UK Election June 08

[Stavros]

Even if they do win, I think May's finished after the election.
They'll have won in spite of her, not because of.
But, Craig Mackinlay getting charged, another attack on the NHS...Call it pie in the sky, wishful thinking, whatever.
I'm feeling that dramatic collapse.

Indeed one of the bizarre twists of this election is that it now appears it was a profound mistake for Mrs May to go for it, I don't think it will be as calamitous as Cameron betting the country on staying in the EU, because the Tories will still be the government, but this is twice in a row that the Tories have assumed their public persona of invincibility is tripping them up. The decision to hold an election and her failure to maintain the policy on social care for more than a few days has damaged her reputation for sound management, but it doesn't offer much hope to her opponents as there are no credible alternatives, for while I think David Davis would be the obvious choice, I don't believe he has the support of the party around the country.

This is in a way a continuation of the internal war over Europe the Tories have been fighting since 1972 because we don't really know what the negotiations will bring, although I think there will be an agreement on the rights of residence for EU citizens in the UK, and UK citizens in the EU. The UK I think will have to commit to maintaining its financial contributions to the EU as long as it remains a member, but we don't know when the formal relationship will end, and the longer it takes the more we will pay. But the real stumbling block will be on trade. A 'bad deal' would surely be no preferential access to the Single Market after a relatively short cut off point -say December 2019- a good deal would be a phased withdrawal which gives the UK a few more years to detach itself, with other phased withdrawals from, say, the Fishing and Agricultural sectors. But as the EU is in command of these talks, we cannot know how sympathetic to UK demands they will be. The border with the Irish Republic is a conundrum that could prove to be harder to deal with, as it may come down to various scenarios linked to access/no access to the Single Market.

Confidence is a curious commodity in politics, among the population at large, Mrs May had it in abundance at the start of the election, Corbyn very little; if anything it has been reversed. In the longer term this may suit Jeremy Corby who will want to remain leader of the party while he maintains the process of reforms to 'return' it to the membership as long as it doesn't threaten John McDonnell's Stalinist grip of policy. Right now a close look at the parties suggests decisions are made by a Poliburo in Labour, and a Church Fete Committee in the Tories.

Would you like another fairy cake with your tea, vicar, or a pint?

[bluesoul]

^^^ miss may. i stopped reading there. really... ?

but seriously [insert serious face]. fuck theresa may.

i had a point and forgot it. there is a seriously fucking sexy dame in this airport and i have designs to fuck her. chances her i will not, but my chances are greater if i don't think about whatever the fuck you guys are on about in this thread.

sorry if you read this

i will report soon if i "score"

[Jericho]

Worth a "wager" though if Corbyn is good odds!

They were when i put a bet on!

[Stavros]

A pathetic response from both party leaders last night to two compelling questions:

-when asked by a nurse why her wages in 2017 are the same as they were in 2009 Mrs May droned on with the established Central Office mantra: there is no magic money tree -so suddenly all that money the UK will save when it leaves the UK has disappeared? Was it not supposed to be spent on the NHS?

-Corbyn was asked if he would press the red button to launch a nuclear weapon if the UK has been attacked and he couldn't give a coherent answer to the precise question, just waffle on about not being in a position to need retaliation -what he could have done is make it clear that ot all nuclear weapons are Hiroshima-type bombs as nuclear warheads have for some time had a lower yield and are sometimes referred to as 'tactical' or 'battlefield' weapons which, if anything, makes them more likely to be used than the Hirosihima style 'strategic' weapons capable of wiping Moscow off the map. This has meant that within NATO first use has been part of the 'deterrence' strategy, and was indeed confirmed by Geoff Hoon in the last Labour government when he said in 2003

