Is war between China and the US inevitable? The Thucydides Trap.

[Stavros]

Although I am still sceptical of a war with China, the way in which Xi has used his 'activism' to change the status quo in places like Hong Kong, and in the Spratly Islands, suggests that at some point there has to be a resolution which satisfies the non-Chinese states -the UK with regard to Hong Kong; the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and Japan with regard to the Spratly Islands (and other isolated islands in the Pacific Region); while the internal campaign against Muslims in Xinjiang is proving impossible for external actors such as the US or the UN to deal with.

Xi is basically saying to the world what Milosovic did in the 1990s -'we are going to take a course of action, what are you going to do about it?'. I assume that collectively, the ASEAN powers could take some form of action against China, or at least open negotiations, yet China also assumes that the trading and investment relations it has with states like the Philippines will not deter its expansionist ambitions in the China seas and wider Pacific -in this context has Duterte weakened the Philippines by opting for a closer relationship with China rather than the US? Does Xi intend to end the autonomy of Hong Kong and integrate it into China as 'just another province' even if this violates the 1999 Treaty with the UK? Again, if he did, what is the UK going to do about it?

Far from going to war, Xi may calculate that China will get what it wants, and if the UN impose sanctions, so what? China can survive with sanctions, and in practical terms, how would Hong Kong be prevented from becoming a province of China? The question of Taiwan's independence offers a more stark proposition which Xi knows could be a step too far, but he has presented himself as the activist who no longer cares what China's rivals or competitors think because he has calculated they will not go to war but use forms of 'soft power' which China can ignore or deal with without reversing policy-creating what the Israels would call 'facts on the ground'.

The contrast is with Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, who has been at war with Yemen for nearly 7 years, highlighting the fact that just as Saudi Arabia went to war to impose its will -and failed, becoming sucked into a never-ending war that costs billions with no benefit in sight- so China could go to war and find itself in the same position -that a mghty show of power exposes a military weakness, just as some might point to China's brief war with Vietnam in 1979, considered a defeat in both political and military terms. But MbS is a risk taker, and so is Xi, but with what consequences?

The Philippines, on paper, cannot win this conflict with China, but if both sides lose control, will the US get involved? And what are the military solutions -the expulsion of all Chinese personnel from the occupied islands? Does this mean a US or international/UN force permanently stationed on remote islands to deter a Chinese attempt to 'take them back'? A conference to make a definitive and judicially supported idenity of who owns these islands has never happened, and with so many competing claims, would it be doomed from the start? Isn't this why China has decided to impose its will on the area?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/philippine...104530069.html

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/philippine...064434475.html

[Stavros]

Foreign Affairs Vol 100, No 4, July-August 2021, has a set of articles on China. I have read the overview by Jude Blanchette and recommend it to anyone with an interest in China and Xi Jinping in particular.
Blanchette goes through the purge of corrupt officials in the CPC that helped consolidate Xi's new leadership as a means of strengthening, indeed giving new life and purpose to the Party; the more worrying aspects of the economy -rising wages leading to global corporations moving jobs out of the country, a decline in annual rates of economic growth, with a decline in productivity- and the demographic 'time bomb' of an ageing population in a country which doesn't have as secure a pensions and welfare system that change needs to address.
Significantly, Blanchette discusses the 'risks' Xi is taking to ensure that in 10-15 years China will be the dominant Global power, with implcations for international relations in general, and for the Asian and Asian-Pacific region in particular. Whereas Mao was content to tell the Americans China can wait for 100 years before 're-uniting' Taiwan with the 'Mainland', Xi might be more impatient.

The article is mostly behind a paywall, but is worth a read -the opening paragraphs are here-
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-06-22/xis-gamble

The September/October issue has this article on bin Laden which is availabe in full here-

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-08-13/osama-bin-ladens-911-catastrophic-success

[sukumvit boy]

Thanks,sounds very interesting. I am currently reading"China a History" by John Keay and have read much about especially ancient and early China in relation to art and Buddhism.

[holzz]

war won't happen anytime soon.
China needs a market to sell its goods to. The USA needs a place so its huge firms can manufacture stuff, and at a way cheaper cost. No way people will pay $5000 for an unlocked iPhone - that's if US workers made them.
If China claimed the Spratley Sea, I don't see the US stopping them. to be fair, why should they? Only if China threatens Taiwan, and maybe more importantly South Korea or Japan, will they intervene.

[filghy2]

People made the same argument before WWI that war was unthinkable due to economic linkages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion

War's don't generally happen as a result of rational calculations. They happen because of politics, ideology and leaders' egos.

[holzz]

Britain nor France depended on Germany economically. But then back then there were severe tensions between them. France wanted revenge on Germany for the Franco-Prussian war and there also was the Anglo-German naval race. Nothing like that is happening now between the USA and China.

[rodinuk]

I think the South China seas and numerous islands are a subject of dispute and perhaps in the future the Moon will be the new area of dispute even?

[filghy2]

No serious tensions or rivalry between the US and China? Where have you been the past 5 years? Are you unaware of Trump's trade war? Have you never heard of Taiwan?

[holzz]

No serious tensions or rivalry between the US and China? Where have you been the past 5 years? Are you unaware of Trump's trade war? Have you never heard of Taiwan?

nothing that could potentially cause wars. there has been tensions between the West and Russia. Do YOU remember the poisonings in the UK, or warning shots? doesn't mean a war is imminent. shit like that happens all the time. comparing it to WWI is pretty silly at this point.

[sukumvit boy]

I think the South China seas and numerous islands are a subject of dispute and perhaps in the future the Moon will be the new area of dispute even?

109 countries signed the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which made it illegal to buy/sell land on the moon and other planets .However there is talk now about the need to update that treaty or create a new one.