Seven Year Itch: Scratching Brexit

[Stavros]

On the seventh anniversary of the Brexit referendum, Boris Johnson, who sort of led the Leave campaign, has insisted that the UK has benefited from voting Leave. You can read his snap verdict in three twits here-
Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) / Twitter

Meanwhile, polls suggest that a majority now think leaving the EU was a mistake, though John Curtice has drilled into the stats to give a more rounded assessment, here-
Britain has changed hugely since 2016. This is how the Brexit vote would go now | John Curtice | The Guardian

What is of interest is how the EU has changed. From being at its origin a Franco-German economic relationship, with the UK because of its size and financial input becoming the 'third rail' of European Integration without ever committing to it absolutely, the EU has been weakened financially by the loss of the UK's input, though in some areas, such as financial services, trading that used to be done in London is now done in Amsterdam. And though there has not been a meltdown in London, financial services businesses have been relocating to Amsterdam, Paris and Milan, thus-
Brexit News: Bankers Leaving London for Milan in Italy - Bloomberg

It is also the case that because of the damage it has caused, those in the EU who were tempted by Exit have had to admit that in the EU's present form, it would be a bad choice -again, in Italy where there was a small 'ItalExit' movement.

Now consider the other change: the third most important member of the EU now is Poland. With its border with the Ukraine and its hosting so many refugees from the war, Poland has stepped up, as it were, to become more trusted now than it was five years ago. Moreover, as recently announced, Wroclaw is to be the focus of Intel's new generation of chips, a move designed to wean the world off Asian dominance in the industry. But also a sign of how the Poles managed to negotiate such a good deal when Intel said it was committed to Germany, thus-

"A team from an agency promoting the development of Wroclaw put together a presentation highlighting its quality of life, family facilities, schools, bike lanes, swimming pools and economic and demographic data.
Intel executives were also impressed by Wroclaw being home to Poland's American football and basketball champions."
How Poland snagged Intel's multi-billion dollar investment | Reuters

Some people, like Nigel Farage, believed -and hoped- that Brexit would be so successful and desirable, it would lead to the break-up or even the dissolution of the EU. The opposite has happened, just as NATO has entered a new era of expansion rather than contraction. What this suggests is that People, States and Markets prefer to be together than apart.

It is as fundamental a rejection of the idea of Brexit as can be found, though it leaves the UK out in the cold, on its own, wishing it had not made such a foolish mistake.

[Fitzcarraldo]

But the UK voted for it twice, right?

[Stavros]

No, there was just the one Referendum in 2016. Boris Johnson tried to make the 2019 General Election about Brexit, with his slogan 'Get Brexit Done' but there were other issues in play, not least the dismal public profile of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose faults, admittedly, were magnified and exaggerated by the Murdoch press and other hostiles.

[obslam]

But the UK voted for it twice, right?

They voted in once, and out once.

Regarding the out, most don't regret it but there are a very noisy mini-minority who won't face reality and insist on keeping crying about it. For the vast majority it's made virtually no difference to their lives, and don't let the numpties try and persuade you otherwise.

[Fitzcarraldo]

They voted in once, and out once.

Regarding the out, most don't regret it but there are a very noisy mini-minority who won't face reality and insist on keeping crying about it. For the vast majority it's made virtually no difference to their lives, and don't let the numpties try and persuade you otherwise.

If it made no difference, then why bother to leave?

[filghy2]

Regarding the out, most don't regret it but there are a very noisy mini-minority who won't face reality and insist on keeping crying about it. For the vast majority it's made virtually no difference to their lives, and don't let the numpties try and persuade you otherwise.

And your evidence for this is what? Strangely, when I google 'Brexit polls' I get lots of reports on different polls saying most people in the UK now think it was a bad idea.

I think things are bad when the best argument Brexiters can put forward is that it hasn't been as disastrous as some people predicted.

[filghy2]

If Brexit has had no negative impact then how do you explain why the UK economy has been performing worse than other countries? For instance, UK GDP is still below it's level at the end of 2019.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...fings/sn02784/

[Stavros]

If Brexit has had no negative impact then how do you explain why the UK economy has been performing worse than other countries? For instance, UK GDP is still below it's level at the end of 2019.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...fings/sn02784/

The man in question has no grasp on the reality of Brexit because he doesn't much care about it, even though he works in a sector that has seen thousands of jobs and billions of dollars worth of trading disappear, to which his response is a shrug of the shoulders because his portion is secure, and that's all that matters. The moaning he refers to is a very real complaint about the decline in the standard of living, the loss of trade, the loss of revenue, the increase for small to medium sized companies of the paperwork they have to deal with to such an extent they have either gone bust or moved to the EU while 'rules of origin' components of the trade deal 'negotiated' by Boris Johnson and Lord Frost may yet become an obstacle to the future of British industry.

Meanwhile, no comment on the bulk of my original post, which was about Poland's ascendancy in the EU, and the impact Brexit has had on those in the EU who thought it was a good idea, and now see what a calamity it was, with a real impact on their own politics -eg, Le Pen in France. obslam doesn't read my posts, and I don't know if he has any interest in Poland or the EU.

[Stavros]

They voted in once, and out once.

Regarding the out, most don't regret it but there are a very noisy mini-minority who won't face reality and insist on keeping crying about it. For the vast majority it's made virtually no difference to their lives, and don't let the numpties try and persuade you otherwise.

The people of the UK never voted to join the European Economic Community -the Conservative Manifesto in 1970 did say if elected the new Govt would open negotiations on joining, and it did, but went ahead to conclude an agreement that was not at the time endorsed by any Referendum.

When Harold Wilson returned to power in 1974, he dealt with the Labour Party's internal disagreement with the UK's membership of the 'Common Market' -and in Labour, it was the Left, led by Tony Benn who wanted to Leave (with a young Jeremy Corbyn cheering him on from the margins)- by ordering a Referendum in 1975 to endorse the UK's existing membership, thus the question put to the people in 1975 was "Do you think that the United Kingdom should stay in the European Community (the Common Market)?". I voted yes.

I am not the only person in the UK who has had my freedom of movement taken away. For some people wo have married EU citizens the 'new arrangements' have been either a nuisance or a nightmare, with families having to choose between the UK and an EU state. I now go to Germany twice a year because friends who are part German part British chose Germany.

As for Eurostar, well we used to get on a train in London, get off in Paris, and there was just a basic 'show passport' at one end. Now the stations have to stamp passports and along with the Covid disaster, the service is in decline as costs mount and traffic numbers are down. The days when you could get a return to Paris for less than £100 are gone; the onward links to Amsterdam and the French Riviera are either gone or never materialized -ditto extending Eurostar to the UK's North.

Brexit: more bureaucracy, higher costs, falling revenues. If that's not failure, what is?

[obslam]

If it made no difference, then why bother to leave?

It made no virtual difference now or then. Long-term could be different.

Personally I wanted out because I wanted no place in the social experiment that numpty Major committed us to with his weak pushing through of the Maastricht Treaty, when he should have stood up for the actual and original aims of the EEC/EU.