"Let me make it clear the long-standing British government policy that if our forces or our people were threatened by weapons of mass destruction we would reserve the right to use appropriate proportionate responses which might ... might in extreme circumstances include the use of nuclear weapons." The follow-up question (from David Dimbleby) "But you would only use Britain's weapon of mass destruction after an attack by Saddam Hussein using weapons of mass destruction?" Hoon replied: "Clearly if there were strong evidence of an imminent attack if we knew that an attack was about to occur and we could use our weapons to protect against it."
https://www.opendemocracy.net/confli...clear_3693.jsp
(A rather long but useful overview of nuclear weapons policy in the UK since the 1940s)

I believe Corbyn was opposed to this policy, but as I have pointed out in posts above, Labour does not seem to have looked in depth at Trident or the future of the Navy and thus the debate on nuclear weapons doesn't seem to me to have made any advance on the position the UK has had since the 1950s. A missed opportunity to re-set this whole debate, not least the more pertinent one that the UK outside the EU may not have enough money to sustain a nuclear strike force which is anyway mostly controlled by the USA without whose permission the UK cannot use nuclear weapons.

[Stavros]

Meanwhile the Conservative Party campaign stumbles on suggesting there is no central command. Three examples:

1) Yesterday Craig Mackinlay was charged by the police with breaking election law in the General Election of 2015 in which he was elected MP for Thanet South, it relates to the party's election expenses. Mackinlay saw off a challenge from Nigel Farage of UKIP who believes the Tory vote in Thanet South will collapse and this time the fight is between Labour and UKIP, but Farage has been wrong before.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40129826

2) Yesterday Boris Johnson (Foreign Secretary) and Michael Fallon (Defence Secretary) both said the party will not raise taxes, even though their party manifesto does not say this, thus Michael Fallon:
In an interview with The Daily Telegraph today Sir Michael made it clear that income tax "absolutely" will not rise under a new Conservative government.
While Mr Johnson told BBC's Newsnight: "We will bear down on taxation and we have absolutely no plans to raise income tax."
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-06-03/s...-under-tories/

3) The Tory pledge on Housing has also changed, thus:
The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.
Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would be let at significantly less affordable rents.
...in an interview on Friday with trade magazine Inside Housing, minister Gavin Barwell admitted the party was planning to continue to build homes with higher rents and was not in fact reinstating traditional socially rented council housing.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7769866.html

So, questions now arise as to who is making policy and what the policy is, because the Manifesto doesn't tell us. But will the media take the bait and ask Mrs May awkward questions about tax and housing?

[peejaye]

You forgot to mention that lovely gentleman "Philip Hammond", he got his figures mixed up over HS2 by a mere £20 billion! Not sure what programme it was? Newsnight possibly? Cause; the BBC haven't mentioned it!

[Stavros]

You forgot to mention that lovely gentleman "Philip Hammond", he got his figures mixed up over HS2 by a mere £20 billion! Not sure what programme it was? Newsnight possibly? Cause; the BBC haven't mentioned it!

I might have done in an earlier post, but either way Philip Hammond is still alive, though you won't see him on tv or hear him on the radio. A curious absence for one of the most senior politicians in the country who may be considered 'second-in-command' to Mrs May, assuming there is someone in command of the campaign. It is of course possible Hammond boarded a blue bus for Kettering and has never been seen again. Or was it Redditch?

[peejaye]

He'll be counting his money somewhere!
Up to his neck in all sorts of things is that guy, ask former swimmer Sharon Davies; Some dirty waste company decided to build an incinerator at the bottom of her "Cotswolds" garden a couple of years ago, Hammond was a director!

[holzz]

that debate on friday was a whole heap of bull. BOTH the PM and Corbyn dodged questions, and looked out of place.

[peejaye]

I don't watch them because I know my politics & how I will vote but suspect if Corbyn was dodging questions it's probably because they were about his opinions from 30 years ago which doesn't concern him or his supporters over him becoming PM. Elections should be about Policies & making sure they're implemented!
May probably had no idea as usual I suspect.
Today we hear a statement from her re. terrorism; Enough is enough! And........? That's it!
Goodbye & thanks for coming!