US Elections 2020

[Stavros]

If Trump loses the election his response to the Coronavirus will be the main reason why he loses it. But if he wins reelection, the idea that Democrats will be/are weak on crime and civil unrest will be one of the reasons why.

I add a question to your succinct view: what will the impact on the candidates be if they cannot hold mass rallies? Which of the two is likely to benefit from this? It appears to be Biden, but so far he has not been subjected to public scrutiny or tough questions from hostile journaists.

[blackchubby38]

I add a question to your succinct view: what will the impact on the candidates be if they cannot hold mass rallies? Which of the two is likely to benefit from this? It appears to be Biden, but so far he has not been subjected to public scrutiny or tough questions from hostile journaists.

It benefits Biden because I don't think he has the energy to speak in front of a large crowd for an extended period of time. I think Biden is going out of his way to make sure he doesn't get tough questions from hostile journalists. That's why he won't do a sit down interview with Chris Wallace from Fox News. Who is tough, but I think fair.

[Stavros]

As I predicted, it has been discussed 'at the highest level'. No debates, then. And maybe no election. The man certainly wants to go down in history for his unique style and decision making...

"Donald Trump on Thursday morning floated the idea of delaying November’s presidential election, justifying the extraordinary suggestion by repeating his false claim that widespread voting by mail from home would result in a “fraudulent” result.

Trump’s incendiary proposal was dropped in a Thursday morning tweet, as the US was reeling from bad economic news, digesting the death toll of 150,000 having been reached in the coronavirus pandemic and preparing for the funeral of Congressman John Lewis in Atlanta. In it he claimed without evidence that “universal mail-in voting” would lead to “the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT election in history”.
Trump, pontificating that the result would be a “great embarrassment to the USA”, he raised the prospect of a postponement. “Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???” he tweeted."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...onomic-figures

[Stavros]

I understand only Congress can change the date of an election, but the point is one Murdoch will have rammed home, because he did it in the UK in the 1980s: every day, every hour, every minute, sow doubt in people's minds. The election will be rigged, it will be fake, it will be abused, it will be fraudulent. The Democrats will steal the election, they can't be trusted, they don't care. Say it in every media platform there is, all day and every day, so that it soaks into the minds of the voters.

Note: Herman Cain has died from Covid 19, a miserable way to die. Probably the most senior Republican to do so?

[Stavros]

It benefits Biden because I don't think he has the energy to speak in front of a large crowd for an extended period of time. I think Biden is going out of his way to make sure he doesn't get tough questions from hostile journalists. That's why he won't do a sit down interview with Chris Wallace from Fox News. Who is tough, but I think fair.

I agree with your points, and in fact, probably because I live here, I don't think I have ever seen Biden in a debate. Whatever. I think he leaning either to Susan Rice, or Kamala Harris.

[MrFanti]

Because their would rather believe what the Clueless Buffoon In Chief, a person who has been downplaying the CO-VID 19 Global Pandemic from the very beginning says over the health experts, and in reality it isn't a Democratic problem, it's a Trump problem because he doesn't take any responsibility at all for his negligence and his administration failure to the global pandemic and come up with a nationwide plan on how to deal with the virus,instead of letting states fend for themselves. and blaming everyone else around him.

Part of the problem is that the Black community still refuses to acknowledge the high rate of homicide by us and within our own community.
And folks that do are quickly shut down (Terry Crews for example) - which is why the "BLM" stuff has more holes in it than Swiss cheese.

That being said, there's more to voting on someone than just COVID-19. Hillary lost in part because she didn't diversify her audience - she ignored the middle class and the Sanders supporters and as result, she's sitting on the bench now. Biden has the opportunity now to seize the Sanders supporters but he's not doing the best job of it - however he's still doing better than Hillary did at capturing this voting group.

[MrFanti]

If Trump loses the election his response to the Coronavirus will be the main reason why he loses it. But if he wins reelection, the idea that Democrats will be/are weak on crime and civil unrest will be one of the reasons why.

Now when it comes to the states with highest murder rates, yes its true that some of them are red states. However, the cities they occur in have long history of being run by Democrats.

New Orleans.-- The last time they voted for a Republican was at the end of the 19th century.
St. Louis.- The last Republican mayor was in 1949.
Detroit.- The last Republican mayor was in 1962.
Baltimore.- The last Republican mayor was in 1967.
Chester.- As alternated back and forth between the two parties.
Gary.- The last Republican mayor was in 1943.
Chicago.- The last Republican mayor was in 1943.

That's just the mayors. There is a very good chance that the Democrats also made up a considerable part of the city councils in those respective cities.

I will point out that the Democratic Party has changed over the past 50-60 years.

