The Boris Johnson Show: Not a Comedy

[Stavros]

All great except your list of incorrect facts and that the country isn't sliding into anything like bankruptcy.

Like a lot of people you seem to have a great deal of confusion between actual fact, your opinion, future possibilities (or not) and media, agenda-led rumour/gossip.

But you keep on with your largely solo conversation if you like it that much.

A conversation cannot be 'solo', so it is your contribution that makes this what it is. I don't know what your definition of bankruptcy is, but mine looks at the facts with regard to the UK's income and expenditure and it doesn't look good. When dealing with the Conservative Party, or the Brexit Cult Party if that is what its current ID is, always assume the worst. The assumption the Govt makes is that the 'Covid Bounce' will pay for the money that has been borrowed, but once the bounce has ended and we crash back to earth, Brexit will dominate the news.

Obviously you choose to ignore or dismiss the crisis in UK-EU trade, and the stunning fact, and it is a stunning fact, that UK firms that have left the Single Market are now desperately trying or plannng to get back into it by transferring production from the UK to the EU, the Netherlands in partcular. These are facts, not opinions, but are reported on an almost daily basis in The Guardian, a newspaper you probably don't read because it is in your view 'left-wing' and thus by definition a source of useless information, while you happily indulge any source that doesn't report the facts because for them, and I suspect for you, Brexit is a dream come true, whatever the reality might be.

You have nothing to say about Somerset Capital moving its assets out of the UK and into the EU that its founder claims he is pleased to have left; just as you have nothing to say when you idol Sir John Redwood advised his stockholders to invest anywhere but the UK, indeed, in the EU which he too is pleased we have left. Hypocrites all, they enjoy your devotion and support -why?

Yes, the future could be even worse than I fear, or we could just be living through a 2-3-5-10 year transition during which the UK adapts to the fact that it has left the largest market in the world next door to trade at a disadvantage with states that are thousands of miles away even on the other side of the world, rather like Cuba when its closest trading partner was the USSR. I am not a prophet, and I hope I am wrong. Your predictions are the best because they don't exist. Your judgment perfect, because you never make it.

But you keep up with your largely solo ignorance if you like it that much.

[obslam]

If you stuck to facts, we could have a proper conversation, but combining few facts with a large dose of your fairly extreme opinions gives you little credibility. Adding in the insults gives you even less.

I work in economics and safe to say I don’t have many worries about the economies of either the UK or the EU in the next 20 or so years.

Anybody who thinks Covid will cost the country money long-term has the economic understanding of the likes of Peston or Kuenssberg - that is virtually nil.

[Stavros]

But when it comes to facts, where are the ones that prove whatever point it is that you want to make about Brexit?

You have nothing to say about the fact that the UK has left the EU, yet Northern Ireland remains in the Customs Union, a peculiar exit if ever there was one.

UK traders forced out of the EU are now scrambling to get back in, taking jobs with them.

Somerset Capital is not so much banking on the succcess of Brexit which its founder has supported since 2016 and probably before then, as banking in the EU because it has more confidence in the EU than it does in Brexit Britain-

-ditto Sir John Redwood's advice to the customers of the firm he advised, to invest anywhere but Brexit Britain.

And now the UK Government, realising that taking the UK out of the EU and its agencies is damaging the UK's reputation for science, is pumpiing £250 million into the EU's Horizon programme that the UK was supposed to have left behind because we don't need the EU. Only of course, we do. Did Get Brexit Done ever mean anything? Or did it mean, Get Britan Back into the EU?

It does appear that you are not worried about the EU and UK economies, but is it because Brexit will be revealed to be a sham, as piece by piece, the UK finds ways of effectively returning to the EU and its Single Market albeit in an informal manner? Because I see no evidence, and certainly not from you, that the UK will be better off outside the EU, but a lot of evidence that just about everyone, other than the DUP , Steve Baker and Sir William Cash, want to be back in the EU where we belong.

Is there a greater insult to this country than a man who has such naked disregard for the rule of law, the truth and elementary ethics in public life? Instead of defining a Conservative by a Boris Johnson Loyalty Test, which Alan Duncan clearly failed, Theresa May should have had the courage to sack Johnson when he was Foreign Secretary and indeed, expel him from the Party.

Where is the outrage over the Jennifer Arcuri affair that proves Johnson and his sweetheart transferred money from London's ratepayers into her pocket so she could enjoy privileges and a 'leg up' for her business interests as he was getting his 'leg over' with her? In any age other than this age of impunity, this shabby little man would have been forced out of office, and probably spend the rest of his life writing garbage for the Telegraph, that bastion of Brexit published by two rich men who are not stupid enough to park their Billions in the UK or live here.

