Covid-19 Politics

[broncofan]

The WHO put out a statement yesterday that was very unclear and which a lot of virologist and epidemiologists are strongly disagreeing with. They said that asymptomatic spread of Covid is extremely rare. What virologists are saying is that a distinction needs to be made between people who are truly asymptomatic, meaning they get covid and never get symptoms, and those who are pre-symptomatic, meaning they will get symptoms but it is during the incubation period after infection when they are not yet symptomatic.

Most virologists have said they think quite a lot of transmission is occurring from people who are presymptomatic. In fact, there's one study swabbing the backs of people's throats and finding the highest concentration of virus on the first day of symptoms. The WHO did not release data with this statement and it's not even clear what they said is true with respect to true asymptomatics.

Anyhow, many people interpreted what they said to mean that only people with symptoms are spreading the virus. This is extremely unlikely to be true, but believing it's true might make people think they're safer than they really are around others outside their household. Hopefully they issue a clarification.

Edit: For those who are interested this is a good thread from the director of Harvard Global Health Institute https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/statu...69131652427776

[trish]

I'm not sure if anyone is interested in sharing but ...

Between working on physics and mathematics, or playing music, or hiking, biking or just plain sitting on my porch reading it has always been pretty easy for me to find ways to occupy myself without the company of others.

I don’t worry too much about transmission from surfaces. I don’t wash my mail or leave my Amazon purchases sit. I do wash my hands after handling. I don’t wear a mask outdoors (unless protesting) but I always have one with me in case. I do wear it in public indoor spaces. I know people who haven’t been to the grocery store in months. I’m guessing they’re the one’s who initially bought up all the toilet paper. I gotta visit the grocery store every week. A girl can’t live without wine, beer and a good eggplant or two.

I’m not in quarantine but my live interactions with people are largely constrained to a small “bubble” of friends. But that’s not all that different for me from life as usual.

[blackchubby38]

The WHO put out a statement yesterday that was very unclear and which a lot of virologist and epidemiologists are strongly disagreeing with. They said that asymptomatic spread of Covid is extremely rare. What virologists are saying is that a distinction needs to be made between people who are truly asymptomatic, meaning they get covid and never get symptoms, and those who are pre-symptomatic, meaning they will get symptoms but it is during the incubation period after infection when they are not yet symptomatic.

Most virologists have said they think quite a lot of transmission is occurring from people who are presymptomatic. In fact, there's one study swabbing the backs of people's throats and finding the highest concentration of virus on the first day of symptoms. The WHO did not release data with this statement and it's not even clear what they said is true with respect to true asymptomatics.

Anyhow, many people interpreted what they said to mean that only people with symptoms are spreading the virus. This is extremely unlikely to be true, but believing it's true might make people think they're safer than they really are around others outside their household. Hopefully they issue a clarification.

Edit: For those who are interested this is a good thread from the director of Harvard Global Health Institute https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/statu...69131652427776

I saw that WHO statement on Twitter last night before it was immediately taken down. Then I heard today the representative from WHO clarifying what she meant to say.

Look I don't want to sound like I'm disparaging the World Heath Organization. But they have to make sure they do a better job at making statements about Covid 19. Because even my initial reaction to claim that it was rare for asymptomatic to spread disease was, "WTF". So imagine what someone's reaction who has been dismissive about the whole situation is going to be.

[broncofan]

I saw that WHO statement on Twitter last night before it was immediately taken down. Then I heard today the representative from WHO clarifying what she meant to say.

Look I don't want to sound like I'm disparaging the World Heath Organization. But they have to make sure they do a better job at making statements about Covid 19. Because even my initial reaction to claim that it was rare for asymptomatic to spread disease was, "WTF". So imagine what someone's reaction who has been dismissive about the whole situation is going to be.

I have a family member who sent a mass text to everyone based on the WHO statement that said good news, unless someone's feeling sick they can't give it to you. They didn't come out and say that but that was the gist. My first thought was there's no way we've spent two months having 35000 new infections per day if only people with sore throats and hacking coughs were transmitting it. We're stupid but we're not that stupid.

That's a pretty sizeable fuck up bc people's response to it was predictable. And if presymptomatic transmission is indeed 40-60% like some virologists estimate, even worse.

[broncofan]

I don’t worry too much about transmission from surfaces. I don’t wash my mail or leave my Amazon purchases sit. I do wash my hands after handling.

Very interesting Trish. I think you and Blackchubby and Stavros probably have the more "healthy" view on this whereas Knighthawk and I take the slightly neurotic approach. Don't worry Knighthawk I don't think neurotic is an insult!

There is a difference between a theoretical risk and a practical risk. In hospital settings where there's tons of virus everywhere and on hard, nonporous surfaces, transmission from contaminated objects probably does occur. On softer, porous surfaces, it is possible but probably not likely. The fact that you wash your hands after you handle the objects and mail is more than sufficient. When I leave a package outside, I am calming an anxiety about something remote and very unlikely.

I think your first paragraph sort of gets at the root of who has had more trouble with some of the public health measures and who hasn't. I have a good friend who had a kidney and pancreas transplant who goes to the store (like three times a week), who socializes outside his home, when getting covid-19 would likely kill him since he's on immunosuppressants. Yet for me, I miss banter, and eye contact, and laughing but not that much.