Now as we have discussed before, there are other reasons for a city having high crime rates. But poor leadership is one of them. Just look what's happening here in NYC. So it is fair to say that Democratic party bares some of the blame when it comes to certain cities having a history of high crime rates.

That mayor list is key and why it's absurdly ridiculous for those mayors to blame Trump and the Republicans for THEIR CITY VIOLENCE issues when they haven't had a Republican/Libertarian/Independent mayor in DECADES.

[filghy2]

If Trump loses the election his response to the Coronavirus will be the main reason why he loses it. But if he wins reelection, the idea that Democrats will be/are weak on crime and civil unrest will be one of the reasons why.

Now when it comes to the states with highest murder rates, yes its true that some of them are red states. However, the cities they occur in have long history of being run by Democrats.

I still struggle to see how anyone who is not a member of the Trump cult could think that the problem of crime so outweighs all other issues facing the US, most of which would be exacerbated by Trump's reelection, that it warrants overlooking all his misdeeds. Trump has clearly contributed to the coronavirus debacle through irresponsible statements and neglect. I can't see anything that Biden has said or done that could be linked to the crime surge - which doesn't seem to be an area where the Federal government has much of a role in any case. That is, unless people want to tear up the constitution and turn the US into a authoritarian police state, which is where things will be headed if Trump is reelected.

I think there's a degree of spurious correlation in the association between party control and crime rates. Big densely-populated cities inherently tend to have higher crime rates. They also tend to be more politically liberal. That doesn't necessarily mean that one causes the other, because both are related to the characteristics of big cities. Liberal big cities also generally have higher-than-average incomes. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/a...cities-2018-12 Does that prove that Democrats are better at economic policy? Necessarily, because it may just reflect the fact that big cities tend to attract economic activity.

Also, one thing that is often overlooked is that crime rates are still way below levels of 40 years ago.

[filghy2]

Not necessarily, because it may just reflect the fact that big cities tend to attract economic activity.

Just to be clear

[Stavros]

That mayor list is key and why it's absurdly ridiculous for those mayors to blame Trump and the Republicans for THEIR CITY VIOLENCE issues when they haven't had a Republican/Libertarian/Independent mayor in DECADES.

As Filghy2 has indicated, the apparent correlation between Democrat run cities and crime is elusive at best, spurious at worst.

In the first place, are Democrat run cities, in fact, badly run? Are the Mayors incompetent, corrupt, and ignorant? Historically, it is true, Chicago has been a Democrat city, but was it not when Mayor Daley was Mayor that Saul Alinsky was at his peak as a community organizer because this Democrat run city had neglected the housing, education and voting issues around which Alinsky based his campaigns? Daley may have been a Democrat, he cannot be said to have been a Liberal.

And, with regard to crime, is it not the case that crime is often concentrated, geographically, into compact areas and is not city-wide? I imagine I could live in Chicago or Detroit for a year and never experience crime, depending on where I am. And when the crime-ridden areas are identified, are there not also issues of poor people chasing diminishing resources and turning on each other to extract what they can through dealing, for example? Again, we return to narcotics and guns, the two issues Mr Fanti seems reluctant to debate.

Second, in the last 50 years, the trend toward urban life has grown, but with this paradox: big tax paying, labour-intensive businesses have vacated the city, low-tax low-wage service jobs have moved in, granted the exception of those cities with major financial concerns -Investments in NYC, Petroleum in Houston, for example- with the accumulated profile that cities today raise lower rates of tax revenue than they did 50 years ago.

Third, most of the Democrat run Cities are in Republican run States where Republican legislators constantly block liberal laws associated with increasingly Liberal cities, and starve them of funds, indeed the division in the USA that is alleged to consist of the Coastal States (Liberal) with the Flyover States (Conservative) obscures the real division that exists within the States where it is marked by Urban-Rural concentrations of voters with oppoing views, and where for example, in a state like Ohio, one can imagine the voters in the counties think Cleveland is a cess-pool of depravity.

In this balance of forces, it appears the County wins over the City, the Republicans over the Democrats -you are blaming Democrats for problems that originate with so-called Conservatives.

It is thus facile to provide lists of Democrat run cities and squeal failure! What the US has done is develop a fetish for low taxes to the extent that most Americans have been impoverished twice over: through wage stagnation, and the economic of austerity with Republican legislatures withdrawing the funds that cities need if the people who live in them are to be given more opportunities to work and live better lives.

Conclusion, for cities and states be they Red or Blue: RAISE TAXES, SPEND THEM ON THE PEOPLE. Nothing short of a massive re-distribution of wealth can deal with the crisis we are all in, a remedy that applies to the UK too.

Cowards, flinch -Courage calls to Courage Everywhere.