But as someone who expressed such indignation that there is a Politics & Religion Section in a Porn forum, and claim I write to myself when you obviously read what I write, unless you actually tell us what the economic reality is now, and is going to be, there will be no debate. Just a sneering discontent that does you no favours.

[filghy2]

I work in economics and safe to say I don’t have many worries about the economies of either the UK or the EU in the next 20 or so years.

Anybody who thinks Covid will cost the country money long-term has the economic understanding of the likes of Peston or Kuenssberg - that is virtually nil.

You must be a financial sector economist!

I guess these people don't understand economics either.
"This chapter examines the possible persistent damage (scarring) that may occur from the COVID-19 recession and the channels through which they may occur. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term losses are expected to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024."
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2021
The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on economic activity in recent months is only the beginning of the story. While the rapid and unprecedented collapse of production, trade, and employment may be reversed as the pandemic eases, historical data suggest that long-term economic consequences could persist for a generation or more.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...mics-jorda.htm

[obslam]

You must be a financial sector economist!

I guess these people don't understand economics either.
"This chapter examines the possible persistent damage (scarring) that may occur from the COVID-19 recession and the channels through which they may occur. Importantly, financial instabilities—typically associated with worse scarring—have been largely avoided in the current crisis so far. While medium-term losses are expected to be lower than after the global financial crisis, they are still substantial, at about 3 percent lower than pre-pandemic anticipated output for the world in 2024."
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...ook-april-2021
The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on economic activity in recent months is only the beginning of the story. While the rapid and unprecedented collapse of production, trade, and employment may be reversed as the pandemic eases, historical data suggest that long-term economic consequences could persist for a generation or more.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...mics-jorda.htm

Aren't they global forecasts? Most UK forecasting has us back at pre-Covid/Brexit economic levels by Q3 or Q4 2022.

[filghy2]

Aren't they global forecasts? Most UK forecasting has us back at pre-Covid/Brexit economic levels by Q3 or Q4 2022.

They are making a general point and it's hard to see why it wouldn't apply to the UK, given it's been one of the worst-affected countries. The real issue is when (and if) you return to the previous growth path, rather than the level. If you get back to the previous level by the end of next year that would still be well below the previous growth path.

It's understood nowadays that serious recessions can have long-term effects (hysterisis) , contrary to what many economic models assume. Since the 2008 financial crisis many economies have never returned to their previous growth path, including the UK.

Obviously, any return to normality depends on achieving herd immunity through vaccination, including against virus variants. That is not guaranteed.

[Stavros]

Brexit remains the unknown factor in any recovery, while the Goverment may increase taxes selectively, and the pressure to keep interest rates low or go below zero is strong. Thus-

"The government deficit will increase to levels not seen since the Second World War, and with it the national debt. By the end of the 2020/21 financial year, the government will most likely owe in debt more than the value of everything produced in the economy in one year. This will alter the complexion of the UK’s public finances for decades to come."
https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/vision/...after-covid-19

And, from a survey of 90 economists by the FT-

"The vast majority of those responding to the FT’s annual survey said UK GDP would not regain its previous level until the second half of 2022, or later. Many said political mismanagement of both the Covid-19 crisis and of Brexit had ensured the UK would underperform other richer countries — and that the biggest risk to the economy in 2021 was that an over-thrifty chancellor would damage the recovery by tightening fiscal policy too early. “The UK will be among the last, if not the last, of the high-income economies to regain its pre-pandemic size,” said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee."
https://www.ft.com/content/5c51299a-...6-a42a6317c324

But, again, how will UK trade perform if there is no re-negotiation of terms with the EU or some means of reducing the costs and bureaucracy of trade with the EU?
What happens if there is a major dispute with China that disrupts production of commodities on which the UK relies and cannot make owing to lack of capacity?
What of the financial services sector, whose future is still a matter of conjecture, but a sector which has seen Billions of pounds of capital removed from the UK and put into the EU?
How will the transport sector look over the next 10 years, the millions of cubic feet of office space, and the employment profile of the under-30 age group?
If there is no return to normal, how can the word 'recovery' mean anything other than a return to the low-growth, low-performance economy stangled by over a decade of Conservative mis-management?
Will there be a crisis in relations between Scotland the Govt in London, and given the riots in Belfast, a deterioration of relations between Northern Ireland and the Govt in London? These all have economic consequences that are negative in the short term.

One thing absent in all this are markets, given that we are living under a Communist, command-economy Government in all but name, and not a Marxist-Leninist one either. In time the furlough schemes will end, with the assumption that unemployment will fall. I don't know, but as a natural born pessimist, it doesn't look as good to me as it does to some people, and I have zero faith in Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.

