Coronavirus

[broncofan]

If you genuinely wanted other peoples' thoughts why do you ignore their responses and just repeat the same dubious point?

In fairness I asked him where he heard the quote and he couldn't well admit he heard it belched out of Sean Hannity's bloated face. Or saw it in the Washington Times, a paper known to peddle "conspiracy theories about Barack Obama" and "neo-confederate historical revisionism". And the official remarks from Biden's speech provide the context so how to answer...

[broncofan]

For those who are interested in how the U.S' response to Covid has been in the past year here is a ranking system from a non-partisan thinktank in Sydney, Australia. Out of 98 countries with publicly available data, the U.S. ranked 94th based on their criteria. They state their methodology in the link I provide but it seems reasonable enough though some may disagree on emphasis.

https://interactives.lowyinstitute.o...ance/#overview

How did we get there? No testing all through February. No federal contact tracing program throughout the pandemic. A President who did not encourage people to wear masks after April 3, 2020 when all health agencies were certain there was presymptomatic viral spread. A President who told people the virus would disappear, that it was "a flu", that a vaccine would be available in three months, that doctors were paid to list deaths as covid deaths, that hydroxychloroquine was a cure when it was no better than placebo, and who encouraged people to violate their state health orders.

Imagine watching all of that without a complaint and then being upset that Biden thinks it may take a few months for the trajectory of the pandemic to change. For those curious about Biden's plans, read about them here https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...d-19-pandemic/

[Stavros]

I have just posted some comments on Covid in the Politics thread in which I lamented the absence of co-ordination across the UK, the EU, and, as is evident, in the US. If the US is in a worse state (but in terms of death per capita the UK is riight up there), it is not just the failure of leadership by Trump, personally ignorant and indifferent to the illness, but surrounded by some of the world's most brilliant virologists, epidemiologists and policy makers -but across the US where Governors such as Ron DeSantis and Kristi Noem seem to be staking a claim as the most stupid, lethal and incompetent politicians in American history. If I were to be inflammatory, I would accuse them of being accessories to murder and expect them to be so arrested and charged.

Unless, and until the people in charge of policy making stop pretending to be clever, as in 'Everyone their own Einstein' the dismal state of Covid in the US will continue to waste lives and resources, even though I suspect most Americans are actually behaving sensibly. Biden has a mountain to climb before the US can see the Summit, but its not a natural mountain, but one consisting of man-made lies, sloppy procedures, a lack of preparedness, etc. The US will get there in time, but on key stats like hospital admissions I see no horizons. The damage caused by Trump and his Disciples is going to linger for years.

[filghy2]

Here's an interesting article on whether we can expect the virus to evolve in a less deadly direction over time. That used to be the accepted wisdom, on the basis that killing too many hosts is not optimal for a virus's replication. However, it seems that may no longer be the case: depending on various factors it can go the other way. The key factor for this virus may be the long time period between infection and death.

https://theconversation.com/will-cor...-deadly-153817

[broncofan]

That is a good article. It's easy to understand why there would be selective pressure for transmissibility to increase as people try to avoid getting infected. And while generally one might expect decreasing virulence their reasoning about why we don't see it makes sense too: if it takes about 23 days between infection and death someone who dies has nearly the same chance to transmit the variants that got them so sick.

But did it say why virulence would increase? Maybe sicker people are shedding more virus. Maybe they have a more contagious presymptomatic period.

For the sake of us developing herd immunity it is also important whether it is evolving quickly enough to evade neutralization by our antibodies and t-cell response to previous variants. The UK variant has some more ominous characteristics but seems to be neutralized by vaccines and the antibody response of people who have gotten sick. The South African variant is neutralized less effectively by antibodies developed both through vaccination and natural infection. It's possible people who have been vaccinated or infected don't have as much protection against infection but still good protection against serious disease but we'll see.

Another question I have that I've seen discussed elsewhere: while there will be antigenic drift based on the number of infections do some of our attempts to eradicate the virus drive mutation? Treatments such as monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, and even vaccines put selective pressure on viruses that create escape mutations. The argument is that if you have a treatment that doesn't have 100% efficacy the genetic makeup of the virus that is transmitted is resistant to treatment. Anyhow that's how the argument goes but I still think the more significant risk is based on how many hosts the virus sees. It's probably no coincidence we're not seeing variants emerge in places that have only minor outbreaks. Besides, even if a treatment drives mutation it would still be worth pursuing if it's very effective.

[broncofan]

It's easy to understand why there would be selective pressure for transmissibility to increase as people try to avoid getting infected.

Even more so the fact that more transmissibility is an advantage for the virus in every environment.

[filghy2]

But did it say why virulence would increase? Maybe sicker people are shedding more virus. Maybe they have a more contagious presymptomatic period.

It's not clear from the article. It must depend on the balance of different factors in the trade-off model, but the paper they linked to is not freely available.

[morim]

Stupid news/media does not report that the common flu virus so far as been more dangerous. The only thing they seem to report is information that causes more panic and stupidity.

I completely agree!!!

[sukumvit boy]

"Evolving Threat" ,interesting article from the 20 August 2021 issue of "Science" magazine on how and why corona viruses mutate ,the various variants and what we can expect from Sars CoV-2
https://www.science.org/content/arti...-virus-do-next

[morim]

Coronavirus: lies, lies and more lies