Yet I do kind of yearn for all of this to be over. That's why I obsess about the vaccines and treatments. Dr. Fauci, who is not known for making rash or politically motivated statements, said he does think a January date is possible for a vaccine if everything goes exactly right. Of course, there are obvious risks in moving before there's good enough safety data.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/01/anthony-fauci-on-covid-19-reopenings-vaccines-and-moving-at-warp-speed/

[trish]

Just want you to know that I do wash each eggplant thoroughIy before use.

I streamed The Navigator: A Medieval Odyssey the other night. The scene (spoiler alert) where Conner is discovered to have brought the black death back to the village - whether intentional or not - seemed like a real betrayal. The last thing I want to do is give the virus to someone vulnerable. It reminded me that our “social bubbles” are sacred trusts. Everyone in them should be cognizant of each other’s risky behaviors.

[fred41]

Always enjoyed being a bit of a loner so the day to day stuff isn’t killing me...I don’t crave large groups of people and never have. I wear a mask, because it’s necessary to do so to get into almost any store and it makes others more secure. For the most part I don’t even mind wearing one - once I switched to the cloth ones. I used to wear nitrile gloves (the black ones tattoo artists use cause they look cooler than the others..lol), but now, because it’s Summer and too hot and humid - only on subways cause they’re icky...and stores that require them. When you think about it - your mask protects others, but your gloves protect you.

When I cook, I use way more dried herbs and alternatives to raw vegetables, not cause it’s safer, but it’s often easier and quicker. But I really miss eating in restaurants, going to concerts and music performances (I’ve had four shows cancelled so far this year, and interestingly enough..haven’t been refunded for any of them yet)..and going to the gym. I have a terrific small gym only two blocks away and spent a lot of time there. to replace it I use power blocks and some basic calisthenics, but I’m getting a bit soft because I do almost no cardio anymore...I hate running outside in the city and I don’t have room for an Exercycle. I cut my own hair which isn’t so hard as long as you keep it short and use a fade in the back instead of a hard line. I’m thinking about doing it myself from now on, but it’s messy and I like my regular barber - his cut isn’t noticeably better, but I knew I liked going to him because normally, in the past, I avoided conversation from other barbers, but with Mike I often initiate it. Also, he keeps a big turtle in the shop and shows new movies on his screen. I appreciate stores that managed to stay open so I spread my consumerism around and use all the local ones. I have at least four liquor stores around so I switch them up regardless of price differences. I even discovered some great local businesses that I wouldn't have if it wasn’t for Covid - such as a local health food store that sells awesome salmon burgers.

Initially I feared the virus, because I needed to interact with my Dad, but now I can’t and he’s already had it anyhow. Other than that, I only fear it like any nuisance such as a cold. Whenever I get a cold, flu, bronchitis it’s never been life threatening - just the coughing part always lasts a long time. I’ve had pneumonia once or twice but that wasn’t that bad either. I do wash my hands when I get home but usually in a perfunctory way.

But I’m tired of this. All the beautiful advantages to NYC - countless restaurants, bars, clubs, shows...all moot because of this. It’s the only reason some folks pay such high taxes to live here, and now....for what? I’ve understandably had an outside stadium concert cancelled...but it’s okay to congregate shoulder to shoulder at a protest. I’ve had one protest right off my block. It was peaceful, but you can definitely tell some people were just there because it’s the only show in town, with the added advantage that many take place in parks...and let’s face it, if some of those stores were open for business and occupied, there wouldn’t have been as much looting. Sad.

On another note, what do you folks think about what’s going on in Seattle? (Obviously no need to answer if it’s over by the time you read this..lol).

[fred41]

So I wake up this morning to a beautiful day - not as humid so I turned the window fan off (I still didn’t get the A/C Home Depot was supposed to deliver two weeks ago - delayed because of Covid they said grrr.), I open the newspaper (well the app anyway) and what do I see: https://nypost.com/2020/06/12/hundre...e-coronavirus/
We’re you there Blackchubby38 ? Lol.

[broncofan]

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...update-june-11

Here's an update on vaccines. Moderna has released more data. Insiders at Moderna were accused of using the safety trials to paint a rosy picture to pump the stock price and sell. I don't know whether that's true but the data has been generally good, though one person had an adverse reaction and got sick at the highest dose of their vaccine and they're going with an intermediate strength dose. I had read elsewhere that Moderna plans to begin the Phase 3 in July with 30,000 people.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...-antibody-news

And here's a blog post from a few days ago about monoclonal antibodies. The antibodies can be used prophylactically or as a treatment and most of the companies are testing them for both purposes. Derek Lowe makes the point here that it's not just a matter of what's most effective clinically but what dose is required to be effective because manufacturing ability for them is limiting. Many of these are entering human trials now and a few companies have already set target dates for early fall. I may have posted this before but antibody treatments were very effective in ebola, a much more deadly disease, so there is hope they can be a good bridge to a vaccine. Regeneron's antibody cocktail brought Ebola's survival rate from about 50% to 94% when their antibodies were administered early so there is history of their effective use in infectious diseases.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/REGN-EB3

[blackchubby38]

What's the point of doing contact tracing if you can't ask the person where they have been and/or who they have seen.