[Stavros]

With local elections taking place on the 6th of May, the Conservatives remain ahead in the polls, in England if not in Scotland or Wales. The predicament Boris Johnson is in is therefore something of a paradox. He and his Ministers claim the British public are not that interested in who paid for the refurbishment of the apartment at the top of 10 Downing St. They dispute the claim that Boris Johnson said he would rather dead bodies pile up than impose another lockdown on the UK. As for the precise relationship between his Govt and 'Private Enterprise', those relationships are in the well-worn phrase, 'good for business', though as Max Hastings pointed out two hours ago on BBC Radio 4's The World at One, Johnson has so re-written the rules of Government that it is no longer a matter of principle, let alone basic decency, if friends and backers of the Prime Minister make a load of money off Government contracts, or if former Prime Ministers use their access to Government to lobby on behalf of their mates and a business in which they stand to make millions. In astonishing insight, Hastings pointed out everyone in the country knows Boris Johnson is a liar, and so does Boris Johsnson. A pity that the Govt of Iran hasn't twigged and released Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe from prison, as she is there in part because Boris Johnson lied to Parliament about the reason for her visit to Iran that led to her arrest. An act which, in those now distant days when the UK Govt had 'standards' would have led to him resigning as Foreign Secretary, or Theresa May sacking hm.

The Downing St apartment problem has a simple solution -create a separate designated residence for the Prime Minister somewhere in Whitehall, paid for by the taxpayer with more than a couple of rooms and kitchen wth a modest two-ring gas cooker and a microwave (or, as Nigella Lawson now calls it, a MeeCroWarvy).

Did Johnson really say he would rather dead bodies pile up than impose a new lockdown? I think so, but not out of spite, as it is the kind of flippant remark laced with poison he is apt to make, such as his dismissal in the Commons of vile attacks on women MPs on social media as 'humbug' (an all but meaningless word to anyone under 40), and the older claim he would lie down in front of the diggers to prevent them creating a third runway at Heathrow, a Commons vote for which he was famously absent from the House when it came time to vote on it.

As for Brexit, I was wrong when I said billions has left the country, its owners - Leave fanatics- preferring banks in the EU, because Leave is for Little People like me and you. The actual sum has now passed a Trillion Pounds. A fisherman in Devon says Boris Johnson has betrayed him over Brexit, for which he foolishly voted. Exports to the EU of milk and other dairy products are down 90%. That the Govt is crowing about inward investment suggests that Brexit is transforming the UK into an 'investment destination' but this is not odd if a Trillion quid is leaving while a Billion is arriving, for what is now an 'Investment Destination' is what used to be called a 'Third World' country. Which is what Brexit is creating here. With a Third World Government to match it.

And if Max Hastings is right, and if Dominic Cummings, who is not a Conservative, has tapes (tapes again? yes, tapes) of the flippant and idiotic things Boris Johnson is apt to say, the calculation will be that having achieved his ambition of becoming Prime Minister, having 'got Brexit done', and been at least part-time steward of the Covid Recovery, Johnson will decide he can make more money being an entertainer and writing garbage for the Telegraph (and a 900 page book explaining why he is he greatest Prime Minister since Churchill) -and he will quit. And quit before the end of 2021.

I just hope Max Hastings is right, and so does Boris.

[Stavros]

"BAILIFFS are poised to knock on the famous black door of Number 10 Downing Street - after it emerged Boris Johnson failed to pay a £535 debt.
The PM's bill appeared on County Court Judgement files last October with the payment still "unsatisfied."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/149314...-october-paid/

I doubt the Bailiffs will be knocking on the door, but one does wonder why on this occasion Boris Johnson couldn't find a Hedge Fund Manager or a wealthy mate to pay his bills, since he doesn't seem to think he should pay them himself. Pity Greensill wasn't in a position to buy the debt. Is there an informal rule that states f you are rich and powerful you don't need to pay your bills? Hasn't Trump a terrible record in settling his bills?

[Jericho]

The dead cat deflecting from Betty's speech and the loss of even more of our rights.

"BAILIFFS are poised to knock on the famous black door of Number 10 Downing Street - after it emerged Boris Johnson failed to pay a £535 debt.
The PM's bill appeared on County Court Judgement files last October with the payment still "unsatisfied."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/149314...-october-paid/

I doubt the Bailiffs will be knocking on the door, but one does wonder why on this occasion Boris Johnson couldn't find a Hedge Fund Manager or a wealthy mate to pay his bills, since he doesn't seem to think he should pay them himself. Pity Greensill wasn't in a position to buy the debt. Is there an informal rule that states f you are rich and powerful you don't need to pay your bills? Hasn't Trump a terrible record in settling his bills?