Coronavirus

[binneu]

Have you ever studied any statistics at all? If you had you would know that statistic models don't work by explaining a single data point (one country in one year). They work by finding the explanation (or model of the world) that best fits the full range of data. In fact, it is mathematically impossible to fit any model to a single data point. Whether a single data point fits the explanatory model proves absolutely nothing. Your continued insistence that people must explain Germany 2020 and nothing else matters shows that you have no idea.

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?

[binneu]

You did implicitly ask him(the state) to do it because as a citizen you expect as you say that the state will ensure the health system works for all the citizens. However if there is a rapidly transmissible disease that can produce a sudden influx of patients who need intensive care you would have to consider special measures of some sort to prevent the system being overwhelmed and compromised in its ability to deliver health care across the board.

Then guess how many percent of intensive care beds in Germany were occupied by corona patients in the "pandemic's state of emergency".
And guess how many beds and staff have been increased or decreased since the beginning of the "crisis"?

[binneu]

According to your logic, there was no dangerous virus in Germany until November 2020, then it became deadly for about 6 months, but ceased from May 2021. What is your explanation for this, given you claim that neither control measures nor vaccines are effective?
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

In 2020, there is no conspicuity to be seen, and I am not saying that, but rather the data analyst based on the official data of the Federal Statistical Office.

I'm not saying anything... I only say that your (mainstream) story is not conclusive!

[rodinuk]

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?

Covid cases do not equal excess mortality. Other diseases and causes of death exist

[binneu]

Your argument also misses the obvious point that countries with worse outbreaks are also likely to impose more severe restrictions. It doesn't prove that restrictions are ineffective, any more than higher death rates among seriously ill people prove that treatments are ineffective.

Thats the map you wanted maybe?


You say "probably" yourself...
Do we have any study which measure brings how much?

I never said that in all countries there is nothing conspicuous...
The problem I see, where will this lead to? When will we get back to a halfway normal state?

[rodinuk]

I’m living the same life I did prior to lockdown, I only wear a mask when I am shopping and I probably won’t even need a booster. In England there is no longer a lockdown either so I am free to come and go. That’s more than halfway normal.

[broncofan]

But you may have seen that in 50% of European countries there is almost no excess mortality?

I have data from more than just European countries. Very few had no excess deaths. Slightly more had lots of excess deaths but recorded covid cases that are slightly higher than excess death. I think you’ve conflated these two things which doesn’t speak well of your honesty or thinking ability. Name the countries you think have no excess death.

You also implied that r0 for flu is calculated only from symptomatic cases while for covid is calculated from testing everyone with pcr tests. I will post some links for you later when I’m home but suffice to say this is more dishonesty from you.

[filghy2]

I'm not saying anything... I only say that your (mainstream) story is not conclusive!

That is not true because you have stated previously that you don't believe the virus is dangerous and that the mainstream are deliberately exaggerating it because they have some agenda. You are not just being agnostic.

I never said that in all countries there is nothing conspicuous...
The problem I see, where will this lead to? When will we get back to a halfway normal state?

If there are many countries where there has been a significant effect how could this be consistent with your argument that the virus is not dangerous and that measures have not reduced the danger in other countries? Again we have this dishonest double standard where other people must explain every single case but you never have to explain any inconsistencies with your argument.

The answer to the last question is pretty obvious. We can go back to something more like normal when a large enough percentage of the population is vaccinated that the risks of serious illness are manageable. Why do you claim it is some kind of terrible imposition that people might have to get booster shots or sometimes wear masks?

[filghy2]

You say "probably" yourself...
Do we have any study which measure brings how much?

You want me to research European policies for you, even though you live in Europe and I don't? Just in case your search engine is broken, here are three studies I found with a quick search.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...-policies.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164261/

I know you are unlikely to ever understand this, but all statistical analysis is based on probability. Nothing is explained with 100% certainty. We can only ever say that the data appear to be consistent with some explanation with a certain probability. It is hard in this case because the behaviour of the virus depends on many factors, especially human behaviour. Any restrictions can only work if people follow the rules. Are you one of those people who refuses to obey the rules and then complains that they aren't working?

[filghy2]

This article discusses the latest US research on the effectiveness of vaccines against the Delta variant. It shows that unvaccinated people are 5 times more likely to be infected than the vaccinated, and over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized or die.
https://www.vox.com/2021/9/11/226683...ie-of-covid-19

It looks like our adversary may have vacated the field, but it's interesting that Germany is lagging behind other European countries in vaccination rates, though not as badly as the US. The level at which vaccination rates slow significantly gives an indication what what percentage of the population may be vaccine-hesitant.