Coronavirus

[Laphroaig]

According to John Hopkins University's tracker site, there is a 4.29% mortality rate (total deaths divided by total confirmed cases). Something like 1 out of 25 people is extraordinarily high --- and far more fatal than common influenza!

Of course, given the worldwide shortage of test kits, the number of infections it likely much higher. On the other hand, through, JHU's data necessarily relies countries accurately (i.e., not under) reporting the number of deaths. I am highly suspicious that the data from China and Iran under reports fatal cases. Also, for example, JHU's data does not even include North Korea, where South Korean and western defense analysts have seen clear signs of a massively deadly COVID-19 outbreak.

All of which is to say, i simply shocked by how many messages I'm getting on Grindr right now looking for hookups. I think it is absolutely insane that people are still hooking up with randoms!

The problem with those mortality figures is, as you state, there's nowhere near enough testing being done yet. In the UK, those with symptoms or who think they have symptoms, are being asked to stay at home and basically only phone for an ambulance if they are at the point where they can't breathe. Testing is only being carried out in hospitals. There are estimates going round that as many as 50-75% of people infected may be asymptomatic, so the only way we're going to get reasonably accurate mortality rates is if, once this is over, large numbers are tested to see if they have had the virus.

[filghy2]

On another note, I'm quite surprised there has been so little discussion on this topic here, given it's about the only thing people are talking about elsewhere. I'm a member of an escort review site in Australia, and their thread on this topic already runs to 113 pages.

Even if people are interested only in porn it should have occurred to them that their favourite pastime is likely to be affected - sex between strangers is not exactly compatible with social distancing. Wouldn't the lock-downs in place in California and other US states be affecting porn production?

[Stavros]

On another note, I'm quite surprised there has been so little discussion on this topic here, given it's about the only thing people are talking about elsewhere. I'm a member of an escort review site in Australia, and their thread on this topic already runs to 113 pages.

Covid 19 touches on so many issues.
On one level, there is the morphology of an epidemic that becomes a pandemic, where and how it begins, how it moves out of its original core to different places. There is the morphlogy of the virus itself, how it works, how, if at all, it can be controlled and eve eradicated, the risks of mutation, of, over time, of drug resistance.

At the level of social policy, an epidemic and pandemic begs questions of health care provision, both its geographical extent and the quality of provision as it varies from one place to another. Even though overwhelmed with cases, the public health services of Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the UK appear to be better equipped to deal with the virus than the US, though a full account of the quality of care cannot be made right now.

The politics touches on competence, but also the risk-averse nature of some goverments which have initially tried to either dismiss the viral threat or just hope it goes away. Leading to extreme measures which in the UK and the US have led to public expenditure levels that would have been considered insane a year or two ago. Again, while so far governments and politicians have been exposed by the pandemic, we don't yet know how the public will judge them when the crisis is over.

The positive spin on this is that science has known for years that a viral infection of this kind is and has been a latent threat (see the video by Bill Gates linked below). We don't yet know if the death toll will reach as high as the Influenza Pandemic that began in 1918 and if I doubt that it will, it is because we have learned so much about disease since 1918. Politicians be wary, an effective vaccine may no be about to solve the problem. We have been here before with HIV, so caution is needed, and the patience that science is based upon.

Lastly, human behaviour must be inspected. The pristine forests of sub-Saharan Africa, of Indonesia and Siberia, of the Amazon Basin are full of pathegens we know nothing about. There are animals and insects that have never come into contact with humans. Our plunder of these remote areas in pursuit of gold, timber or anything else that can be sold for profit is releasing into the environment pathogens that should say where they are. And in some of those areas of Africa and Asia, there is a cultural gap between what we eat in the 'West' and what 'they' eat on the edges of rain forest -from primates to vermin. If ever there was a risk in the communication of disease and meat consumption, here is where the edge of risk is breached. It is not just a market in China that poses this risk, and if we are to prevent new diseases from entering the chain, this links must be broken. Not one person in this world needs to eat a chimp or a rat, there are alternatives.

Disease and the environment -warning re photos of 'meat' for sale in Africa-
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...r-covid-19-aoe

Bill Gates in 2015
https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates...dy?language=en

[filghy2]

The politics touches on competence, but also the risk-averse nature of some goverments which have initially tried to either dismiss the viral threat or just hope it goes away. Leading to extreme measures which in the UK and the US have led to public expenditure levels that would have been considered insane a year or two ago. Again, while so far governments and politicians have been exposed by the pandemic, we don't yet know how the public will judge them when the crisis is over.

One thing that has been shown yet again is that governments seem unable to take strong action until a crisis is already under way. Most countries have waited until infections took off before imposing severe restrictions, even though there was plenty of warning from what happened in Asia and then Italy. There seems to be a deeply ingrained tendency to hope for the best, to assume it can't happen here because we're different and to believe stories that downplay the threat.

The same thing happened in the global financial crisis, when all of the warning signs were ignored because too many people wanted to believe that the good times would continue indefinitely, or didn't want to admit they'd erred in allowing the financial sector to get out of control.

Some people are saying this will be a wake up call that changes the way we do things, but I'm not so sure given the past history (including since the financial crisis). Some things will be done, but once the crisis passes we will lapse back into old habits and make excuses that it's too costly to change, it's unlikely to happen again, it was all China's fault anyway, and so on.

[Nikka]

Colombia avianca airlines didn´t allow me to change my ticket and I had to buy a new one
fucking narcos one more reason to hate

[Fitzcarraldo]

Colombia avianca airlines didn´t allow me to change my ticket and I had to buy a new one
fucking narcos one more reason to hate

Are you in Colombia or back home?

[bryanferryfan2]

Eating vermin, in my opinion has to be curbed worldwide by implementing farming techniques that don't encroach on those ecosystems. Maybe we should also curb birth rates to minimize the effects of food deserts . Less people the more we can keep threats like this from getting a foothold globally.

[blackchubby38]

On another note, I'm quite surprised there has been so little discussion on this topic here, given it's about the only thing people are talking about elsewhere. I'm a member of an escort review site in Australia, and their thread on this topic already runs to 113 pages.

Even if people are interested only in porn it should have occurred to them that their favourite pastime is likely to be affected - sex between strangers is not exactly compatible with social distancing. Wouldn't the lock-downs in place in California and other US states be affecting porn production?

The lock-downs in the California and other US states have affected porn production. Almost of all the sites that I have memberships to have said they have ceased production and when it comes to the content they have already shot, they changed their release schedule.

There could be a couple of reasons why there isn't much discussion on the topic here.

1. People are talking about it on other message boards and social media.

2. Because it is the only thing people are talking about elsewhere, they're looking for an escape and they don't want to have deal it for a few moments in the day. Everybody's life has pretty much come to halt within a span of 2-3 weeks and there seems to be no definite answer as to when things will get back to normal.

Sporting events have been canceled and movie releases postponed. A majority of people can't go to work and they're being told to stay home. There also seems to be this overreaction to people going out for a walk and getting a breath of fresh air. So yeah I'm not going to blame someone if all they want to do is come here and look at and talk about porn.

[filghy2]

A little part of me wants to entertain the theory that this was intentional to let authoritarian & nationalist regimes enact martial law..

I doubt it was intentional, but you are right to be concerned that this crisis will be misused. DoJ has asked Congress for powers to detain people indefinitely without trial, although it looks like the request will be refused. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ice-doj-powers

[holzz]

I get the lockdowns and rationale behind them.
I can see where the conspiracy theorists are coming from though.