know he wasn't popular with the Party machine back then, but he seemed to have quickly become popular with the rank-and-file.

[broncofan]

But as they don't command a majority nationwide, and have half-wits, and some truly nasty people running for office, it will be interesting to see if they can transform their grievances into real power. Is it possible that voters have seen what Trump and his Apostles have to offer in terms of violence and disruption -and don't want that? We shall see soon enough.

Great post Stavros. I'm not sure whether this is an important point but I've talked to a few people close to Trump and either their love of how he denigrates others distorts their view of his capabilities or he has some quality that makes him very effective. I think it's a bit of both.

One thing I think he has is a kind of animal cunning. There are some very good poker players who are not very good analytical thinkers even though understanding probabilities and pot odds is an important part of the game. They have an intuitive sense when someone is concerned, or bluffing, or strong, and no hesitation to use this information to their benefit.

For a guy who cannot even master the simplest subject, Trump seems to tap into the Republican zeitgeist and pick up themes and grievances very easily. Sometimes they are grievances he shares but there's something very predatory about the way he exploits other people's grievances. I also think that in the US there is a tendency to idolize rich people who are not very exceptional. Many can't imagine using their intellect for a more worthy aim than pissing in a golden toilet so the guy who does it must be a genius. But if you look at the way people respond to Elon Musk, who makes a fool out of himself on twitter everyday, it shows the kind of built in advantage someone has if they're rich and openly foolish.

Here he is saying chess is a simple game because the board is only 8 by 8. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1584537377837490177

But back to the main topic that you addressed...our system can be and has been manipulated, both through court stacking and gerrymandering.