The Russians are Coming, the Russians are...oh, they're here...

[Stavros]

1) It did not make sense for Ukraine to blow up the dam; 2) the Russians could have done it to deter an attack by Ukraine across the Dnipro River; 3) it was an accident caused by a mine blowing up as the Reservoir level became unsustainably high.

But, a) it is the Russians who have laid mines all along the Dnipro River, and b) the Russians who allowed the water levels in the Reservoir to rise. And c) the Russians really don't care who dies or what is destroyed. It might be the case that Putin thinks Ukraine does not exist, that it is part of Greater Russia, but if that means him in effect murdering 'his own people' he wouldn't care about that either. This is nihilism in politics taken to depths of despair, with short, medium and long term consequences that reach beyond Ukraine, Crimea and Russia and could affect food poverty in those countries in Africa that rely on imports from what is now a flood zone.

Devastation from Kakhovka dam collapse could take decades to heal | Ukraine | The Guardian

[Stavros]

Reports from Russia indicate that 'the Kremilin' is moving against Prigozhin. Whether or not this has come from the military -specifically Shoigu and Gerasimov- and/or the FSB, rather than Putin is not known. On one level this suggests Putin has suddenly lost control, given that he promoted and protected Prigozhin. On the other hand, he may have decided Prigozhin's time is up and agreed to have him arrested.

What is not clear is how much support Prigozhin retains in the Wagner outfit, or the regular army, as some of his associates have denounced him, but probably to keep their jobs, and crucially -for them and the leeches in Moscow, the benefits of the Wagner people in Africa stealing as much of the continent's minerals as they can carry away, killing any and everyone who gets in their way. Given the shrinking opportunities to make loadsamoney in Russia, Wagner's access to wealth suggest to me that while it might be forced out of Ukraine, its African robbery machine will be held in place, though this does also suggest a further setback for Russian forces in Ukraine.

A wilder scenario has supporters of Prigozhin moving against Shoihu and Gerasimov, but this suggests the loudmouth has more support in the Kremlin than he probably has.

Either way, it is a further indication of the mess Putin has created with his ambition to be remembered as the 21st Century version of Peter the Great.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Russia investigates ‘mutiny’ as Wagner chief says ‘evil’ military leaders must be stopped (theguardian.com)

[filghy2]

Letting another headstrong personality build his own private army - who would have thought that would lead to trouble? So much for Putin's reputation for cleverness.

[Helvis2012]

Dude, Russians. Same shit generation after generation. Strong men and sheep.
Any questions?

[Stavros]

Sergei Lavrov said yesterday Russian support for the Governments of Mali and the Central African Republic will continue, though it is not known how Wagner forces on the ground have reacted to their leader being sent into 'exile' in Belarus; nor is it clear why Russia would retain the services of a para-military group that was supposed to be integrated into the Russian Army. Because Wagner gave Russia 'plausible deniability' when Wagner was -and is- accused of summary executions, mineral theft and corruption -it needs a 'proxy' army in Africa but just as the FSB in Russia has dropped charges against Wagner as Putin said the perpetrators of the killings in Russia would be brought to justice, this is further proof that governance in Russia is an incoherent mess, or to put it another way: Putin hasn't got a clue what to do next.

This is a long article from the Brookings Institute in 2022 that gives a fair overview of Wagner/Russia's antics in sub-Saharan Africa-
Russia’s Wagner Group in Africa: Influence, commercial concessions, rights violations, and counterinsurgency failure | Brookings

Wagner and Russia are here to stay in Africa, says Kremlin’s top diplomat – POLITICO

[filghy2]

The extraordinary bad luck of people who cross Putin continues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-russia-wagner

[broncofan]

There's no phrase for backpedaling across the rubicon.

[Stavros]

The man who fell to earth...

[filghy2]

There's speculation that Prigozhin may not have been on the plane, but even if that was true his days are surely numbered. They will get him eventually.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-is-convinced

The obvious lesson, which he should have known, is that if you move against Putin you must follow it through to the end. There's no negotiated compromise with this guy.

[Stavros]

Autocracy, Orthodoxy, Nationalism -these were the pillars of Tsarist Russia under the Romanov. Leonard Schapiro argued that the Bolshevik Revolution against the Romanov's ended up replicating what it had replaced: the Autocracy of the Tsar became the Autocracy of the Communist Party. The Orthodoxy of the Church became the Orthodoxy of Marxism-Leninism; Nationalism remained what it was before and after.

I see no change since Putin came to power. The Autocracy is just more crude but just as violent; the Orthodoxy a vacuous assembly of accusations that Russia's enemies are 'Neo-Nazis' and 'Degenerate'; while the Nationalism remains what it has always been.